OKLAHOMA CITY — This series had to go seven.
The Western Conference Finals have felt like a heavyweight fight, with two powerhouses exchanging blows that would have ended just about every other team. All the games (okay, most of them) haven’t gone down to the wire, but they have been entertaining and intense. The level of play has been incredibly high.
“Who doesn’t want to play in a Game 7?” San Antonio’s Stephon Castle asked.
Which team will be left standing when the final bell rings? Here are a handful of keys to Game 7, which you can watch starting at 8 p.m. ET on NBC, or stream on Peacock.
Wembanyama vs. Gilgeous-Alexander
It feels a little reductive, a little simplistic to say, “the team whose star plays better wins.” Except that’s how the first six games of this series have gone — whichever of Victor Wembanyama or Shai Gilgeous-Alexander scored the most in a game, their team won (both scored 26 in Game 3, an OKC win).
There was Victor Wembanyama’s epic Game 1 masterpiece, with 41 points and 24 rebounds. Or his 33 points in a dominant Game 4. Or how he stepped up when his team needed him most in Game 6 and scored 22 points on 9-of-16 shooting in the first half to help the Spurs pull away (he finished with 28 points in 28 minutes). The Spurs went “back to basics” in Game 6 and used him more in a pick-and-pop role early, and when he hit those 3-pointers early, he got himself and the team going, then he went into the paint and was a force.
While we haven’t seen the most efficient Shai Gilgeous-Alexander this series — he’s shooting just 37.9% — he dropped 30 points in Game 2 and 32 points in Game 5, both Oklahoma City wins.
“A lot of the shots that I’m shooting, I’ve shot plenty of times before and they feel good. They’re just not going in,” Gilgeous-Alexander said of his shooting this series. “But it’s too late to abandon my work and abandon my game and who I am. This late in the season, I got to trust it and live or die by it.”
SGA carved up the Spurs with his passing and playmaking early in the series, when San Antonio doubled him and tried to force the ball out of his hands. However, since the Spurs switched to a more straightforward defense (led by Castle) with help coming when he drives into a dangerous position, SGA has really struggled.
Maybe it is as simple as which superstar has the better night.
Oklahoma City’s starting five
With Jalen Williams (left hamstring) and Ajay Mitchell (calf) missing time — and they are both out for Game 7 — Mark Daigneault has had to adjust his rotations.
His starting five the last couple of games has been Gilgeous-Aleander, Jared McCain, Lu Dort, Chet Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein — and they have not been good together. There’s a reason the Spurs race out to an early-game lead seemingly every game, forcing OKC to dig out of a hole.
The biggest issue has been Dort and his lack of shooting — he is shooting 35.5% overall and 18.2% from 3, giving the Spurs an easy person to help off of and ignore. Daigneault may want to consider starting — or subbing in very early — Cason Wallace for Dort.
Oklahoma City also needs a more aggressive night from Chet Holmgren. This has been a rough series for him, but when he is a scoring threat, like Game 5, the Thunder become that much more dangerous. He has to be that guy in Game 7.
Can Thunder force turnovers then run?
As mentioned above, the Spurs’ half-court defense has frustrated the Thunder and Gilgeous-Alexander.
What has fueled the Thunder this season has been forcing turnovers with their aggressive defense, then turning those into easy transition buckets the other way. If the Thunder wins this series, they have scored 20, 20 and 27 points off Spurs turnovers; in the last two losses, it was 11 and 13 (Game 1, with its double overtime, was kind of its own thing).
If OKC can get some easy transition buckets, that’s huge for them in Game 7.
3s and bench stars
Two other quick keys in this game. One, the Thunder have been streaky from 3-point range this series, they need to be on in Game 7 or it’s a big mountain to climb.
Second, which super-sub has the better game, Dylan Harper or Alex Caruso? Both have been brilliant this series, if one steps up big in Game 7 it’s a huge advantage for their team. Or, maybe it’s another sub — Game 7s have a way of bringing unexpected heroes to the front of the line.
Home court, experience
Will being at home and having played in big Game 7s before — including Game 7 of the NBA Finals a year ago on this very court — be the difference on Saturday?
Historically, experience and home court matter (stats via NBC’s research team):
• Home teams have a 26-12 (.684) record in conference finals Game 7s (this excludes the bubble).
• Oklahoma City won two Game 7s at home on its way to last year’s title (Denver and Indiana).
• Oklahoma City is 4-1 in Game 7s (since relocating to OKC, we’re not counting the Seattle years or the loss in the bubble). All four of those wins are at home.
• The home team has won three in a row in this series.
• If San Antonio wins Game 7, it would become the third road team to win a Game 7 in these playoffs (Cavaliers over Pistons, 76ers over Celtics), which would be a record for a single postseason.
• The last time the teams with the two best records in the league met in a Game 7 was 2002, when the 58-win Lakers led by Shaq and Kobe beat the 61-win Kings.
All that said, the Thunder aren’t banking on being at home mattering.
“Anything can happen in a Game 7,” Gilgeous-Alexander said. “It’s win or go home. It being in your building is nice, but it doesn’t really mean anything. You have to go out there and be the better basketball team or else your season’s done and that’s what it comes down to.”
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