The Guardians will approach MLB’s 2026 Trade Deadline with some interesting decisions to make.
With Jose Ramirez and Angel Martinez likely to still be on the IL as the deadline approaches, the Guardians will have to evaluate what their team is likely to be in need of when their best player as well as their current slugging leader make their returns. One would THINK that a team that is steadily in the bottom of all offensive categories except on-base percentage would still be in the market for some slugging, particularly from the right-handed side of the plate.
The number one place on the team where there is no clear internal option is for one more high leverage reliever, preferably one that bats left-handed. Of course, every team in MLB will be hoping to find a high leverage reliever and a right-handed power threat at the deadline. Will Cleveland be willing to do a little overpay to get one of these players? …It doesn’t seem like the kind of thing they typically do… but I suppose the Lane Thomas deal kinda qualifies.
The trickiest category of potential acquisitions is a starting pitcher. The Guardians’ rotation is strong. However, how likely is it that all five of them will make it through the season, because the depth behind them is practically non-existent. Personally, I’d be delighted if the Guardians shocked us and added another front of the rotation arm and showed willingness to let Cantillo or Cecconi become multi-inning weapons in the pen. But, I don’t expect that kind of move, and admit it probably makes sense to focus your resources on improving the lineup and bullpen. So, I’m not going to spend time below focusing on the starters the Guardians could target. If they do, great. If anything, I’d see them doing a 2024 Matthew Boyd-type deal where they find a pitcher who is rehabbing they can take a flyer on. (But, they do also have Ben Lively somewhere who may fit that category).
I see the Guardians being willing to consider trading prospects for major league help, but I also suspect they will look to trade some of their own players even independent from acquiring help for now. I assume, at this point, that they will trade Franco Aleman, who should be an asset in a deal for help now. Otherwise, I’m not sure why he wouldn’t be with the major league team at this point. Bo Naylor probably gets moved for a comp pick at best, but more likely a lottery ticket-type prospect. I think they may deal Steven Kwan to a team who believes they can fix what ails him as a hitter, as many of his underlying skills remain. They’re not going to get much for Kwan, though, so imagine him as more of a third-piece or a player they trade for a comp pick/lottery ticket, also.
Now, on to the categories of teams… Contenders who are unlikely to make a deal with the Guardians:
Yankees, Braves, Phillies, Red Sox, Rangers, Brewers, Cardinals, Dodgers, and Diamondbacks
Division rivals who probably won’t make a significant deal with the Guardians:
White Sox, Tigers, Royals and Twins
Teams who should be open for business:
Orioles, Mets, Pirates, Reds, Giants, Athletics and Rockies.
Contending teams who are creative enough to pull off a mutually beneficial and significant trade with the Guardians:
Astros, Blue Jays, Rays, Mariners, Marlins, Cubs, Nationals and Padres.
The Angels
Angels
Brief Summary of the Above: The category of contender and non-contender is pretty fluid, especially in American League where only a handful of teams are over .500. I had the Red Sox as open for business for a while, but they are now back in the thick of the hunt, same for the Rangers. But, the Angels should never be counted on for making a reasonable trade to help rebuild their franchise. They don’t make sense and we should stop expecting them to ever do so, whether or not they fire their GM. It’s their owner that’s the problem and he isn’t trading Reid Detmers, Jose Soriano, Zach Neto or Jo Adell, as much as it would make perfect sense to trade all four given their current state. However, the Angels will trade veteran relievers and journeymen, so they are given some options in the lists below.
Targets: Hitters:
The Blockbusters:
Jeremy Pena, SS, Astros, Yordan Alvarez, DH, Astros, Brent Rooker, DH, A’s, Ketel Marte, 2B, Diamondbacks, Yandy Diaz, DH, Rays.
Analysis: I do not expect any of these players to move. However, I do imagine a scenario where some team makes an offer too good to refuse for teams like this who are willing to bet on their developmental systems and undertake more extensive rebuilds, and Cleveland might have the ammo to do that kind of deal… but certainly not the inclination from anything we can tell. (Just to be clear – any team acquiring Yordan is giving up their top four prospects, PLUS. He’s that good. Also, Marte would have to approve any trade).
The Reasonably Attainable:
Willi Castro, IF/OF, SH, Rockies, 29 years old – 113 wRC+ vs. LHP in 2026 (96 for his career) – under team control through 2027 at $6.5M AAV.
