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Can the San Antonio Spurs come back from the biggest collapse in NBA postseason history? Probably not, but the New York Knicks still need to go win a fourth game to win the NBA Finals.
My Knicks vs. Spurs props and these NBA picks expect San Antonio to at least put up a fight at home in Game 5 on Saturday, June 13.
Best Knicks vs Spurs props for Game 5
|
Player |
Pick |
|
|---|---|---|
|
Victor Wembanyama |
Over 27.5 points |
-120 |
|
Karl-Anthony Towns |
Over 11.5 rebounds |
+110 |
|
Dylan Harper |
Over 3.5 assists |
+125 |
Game 5 Prop #1: Victor Wembanyama Over 27.5 points
Victor Wembanyama played all 12 minutes of Wednesday’s fourth quarter, yet he scored only five points, going 2-of-9 from the field and not taking a 3-pointer. Consider that to be the latest evidence of the San Antonio Spurs’ superstar’s exhaustion.
This is his first playoff run. He has never played into late April before, let alone mid-June. And the intensity of these games adds up. Fatigue is understandable even if also becoming a liability.
But with an added day off, Wembanyama should be ready to charge forward in Game 5, and he has always preferred shooting at home. Some consideration could be put into betting the Over on his 3-pointers prop, set at 1.5 but juiced to -200.
An extra day off before Game 3 helped Wembanyama to an 11-of-21 showing for 32 points, despite shooting only four 3-pointers. Expect a 3-of-7 or 3-of-8 showing from long range as Wembanyama again reaches 30 points in Game 5.
Game 5 Prop #2: Karl-Anthony Towns Over 11.5 rebounds
The Spurs could not have started Game 4 in a better way than notching two fouls on Karl-Anthony Towns within the first minute of the game. Failing to find a win when granted that break is nearly as damning as blowing a 29-point lead was.
Once Towns was back on the court in full, he returned to his effectiveness. He finished with 10 rebounds despite playing less than 26 minutes. He snagged seven boards once free of his shackles in the second half.
He is effectively the New York Knicks’ only quality big man in this series; obviously that drastically understates Towns’s role. Every Mitchell Robinson minute risks Hack-A-Mitch, but when facing Wembanyama, New York needs size.
Expect at least 35 minutes from Towns in Game 5, if not 40.
This prop is set at the right number, but the plus-money is foolish. Towns cleared this in the first two games of this series, and he fell short in Game 4 only because of the opening minute’s whistles.
Game 5 Prop #3: Dylan Harper Over 3.5 assists
Obviously and memorably De’Aaron Fox had an ugly closing few minutes in Game 4 that likely cost the Spurs a win. But San Antonio head coach Mitch Johnson should already have been playing Fox fewer minutes and turning to Dylan Harper more often.
Harper is clearly the Spurs’ best guard in this series, outplaying both Fox and Stephon Castle. He has notched at least three assists in each of the last three games, playing 32 minutes in each and with a usage rate of at least 22.1% in them after playing only 28 minutes in Game 1 with a usage rate of 19.0%.
San Antonio’s best chance at shocking everyone in these Finals includes elevating Harper to the No. 2 role behind Wembanyama. The headlines will say that comes at Fox’s expense, but it was an obvious need long before Fox missed a layup and failed to box out OG Anunoby.
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