Knicks vs. Spurs predictions: Who wins the 2026 NBA Finals? Here are our championship picks

Knicks vs. Spurs. 2026 NBA Finals. It’s finally here, and it could be epic.

New York, led by 6-foot-2 star guard Jalen Brunson, is hoping to hang its first championship banner since 1973, while San Antonio, led by 7-4 generational superstar Victor Wembanyama, is seeking to start the NBA’s next dynasty.

Who has the most at stake in the Finals? Who are the biggest X-factors? And who will ultimately win it all? Our writers weigh in on the must-see matchup.

Knicks or Spurs: More impressive run to the Finals?

Kelly Iko: Spurs. The Knicks have throttled their unfortunate Eastern Conference foes en route to June, but I’m not sure there are any analytics that can quantify the mental fortitude, attention to detail and sheer will to knock off the defending champs, beating them twice at home and withstanding a machine that has left 29 other teams tucked in the fetal position. That the Spurs are this young and have accelerated their timeline this quickly is more impressive.

Dan Devine: Spurs. As hard as it is to go against the team that literally put up the highest point differential of any 11-game stretch in NBA history to get here, I’ll go with San Antonio. As a legendary poet once said, to be the man, you’ve got to beat the man, and the Spurs went into Oklahoma City and won twice — in Game 1 and Game 7 — to knock off the Thunder and punctuate their season-long dominance over the defending NBA champions. I’m not sure it gets more impressive than that.

Tom Haberstroh: Knicks. The greatest 11-game run in NBA history I think qualifies as prettay …prettay … prettay good. The Spurs beating the defending champs is mighty impressive, but the Thunder were without Jalen Williams and Ajay Mitchell for much of that series. The way the Knicks have completely done a 180 mid-playoffs is nothing short of magical.

Ben Rohrbach: Spurs. As impressive as New York’s run through the Eastern Conference finals was — 11 straight wins and all — it came against the sixth-seeded Atlanta Hawks, seventh-seeded Philadelphia 76ers and fourth-seeded Cleveland Cavaliers. Meanwhile, San Antonio marched through Anthony Edwards’ Minnesota Timberwolves and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s defending champion Thunder to get here. The Knicks have yet to face a team as good as either opponent.

Steve Jones: Knicks. The Spurs deserve a ton of credit for coming from down 3-2 against the defending champs and winning Game 7 in OKC’s building. They also got last year’s other Western Conference finalist, Minnesota, out of there. That being said, the Knicks are one of five teams that have won 11 straight games in a single postseason. They are the only team in NBA history with three series-clinching wins by 30 or more points. And they have solved problems quickly and delivered more as series have wore on — that’s the most impressive part.

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Who has the most at stake in these Finals?

Rohrbach: Victor Wembanyama. The list of superstars to lead his team to a championship at the age of 22 includes only Bill Russell and Tim Duncan. The list of players to lead a team to a title in his first three seasons is also a short one, including Kareem Abdul-Jabbar. In other words, mostly GOATs will have done what Wembanyama could do with a championship at such a young age. He will be well ahead of schedule on Michael Jordan and LeBron James, who did not win their first titles until they were 28 and 27 years old, respectively. If Wemby were to lose, however, he will forever have something on his résumé that Jordan never did — a Finals loss. These are the nits we may have to pick when it is all said and done with Wemby. That we have arrived at this place so soon into his career is a testament to Wembanyama’s ceaseless ceiling.

Devine: Jalen Brunson. I don’t feel like this series is necessarily a referendum on any individual player — the kind of binary “hero or fraud???” legacy crucible that makes or breaks the way we talk about them forever. But the list of small point guards to be the best player on a championship team is even smaller than those point guards. If he can find a way to lead the Knicks to their first title in 53 years, being the best performer on the floor in the biggest moment the franchise has seen in decades, he goes from “multi-time All-Star/All-NBA performer” to “likely Hall of Famer.” That’s a pretty big leap; all Brunson’s got to do to make it is hurdle the biggest obstacle in the sport.

Haberstroh: Jalen Brunson. He’s on his way to becoming the greatest Knick of all time if things break right. But I gotta say, for an NBA Finals that feels absolutely massive, it doesn’t carry the same downside risk as we’ve seen in the past. Brunson turns 30 this summer, so he qualifies as the elder statesmen in this series of guppies.

Jones: The Knicks, as a unit. I’m not sure there is one individual whose “legacy is on the line” as we’ve seen in Finals past. But the Knicks are making their first trip to the Finals in 27 years, and a championship would be the team’s first since 1973. There are no guarantees in this league (eight different champions in the past eight years), but the Spurs do have an element of youth on their side. And with the fact that Wembanyama can (and will) get even better, you could see the Spurs making it back here. If I had to pick a person with the most to gain it’s Wembanyama (would be a generational run) or Karl-Anthony Towns (would stamp his career and end a whole lot of chatter).

Iko: Is it fair to say Mike Brown? The driving force behind Brown’s hire was a need to push this group a bit farther than Tom Thibodeau could, diversify the Knicks’ offensive profile and enhance their depth. So far, he’s done all three, while also boasting championship experience. But because of the pressure that comes with playing or coaching in New York — in accordance with ownership’s expectations — Brown stumbling at the finish line would be an unfortunate end to a brilliant season, once again giving way to offseason questions.

