Compared to Atlanta, the Phillies are on the Outside Looking…Outside?

Hello, and welcome to the MLB Team Dating Game! Today we’ve got two highly eligible MLBachelors, two clubs looking for their Special Somefan. Here’s how it works: we’ll give you some information about the teams, and you’ll pick the club you want to go on a date with. Only after you choose do you find out the name of your new MLBeau! A lovely steak dinner awaits you and your chosen club— tube steaks, that is! Without further ado:

Team A lives in the National League East. A member of the Senior Circuit since the 1800s, (a silver fox, you might say), Team A likes to wear red and blue, can’t stand New York, and likes to live dangerously, ranking in the top five for chase rate. Team A loves a pitch inside the zone, but doesn’t see so many, ranking bottom five in Zone %.

I think I can hear the bells of love ringing! But be patient, because Team B is no slouch.

Team B lives in the National League East. A member of the Senior Circuit since the 1800s, (a silver fox, you might say), Team B likes to wear red and blue, can’t stand New York, and likes to live dangerously, ranking in the top 5 for chase rate. Team B loves a pitch inside the zone, but doesn’t see so many, ranking bottom five in Zone %.

Can’t decide? Well, that’s alright. Best to look before you leap. Let’s have a little more information about our clubs.

Team A is red hot at the plate this year, ranking top three in batting average, OPS, and wRC+. Their 335 runs scored are second league-wide, and only one club can boast more homers.

Team B is in a bit of a down period, ranking bottom three in batting average, OPS, and bottom five in wRC+. Their 250 runs scored are…

You’ve chosen already? Team A? Don’t be too hasty! There’s lots to be said about Team B. Why, we haven’t even started talking about their pitching yet. They’re honest, nobody’s been caught stealing less… Well, they’ve got a mascot with a great sense of humor…

No? Team A’s the choice then? Enjoy your date! That’s all the time we have for the MLB Team Dating Game! May love bloom for you and your club!

By this point, you’ve probably figured out who the two teams are. Team A is the Atlanta Braves, pummeling opposing pitchers on their way to an elite offense and a record to match. And Team B is the Phillies, struggling at the plate, though keeping their head above water in the standings.

The fact that the Braves have been great on offense and the Phillies have been less so will not surprise you. It didn’t surprise me either. But I was a bit surprised to see that the two rivals have remarkably similar plate discipline, taken at the team level (all data prior to Saturday’s games, using Statcast/ABS definitions)

The Braves are a little more likely to swing overall than the Phils, particularly on pitches in the zone. It’s the chasing that I want to take a deeper look at. Both teams are among the most inclined to swing at pitches outside the zone: the Braves are third-most likely, the Phillies fifth. Despite their tendencies to chase, the Braves have been elite on offense, and the Phillies have been less so. Which raises a question, or perhaps two: how have the Braves been so good on offense while swinging at so many outside pitches, and why has the Phillies’ equally chase-happy approach been less successful?

Unsurprisingly given their willingness to chase, both teams are among the most likely to get pitches outside. The Phillies see 46.8% of pitches outside the cozy comfort of the zone, and the Braves see 46.4%. That’s 27th and 28th, respectively. And despite this equality, the Braves are still doing much more than the Phillies at the plate. Much of that is the result of the Braves being better on the pitches that they do get in the zone. But it’s worth taking a look at how the two teams perform on pitches outside of it, too.

Not all pitches outside the zone are equal. There’s a big difference between swinging at a pitch 0.2 inches outside, and swinging at one that’s halfway to Camden. The area outside the strike zone can be broken down into three zones: the Shadow Zone (barely outside), the Chase Zone (pretty far outside), and the Waste Zone (please don’t swing, thank you).

The Braves are a little more likely than the Phillies to swing at the shadow zone pitches, the least damaging sort of chase. But it’s a small difference, and they’re also a little more likely than the Phillies to swing at the waste pitches. The difference in their offensive performance isn’t likely to lie here.

What about contact rate? The Braves are a little more likely to make contact on pitches outside the zone, doing so 62.9% (fourth overall), whereas the Phillies do so on 59.2% (13th). That likely explains part of the discrepancy in offensive performance; you can’t do damage on a pitch unless you make contact.

Let’s take a look at the overall offensive numbers:

The Braves are not only more likely to make contact on pitches outside the zone than the Phillies, they’re also a lot more likely to do damage on those pitches. Overall, the Braves have the fifth-highest wOBA on pitches outside the zone, and the Phillies have the 25th.

But how are they doing so much more damage? They’re not hitting pitches outside the zone any harder than the Phillies are. Both teams have an identical 24% hard hit rate on pitches outside the zone. Luck and sample size probably have something to do with it, but there may be something else here.

The Braves are slightly more likely to hit flies on pitches outside the zone, and slightly less likely to hit grounders and pop-ups; that likely explains some of it.

The difference in type of contact matters too:

The Braves are more likely to make solid contact on pitches outside the zone than the Phillies, and about twice as likely to barrel those pitches. That helps.

The Phillies and the Braves are about as likely to chase as each other, and they’re about as likely to get pitches to chase as each other. But they’re not equal in how they perform on those pitches. To say that it’s not the pitches you swing at, but how you swing at them, would be flatly false; it really matters what pitches you’re swinging at. Both the Braves and Phillies hurt themselves when they swing outside the zone. But the Braves are hurting themselves less with those swings— and that can explain at part of the difference between the surging Atlanta offense and that of the Phillies.