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Victor Wembanyama starred in Game 3, to the chagrin of New York Knicks fans and to the joy of folks who want to see a long series.
If the San Antonio Spurs are going to even the NBA Finals, they likely need more of the same from Wemby.
These Victor Wembanyama odds and NBA picks do not so much doubt Wembanyama’s offense as they expect his defense to be more necessary in Game 4 on Wednesday, June 10.
Victor Wembanyama prop pick for Game 4
Victor Wembanyama best bet: Under 27.5 points (-115 at bet365)
This is not meant as a knock on Victor Wembanyama’s offense. If anything, it is a knock on Karl-Anthony Towns’s offense in Game 3.
Towns was not aggressive in the first New York Knicks’ loss since April. He did not take a 3-pointer in the first three quarters, and removing that threat allowed Wembanyama to expend less energy defensively. No wonder he played his most efficient game of the NBA Finals thus far.
The Knicks coaching staff has undoubtedly pointed out to Towns the compound effect that comes with his offensive reluctance. If they want to put the San Antonio Spurs on the brink, then KAT needs to make Wembanyama stress on defense.
Doing so should cut into Wemby’s offensive output, a reward almost as helpful as every point Towns scores.
Victor Wembanyama same-game parlay
While Wembanyama went 2-for-4 from long range in Game 3 to help spur his 32 points, the most notable number should be that he attempted only four 3-pointers. He has always been more hesitant to shoot from deep when on the road.
He took just five 3-pointers per road game this season, compared to 5.9 per home game.
And that gap has furthered this postseason, Wembanyama now taking 6.4 threes per home game (excluding Game 2 of the first round, when a concussion sidelined him after just 12 minutes) compared to 4.25 per road game (excluding Game 4 of the second round, when an ejection sidelined him after just 12 minutes).
That reluctance should cost Wemby both from deep and in scoring overall.
And it should hold true even though Wembanyama should handle the ball even more. Stephon Castle and De’Aaron Fox have been a bit too loose with the ball in this series, while the Spurs’ first win came in no small part because Wemby turned over the ball only once in nearly 39 minutes. That helped create six assists.
Putting the ball into Wembanyama’s hands more will help San Antonio in multiple ways, partly simply by protecting the ball.
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