Through four games, the 2026 NBA Finals have been even in just about every way.
The Knicks may lead the series three games to one, but as many pundits and salty NBA fans will tell you, all of these games could’ve gone the opposite way with a few different possessions or calls going differently. Unfortunately for them, you don’t get extra points for almost winning, just ask Kenny Atkinson.
Both teams have made massive runs; they’ve had massive quarters. Even in the Spurs’ case, they’ve had a dominant half of basketball. But it’s all added up to the two teams being close enough that all four games have been decided at the death.
But, while much of the discourse surrounding Game 4 has been focused on the Spurs’ unbelievable 29-point choke, not enough has been about the Knicks playing perhaps the best half of basketball, context included, in franchise history. For some reason, people believe that winning the first quarter matters more than any other. Odd.
So what had to happen for the Knicks to suddenly flip the script and outscore the Spurs 58-30 in the final 24 minutes?
The first thing we have to acknowledge is shooting luck. After the greatest shooting half in NBA Finals history by a Spurs team that has just two above-average three-point shooters in their rotation, they cooled off significantly after halftime, going just 3-for-17. A lot of these looks weren’t totally different than the ones they chucked up in the first half in a persistent heat check, but the attention to detail was also better by the Knicks.
The Spurs went 9-for-13 on wide-open threes and 5-for-12 on open threes in that first half. In the second half, it dropped off to 3-for-10 and 0-for-7. While the drop off from 14-for-25 to 3-for-17 is truly immense, it still averages out at 40.5%, which is well above the postseason average for the Spurs.
So while their shooting drop-off in the second half was a big catalyst behind the comeback, think of it as more of a regression to the mean by a team that doesn’t have the shotmaking to do it for a full 48.
And this is where youthful arrogance sinks in. The heat check bled into the third quarter, where the Spurs repeatedly chucked up shots early in the shot clock, expecting them to go in. When you lead by such a large margin in the second half, you’re fighting the clock as much as the opponent. Refusing to use it on their side enabled the Knicks to get back into it:
Despite employing a 7’5” alien, the Spurs became the first team in this postseason to go an entire quarter without scoring in the paint in that third quarter, going 0-for-5 in the restricted area. Yes, none of the teams that got wiped off the face of the earth by the Thunder or Knicks in the early rounds even reached this futility.
But that’s enough about the Spurs shooting themselves in the foot. What did the Knicks do to chip away and seize the game at the very end?
They generated better looks on offense, for one. The Knicks had just nine open/wide-open three-point attempts in the first half, making four of them.
In the second half? They went 10-for-18. They never had a problem making their open threes, they just weren’t able to get to that easy offense in the first half.
A large part of that was being able to space the floor with Karl-Anthony Towns being freed from Zach Zarba’s foul trouble prison cell. After playing just nine minutes in a first half that featured brief cameos by Ariel Hukporti and Jeremy Sochan, Towns played 17 minutes in the second half. As such, he was able to finish a game-high +17 in 26 minutes.
While he himself didn’t do too much, he continued a trend that has existed all throughout this series. When he shares the floor with Victor Wembanyama, the Knicks steadily outplay them. When he’s forced to sit while Wemby’s out there, the Spurs dominate.
Wemby + KAT on: Knicks +30 (116:27)
Wemby on, KAT off: Spurs +41 (44:19)
Wemby off: Knicks +19 (31:14)
Plus/minus per minute:
Wemby + KAT on: Knicks +0.26
Wemby on, KAT off: Spurs +0.925
Wemby off: Knicks +0.61
It also doesn’t help ol’ Vic that the Knicks were taking advantage of his wind slowly catching up to him. He’s played a staggering 203 minutes over his last five games, the most by a country mile that he ever has. He’s exceeded his career high in total minutes by over 450 minutes, with, in a total best-case scenario for him, three games to go. That’s 10 additional full games of basketball.
It’s not surprising, then, when the Knicks hunted him on the perimeter in multiple types of action in the second half.
The big worry I had watching the first half was allowing the Spurs to coast to a victory and allow their stars to rest, not accruing the extra mileage that has slowly worn them down as games progressed. Fortunately, the Knicks never fully let go of the rope in this tug-of-war battle, dragging their tired bodies over the line for a win.
There were also some bold moves made by Mike Brown with his rotations. Jordan Clarkson didn’t have it. Deuce McBride continued not to have it. Landry Shamet struggled for the second straight game. Needing someone to plug in during the fourth quarter, he elected to play Jose Alvarado with Brunson for the first time in several weeks. It worked like a charm.
The Knicks’ best offense has been when they use off-ball movement, spacing, and real ball movement to put the Spurs into the blender. This disrupts their strategy of playing Wemby as a free safety in the paint and allows them to create quality looks on possession after possession.
What you saw in the second half wasn’t just a young team fundamentally failing in terms of execution for an entire half, but it was a perfect 24 minutes for the team that had to climb out of an impossible deficit.
The inexperience showed one more time in a big way on the final possessions. The Spurs had no idea how to defend the Knicks’ final possession, and you could see it happening in real time.
Through four games, the Spurs have not been the better team, because this kind of stuff is what goes into what decides which team is better or not. Just because one team has the flashier stars, the better personalities, the generational talents gifted to them by Adam Silver and the lottery gods, doesn’t mean they should be ordained without having to play the games.
With Game 5 coming later today, David will have a chance to take Goliath off life support.
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