Ildemargo Vargas, IF, SH, Diamondbacks, 34 years old – 135 wRC+ vs. LHP in 2026 (95 for his career) – FA in 2027
Joey Wiemer, OF, RHH, Nationals, 27 years old (rehabbing from hand injury) – 223 wRC+ vs. LHP this year (130 for his career) – under team control through 2030
Spencer Steer, OF, RHH, Reds, 28 years old – 184 wRC+ vs. LHP (124 for his career) – under team control through 2028
Luis Robert, Jr., OF, RHH, Mets, 28 years old – 153 wRC+ vs. LHP (140 for his career) – club option for 2028
Jose Siri, OF, RHH, Angels, 30 years old – 161 wRC+ vs. LHP (79 for his career) – under team control through 2028
Mark Vientos, DH, RHH, Mets, 26 years old – 128 wRC+ vs. LHP (114 for his career) – under team control through 2029
Casey Schmitt, IF, RHH, Giants, 27 years old – 140 wRC+ vs. LHP (99 for his career) – under team control through 2029
Taylor Ward, OF, Orioles
Analysis:
As usual, the most interesting names on this list would be the most difficult to acquire in Wiemer or Steer, but that will not stop teams from inquiring to get an established lefty masher you can put in the lineup. I do wonder if Aleman could be a big piece of interest to the Nationals who have many bullpen troubles, though, and I feel like there’s a potential fit there, if Wiemer is healthy.
If the Guardians want to gamble that a strong lefty-mashing season vs. a so-so lefty mashing career can carry through October, Castro or Siri should be available at very reasonable costs. It is fair, of course, to wonder how much either would help. I don’t think Vientos is gonna interest anyone as a platoon DH, but I’d be in on Luis Robert. I think he would solve Cleveland’s RHH outfield issues and you could put him in to face southpaws in any outfield position. I think he’s the number one on my wishlist from this group as eminently attainable and helpful.
Schmitt and Vargas are potential upgrades from Arias with the ability to hit lefties well. Not sure how interested the team will be in that profile.
Targets: Relievers:
The Blockbusters:
Josh Hader, LHP, Astros, Aroldis Chapman, LHP, Red Sox, Mason Montgomery, LHP, Pirates
Analysis: I DO NOT WANT AROLDIS CHAPMAN TO PITCH FOR MY FAVORITE BASEBALL TEAM AND WOULD BOYCOTT THE REST OF THE SEASON IF HE DID.
Hader and Montgomery would cost a lot but would be shutdown relievers to plug into the pen to help make up for Clase’s absence, something the team’s front office has not quite reckoned with yet. But, I don’t expect either to move and acknowledge that it would take a LOT for it to happen.
The Reasonably Attainable:
Brennan Bernardino, LHP, Rockies, 34 years old – 3.58 ERA, 3.47 FIP – under team control through 2029
Taylor Rogers, LHP, Twins, 35 years old – 6.16 ERA, 4.05 FIP – FA in 2027
Brent Suter, LHP, Angels, 36 years old – 4.13 ERA, 3.60 FIP – FA in 2027
Brooks Raley, LHP, Mets, 38 years old – 2.40 ERA, 3.43 FIP – FA in 2027
Sam Bachman, RHP, Angels, 26 years old – 3.35 ERA, 4.48 FIP – under team control through 2030
Caleb Ferguson, LHP, Reds, 27 years old – 1.84 ERA, 3.10 FIP – FA in 2027
Keaton Winn, RHP, Giants, 28 years old – 3.23 ERA, 3.23 FIP – under team control through 2030
Kevin Ginkel, RHP, Diamondbacks, 32 years old – 3.06 ERA, 3.50 FIP – FA in 2027
Evan Sisk, LHP, Pirates, 29 years old – 2.23 ERA, 3.03 FIP – under team control through 2032
Mark Leiter, Jr., RHP, Athletics, 35 years old – 4.85 ERA, 3.00 FIP – FA in 2027
Johnathan Loaisiga, RHP, Diamondbacks, 31 years old – 2.64 ERA, 3.07 FIP – FA in 2027
Analysis: Every team in baseball will be lighting up the phone lines for these players… and for players even further down on the effectiveness list. The Guardians’ offseason m.o. makes me believe they are more likely to scour the waiver wires or Triple-A clubs for a reliever with extension they believe they can maximize. Or just wait on Andrew Walters to get healthy again. But, I will hold out reasonable hope they could acquire a proven commodity listed above. Personally, I am still ticked off they didn’t sign Ferguson in the offseason, so they should acquire him to mollify my hurt feelings and relieve me of the chore of watching Tim Herrin walk 18 batters per 9. However, I think pulling off a deal for either Winn or Sisk would be the most exciting of the options listed above.
Summary: There is a lot to develop between now and August 3rd. It wouldn’t surprise me to see the Guardians acquire another waiver-wire-type and hope to turn them into Collin Holderman, trade Bo Naylor, maybe Steven Kwan and maybe Franco Aleman and call it a day. But, let’s hope for better. Let’s spend some prospect capital, go crazy and get Spencer Steer AND Keaton Winn. That would count for an A+ deadline given the current market.
What do you think? Whom would you like to see the Guardians target in the coming months?
Read the full article here