Knicks-Spurs Finals preview: Series keys, schedule and more

Name an X-factor in this series

Jones: Josh Hart. The Knicks will need his defense and ability to defend multiple positions because the Spurs guards will attack. They will also need him to handle the moments when the Spurs deploy Victor Wembanyama to guard him. The shot making (or taking) may draw the attention, but keep an eye on what Hart does off-ball. His ability to keep things flowing, working to get to dribble handoffs or setting off-ball screens could get the Knicks some openings. I will note a (healthier) De’Aaron Fox could flip all the math we are calculating in the build-up.

Devine: Mitchell Robinson’s broken and surgically repaired right pinky. If he’s more or less good to go, able to grab offensive rebounds, finish above the rim and be an active shot-blocker/disruptor, he could be a massive weapon for Mike Brown to deploy against Wembanyama. If he’s limited, unavailable or ineffective, New York’s chances of stifling the Spurs drop significantly.

Iko: Julian Champagnie’s and Devin Vassell’s joint spacing. Similar to the Western Conference finals, I expect the Knicks to look to force turnovers in the middle of the floor, ceding open 3s and making a Spurs team yet to get a good shooting performance from both Champagnie and Vassell to punish them. Most of the attention will be focused on Wembanyama, anyway, and Stephon Castle, Dylan Harper and De’Aaron Fox’s drive-and-kick ability remains top-notch. San Antonio just needs to continue to knock down shots.

Haberstroh: Julian Champagnie. He had three points in the NBA Cup loss and 36 points in the Spurs win a couple weeks later. That’s what we call an X-factor. Karl-Anthony Towns may be “hid” on Champagnie so the Knicks center doesn’t get in foul trouble. Whoever can make hay with that matchup should swing the series.

Rohrbach: Dylan Harper. Since Magic Johnson’s 42-15-7 in Game 6 of the 1980 NBA Finals — the pinnacle moment in NBA playoff history for rookies — only Sam Cassell in 1994 and Manu Ginobili in 2003 have played more than 400 postseason minutes for a champion in his freshman season. And Harper doesn’t just play. He’s been an integral part of what the Spurs do and will be as both a defender against Brunson and as a scorer off the bench. Harper has a chance to be a special talent, and what better place to launch a Hall of Fame career than the NBA Finals.

After Game 1, everyone’s going to be talking about _______

Devine: The end of the Knicks’ postseason winning streak, and whether anyone anywhere has any answers for Wembanyama.

Rohrbach: The Knicks, for better or worse. The NBA’s biggest media market hasn’t won a title since 1973, hasn’t reached a Finals since 1999, and that’s the biggest story going in all of sports — with the acknowledgement that a potential Wembanyama coronation is an awfully big story. If the Knicks are in a 1-0 hole, trying to figure out the impossible puzzle that is Wembanyama, or if they’re leading 1-0 — three wins from glory — either way the Knicks will lead the conversation.

Jones: Whatever Victor Wembanyama did in his Finals debut. At each step of this run he’s showcased a new layer to his game. The defense continues to speak for itself, but how will he look to put his stamp on this series from the beginning? What will the offensive aggression look like on the grandest stage of them all? His passion and energy in front of that world will likely be the discussion.

Iko: Stephon Castle’s matchup with Jalen Brunson, and whether the guard who finished a few votes shy of an All-Defensive team was able to successfully contain him like he did Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.

Haberstroh: How exhausted Wembanyama was. Coming off a grueling seven-game marathon, Wembanyama’s discipline and stamina will be tested. I’m reminded of the Game 1 block party against Rudy Gobert and how the Spurs Frenchman burned out quickly in the loss to Minnesota. The Knicks will do everything in their power to try to wear him down and it might just work.

What’s your Finals prediction, and who’s the Finals MVP?

Haberstroh: Spurs in 5. Wemby, Finals MVP. I’ve backed them all season long, and there’s no turning back now. The piranhas of the Spurs backcourt should give Brunson more fits than he’s had all postseason, and that’ll free up Wembanyama to wreak havoc in the paint. Wemby stands to be the youngest Finals MVP since Magic in 1980.

Iko: Spurs in 6. Wemby, Finals MVP. I was in the locker room following a memorable Game 7 win on the road, and those guys are extremely confident going up against this Knicks team. As Mitch Johnson said, sometimes the lack of experience gets overblown and the inverse is leaned on way too heavily. San Antonio is young, hungry, talented and capable of more. Should be a fantastic series.

Devine: Knicks in 6. Jalen Brunson, Finals MVP. I finished my big Finals preview with that prediction, and I’ll stick with that here. (Consistency. Ethics.) After being named the Most Valuable Player of the NBA Cup and Eastern Conference finals, Brunson adds a third trophy to his case, and he never has to pay for anything in New York again. I didn’t say “never pay for a drink again.” I said never pay for anything.

Jones: Knicks in 6. Jalen Brunson, Finals MVP. There is a chance the Spurs (once again) prove me wrong by containing Brunson and taking the Knicks’ movement off the table with Wembanyama at the center of it. But it feels like the Knicks have the defensive personnel to slow the Spurs’ guards down. They have won games in different ways, had Brunson and KAT hold up on both ends and are fully bought in. If they are going to get it done, it will be in the Garden.

Rohrbach: Spurs in 7. Victor Wembanyama, Finals MVP. A new era is upon us.