After a rough series in Tampa, Arizona comes home to hopefully get right again against the flailing Giants.
To say that Arizona had a rough go of things while in Tampa is putting things mildly. After a dreadful road trip, Arizona limps home with a record one game below .500 . They remain third in the NL West, but that doesn’t tell the story of their postseason aspirations, as even the Padres (the second place team) are now 10.5 games out of first as the Dodgers are finally putting the daylight between themselves and the division in the manner that most expected them to. No, their path to October baseball runs through the Wild Card, and they remain three games back in that race, trying to charge down the St. Louis Cardinals while also dealing with the four teams between them and the Red Birds from Missouri.
This series is going to force Mike Hazen and his advisors to make some difficult decisions. Continuing to kick the can down the road is not really much of an option anymore. The fallout from those upcoming decisions could go a very long way towards dictating Mike Hazen’s trade deadline strategy. If Arizona wants to have any realistic hope of achieving playoff baseball this year, they need to leave this series at or above .500. They also need to get there without losing any more players to injury.
Game 1
Tyler Mahle, RHP, 1-7, 5.49 ERA, 61 SO
vs.
Eduardo Rodriguez, LHP, 6-2, 2.27 ERA, 70 SO
Eduardo Rodriguez has been every bit the pitcher they thought they were signing back in 2024. Quite frankly, he has been Arizona’s best starting pitcher this season. Without his return to form, Arizona would likely already been sharing basement space with the Colorado Rockies in the standings. On the other side of things, Mahle is having himself a season to forget. Mahle’s win-loss record is not as indicative of his 12 starts as one might hope. In fact, it makes him look better than he has been. Sporting an ERA+ of 72, Mahle has never struggled this hard at any point in his professional career. The 31-year-old journeyman is coming to the point of pitching for his place on the 26-man roster. This would be an excellent game for the Diamondbacks to make a statement, having the lefty hitters pile on to put a dagger into the heart of the Giants from the outing. The sooner they can swat Mahle out of the game, the sooner thay can burn down the bullpen. Of course, that will mean Arizona will have to finally start having better performances hitting with RISP and taking walks, as Mahle still averages over five innings per outing, despite his struggles.
Game 2
Landen Roupp, RHP, 5-7, 4.07 ERA, 95 SO
vs.
TBD
Despite some very pedestrian, essentially league average, results, Roupp is averaging a bit over six innings per start. This ability to pitch later into games is another reason for Arizona to do their best to get into the bullpen early in the first game against Mahle. Roupp is 0-2 in his last five starts. In the two losses, he was blown up. In the three no decisions, he held the opposition to two runs or fewer. Roupp does a fair job of limiting the free passes, so Arizona is going to need to be patient. Attacking early plays into Roupp’s ability to go deep. Making him work increases the chances of Arizona finding a crack to exploit. It will also continue to put pressure on San Francisco’s beleaguered bullpen.
To counter, Arizona will be turning to the ageless wonder, TBD. In this case, TBP is looking more and more like Brandon Pfaadt. Jose Barera remains in the rotation already. Mitch Bratt and Kohl Drake are ineligible to return to the 26-man roster unless another injury move is made. Brandon Pfaadt did not pitch during the series in Tampa. How long Pfaadt will be allowed to go (assuming it is him) remains to be seen, as he was only throwing around 50 pitches for a while there in Reno. It could be that Arizona tosses a bullpen game, or potentially uses Pfaadt as an opener before going to the bullpen. There are a lot of moving pieces involved here and the speculation is running rampant while Arizona is (at least currently) playing this decision close to their chest.
Game 3
Trevor McDonald, RHP, 2-6, 4.94 ERA, 45 SO
vs.
Zac Gallen, RHP, 3-7, 6.15 ERA, 52 SO
Trevor McDonald, like the recently faced Drew Rasmussen, is stingy with the free pass. He isn’t much of a strikeout pitcher, but he simply doesn’t give away at-bats. When he is hitting his spots, it makes him 2023 Merrill Kelly dangerous. When he is missing his spots, he looks like present-day Merrill Kelly. There is a reason McDonald is sporting an ERA+ of 80. Arizona needs to ambush McDonald and put their foot down on the gas. If they can get to him early, Zac Gallen might be nearly irrelevant. On that note, the Diamondbacks will be sending struggling former ace Zac Gallen to the mound. In his last outing, he was mostly adequate against the Rays. He gave up a terrible first inning before settling in and cruising through the next five, albeit without the strikeouts. If that version of Gallen shows up, Arizona should be in a good place for this game. If the Zac Gallen of many other outings this season shows up, this game could become ugly for both teams.
Players to Watch
At this point, there really is no primary player to watch. The questions greatly outweigh the answers right now. The players struggling, if they continue to struggle, will continue to weigh the team down. On the other hand, if Zac Gallen builds off his last outing and if the team can salvage the second game of the series, then this team continues to keep the playoff conversations alive. The Giants are having a terrible season and find themselves in much the same place as Arizona, needing to start looking at alternatives for future seasons.
The one exception to this might be Max Kepler. How long will the recently reinstated Kepler be given to make an impact. Even at his height, he was essentially an older version of Pavin Smith, who is already creating issues for Arizona. Kepler only has five plate appearances so far, so it is obviously early days. But it is hard to imagine that his leash is especially long. Look for him to either make an impact soon or to be sent to the DFA rejects heap.
Conclusion
This series presents Arizona with a great chance for a palette cleanser. They get to leave the AL East leading Rays in the rearview. They get to sleep in their own beds. They get to face one of the worst teams in the game right now. If Arizona takes two of three, they exit this series back at .500. If they can manage to dig deep and find their mojo in game two, they have a very good chance of sweeping this series, putting them back at two games over even as they prepare to host the NL Central leading Milwaukee Brewers. It will be important for Arizona to come out of this series on a high note as their next three series are against the Brewers in Phoenix and then the Padres and Dodgers, both in California.
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