The Red Sox did the near-unthinkable: they won 2 games in a row at home! A whole series! And it was against a team right in the playoff mix and just 1.0 game back for the lead in the AL West. At 35-36 the Rangers just left Boston under .500.
Also under .500 are the Toronto Blue Jays. The Jays are sitting at 34-38, which isn’t great. They were down to the final outs of a World Series and are now sitting on the outside looking in, hoping they can turn things around in the remaining 90 games. Boston is 3.0 games back of Toronto and Baltimore. Despite a better run differential and expected winning percentage than those teams, the Red Sox are in last place in the AL East. This is a very important series for the bottom three AL East teams. Unfortunately, the Jays, decimated by injuries, are bringing some good pitchers.
Dylan Cease was their big acquisition last winter and he’s pitched like an ace. An ERA under 3.00, 103 strikeouts in 68 innings. But the Red Sox got to him in April. Over 5.2 innings, Cease allowed 4 runs, all earned. His second highest runs allowed of the year after a 5-run outing against the Yankees in May. He spent a couple weeks on the IL before his last outing: 6.0 innings, 1 run against the Phillies. Hopefully the Sox offense is prepared.
Payton Tolle is coming off maybe his most disappointing start of the season. And it was still a 6-inning outing where he allowed just 4 runs against Tampa Bay. He faced the Jays on April 28 and allowed 3 runs over 4.2 innings. That was his lone start on 4 days rest. He’ll have 6 days this time. In a very small sample size discussion, the two teams he’s faced twice – Atlanta and Tampa – have had more success the second time. Considering the first time was Tolle on shorter rest, there probably isn’t much to read into even that limited data point.
Max Scherzer is probably not long for MLB at this point. He started the season with 6.0 innings against the Rockies and tossed 6.0 against the Diamondbacks on April 18 but around those starts has tossed 10 total innings across 4 starts with a lengthy IL stint that cost him all of May. He hasn’t faced Boston this year. In 2025 he made one start in September against the Sox going 5.0 innings while allowing 4 runs in an eventual 7-1 loss. He’ll face Jake Bennett, who is at the other end of his career: the beginning. In three major league starts he’s gone 5.0 innings twice and 5.1 once. With Brayan Bello in the minors, Bennett has time to prove himself. And even 4 runs is better than some of the Bello starts (not his solid relief outings).
Trey Yesavage burst onto the scene in September 2025 and pitched in the World Series. Expectations were sky high. Injuries kept him out for most of April, but he’s been pretty good until recently. In his season debut he shut down the Sox for 5.1 innings, striking out 3, walking none, and not allowing a run. His most recent two starts haven’t gone well: 11 runs in 10.2 innings against the Orioles and Yankees with 8 of each Ks and BBs. Sonny Gray was excellent against the Texas Rangers, holding the club to a single run in 6.0 innings. He struck out 7, which has become more of a weapon again since his return from the IL. Gray was on the IL during the first series against the Blue Jays so he hasn’t faced them this season.
The Jays have a franchise record of 3889-3894 so a winning season for them could flip them into positive over their history.
Vlad Jr. has just 3 homers on the season.
Ernie Clement leads the league with 20 doubles.
New third baseman Kazuma Okamoto has slugged 15 homers.
George Springer had a bounceback 2025 but is hitting just .208/.303/.354 on the season.
Probable Pitching Matchups
Tuesday, June 16: Dylan Cease (2.91 ERA / 2.36 FIP) vs. Payton Tolle (2.70 ERA / 2.71 FIP)
Wednesday, June 17: Max Scherzer (10.23 ERA / 8.79 FIP) vs. Jake Bennett (5.28 ERA / 3.89 FIP)
Thursday, June 18: Trey Yesavage (3.78 ERA / 3.59 FIP) vs. Sonny Gray (3.03 ERA / — FIP)
When/Where to Watch
Tuesday, June 16: 6:45 PM ET on NESN
Wednesday, June 17: 6:45 PM ET on NESN
Thursday, June 18: 1:35 PM ET on NESN
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