Yankees vs. Red Sox prediction: Odds, recent stats, trends, and best bets for June 26

The Yankees and Red Sox continue their weekend series tonight at Fenway Park after Boston took last night’s opener 6–3.

The bottom of the fifth inning saw the Sox score four times on just two hits was the difference. An error by third baseman Amed Rosario opened the floodgates. Caleb Durbin capped the scoring in the fifth with a two-run blast off of Cam Schlittler who took the loss for the Yankees despite not allowing an earned run on the night. The Cy Young favorite struck out nine over six innings. Connelly Early earned the win for the Sox allowing just two earned runs over six innings. Things got a bit sticky in the ninth when the Yankees loaded the bases in the ninth, but Aroldis Chapman closed the door for his 15^th save of the season.

Tonight’s matchup features New York’s Will Warren (7–2, 3.45 ERA) against Payton Tolle (3–5, 3.08 ERA) for Boston. Warren has logged 84 strikeouts over 78.1 innings with a 1.33 WHIP, while Tolle has been even more efficient with a 1.09 WHIP and 62 strikeouts in 64.1 innings. Both pitchers keep the baseball in the ballpark. Warren has allowed just eight home runs in his 15 starts. Tolle has served up six bombs in his 11 starts.

For New York, the hottest hitter in June has been Paul Goldschmidt. The veteran first baseman has hit safely in his last four games (7-16) and is hitting .353 for the month (30-85) including eight home runs. Ceddanne Rafaela has at least one hit in three straight games and is 11-43 over his last 10 games.

Lets dive into tonight’s matchup and find a sweat or two.

We’ve got all the info and analysis you need to know ahead of the game, including the latest info on the how to catch first pitch, odds, recent team performance, player stats, and of course, our predictions, picks & best bets for the game from our modeling tools and staff of experts.

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Game Details and How to Watch: Yankees vs. Red Sox

• Date: Friday, June 26, 2026

• Network/Streaming: MLB.TV, YES, NESN

Never miss a second of the action and stay up-to-date with all the latest team stats and player news. Check out our day-by-day MLB schedule page, along with detailed matchup pages that update live in-game with every out.

The Latest Odds: Yankees vs. Red Sox

The latest odds as of Friday courtesy of DraftKings:

• Moneyline: New York Yankees (-118), Boston Red Sox (-102)

• Spread: Yankees -1.5 (+138), Red Sox +1.5 (-167)

Starting Pitchers and their Stats: Yankees vs. Red Sox for June 26

• Yankees: Will Warren
  Season Totals: 78.1 IP, 7-2, 3.45 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 84K, 26 BB

• Red Sox: Payton Tolle
  Season Totals: 64.1 IP, 3-5, 3.08 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 62K, 18 BB

Who’s Hot? Who’s Not! Yankees vs. Red Sox

• Ben Rice went 0-5 last night and is 2-18 over his last 4 games

• Austin Wells has hit safely in 2 of his last 3 games but those are his only 2 hits in June (2-23)

• Willson Contreras was hitless in 4 ABs last night snapping his modest 3-game hitting streak

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Top Betting Trends & Insights: Yankees vs. Red Sox

• The Red Sox are 32-47 on the Run Line this season

• The Yankees are 39-41 on the Run Line this season

• The OVER has cashed 35 times in games involving the Red Sox this season (35-41-3)

• The OVER has cashed 36 times in games involving the Yankees this season (36-40-4)

Expert picks & predictions: Yankees vs. Red Sox

Rotoworld Bet Best Bet

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Our model calculates projections around each moneyline, spread and over/under bet for every game on the MLB calendar based on data points like past performance, player matchups, ballpark information and weather forecasts.

Once the model is finished running, we put its projection next to the latest betting lines for the game to arrive at a relative confidence level for each wager.

Here are the best bets our model is projecting for tonight’s game between the Red Sox and the Yankees:

• Moneyline: Rotoworld Bet is leaning towards a play on the Yankees on the Moneyline.

• Spread: Rotoworld Bet is staying away from a play on the Run Line.

• Total: Rotoworld Bet is leaning towards a play on the Game Total OVER 8.5.

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