A few days ago, I put out a call for Golden State Warriors mailbag questions. We didn’t get a ton this time around, but what we lacked in quantity we made up for in quality, with some excellent questions.
ScottWarrior
I am sure the Warriors are working out some prospects projected in the first round. Why are we not seeing any names? Are we going to see any at all? I understand this is part of the strategy to keep their big board secret. But players come to visit and journalists could find out who the visitors are. How come no information leaks to the media?
The boring answer is that it’s pretty rare for first-round talents to have these types of workouts. HoopsHype has been doing a fantastic job tracking all the reported workouts across the league, and a quick glance at their list reveals that only a small handful of first-rounders have had individual workouts, while the vast majority of workouts are for potential second-round picks and undrafted players.
Why is that? Because these sorts of workouts are fairly meaningless, and almost entirely meaningless for top prospects. Individual pre-draft workouts are, in essence, going through the movements of a very basic workout, with a softball job interview attached. That can still have value, but the value is primarily for deciding who to target for Summer League rosters and camp invites, and who could be a quality two-way addition. It also goes both ways: it’s an opportunity for those players to decide what team to sign with if they go undrafted.
The Warriors probably have 10-15 names they’re considering with the No. 11 pick. At this point, the Warriors have presumably seen all of them play in person, have watched virtually all of their college games, have talked with their college coaches, have had conversations with them, and have seen them at the combine. Nothing is going to change with 45 minutes of cone drills and a 10-minute interview, and so neither side is particularly interested (most projected lottery picks flatly refuse individual workouts).
That’s not to say that the Warriors haven’t gotten to know all of their potential draftees well (there’s a joke to be made somewhere in here about having dinner with them all and seeing what foreign languages they speak). But there are avenues to do that beyond the reported workouts. And while a mild-mannered workout isn’t going to impact how the Warriors feel about the 10-15 players they’ve done extreme due diligence on for their first-round pick, it can be a difference maker for the 200-300 players they’re considering for their second-round pick, two-way contracts, and Summer League roster, all of whom have had significantly less time making an impact on the organization than the first-rounders have.
bill645
I haven’t seen much commentary yet on the newly enacted draft lottery rules for next year. It sounds like the W’s would’ve had a better chance at a top four pick. Not sure the new rules will do much to reduce tanking, although it may prevent super-tanking (i.e., racing to the very bottom of the overall league standings).
Indeed, as our own Sean Keane noted in his article about the new rules, the Warriors would have had a 5.4% chance at the top pick under the new format, as opposed to the 2.0% chance they actually had. I think you hit the nail on the head: it’s going to reduce super-tanking, which is really the issue. No one cares about teams that aren’t good and aren’t making maximum effort to change that in the short term; it’s the teams that are blatantly trying to lose games that are ruining the fan experience (looking at you, Utah), and hopefully this will help keep that at bay.
420_blackbirds
Can you give us a peek behind the curtain? Obviously, scouting at this level means going beyond typing a prospect name into Youtube. In addition to a scouting department, the Warriors have a video team to assemble scouting reports on every requested player.
All of this research must play an important role in developing the draft day strategy. Beyond that, I’m guessing that they continue to “scout” every player in the NBA at some level, as long as they’re in the league.
NBA scouting is still nothing compared to the intense and rigorous scouting that you see in baseball, but it is still a very big deal. According to RealGM’s database, the Warriors have two scouts, two pro scouts, two international scouts, and one advance scout, but that underscores just how many hands and eyeballs are at work leading up to the draft. Assistants, special assistants, and video coordinators are all playing huge roles here, along with part-time employees. And, ultimately, everyone up to Steve Kerr and Mike Dunleavy Jr.
In general, though, these things work like a pyramid. The lowest-level people in the process compile massive amounts of info on massive amounts of players, and as it moves up the chain, players are eliminated and the fat is trimmed from the data. It’s a process that starts as soon as the college basketball season begins, and doesn’t stop until draft day.
But seriously, it’s nothing compared to baseball: according to the San Francisco Giants’ directory, they have 64 different full-time employees with the word “scout” in their title.
9ergold:
I understand you may not be able to answer this …How can the NBA roll into the draft without first holding the Clippers accountable for hiding player payroll off the books and away from the NBA with zero draft pick penalties (as was levied against the penalty for the T-Wolves when they cheated the league on payroll hidden off the books) as well as the next season status of Kawhi, who was at the center of the matter?
It’s like Silver doesn’t plan to penalize the Clippers or Kawhi at all and acting like just nothing terrible even happened? To me, this undermines the credibility of the league, makes a joke of the NBA’s payroll & salary tier structure, and spits in the eye of every other team that didn’t cheat.
It’s a great question, and one that only Pablo Torre will be able to get to the bottom of. The simplest answer — though surely not the entire story — is that the NBA just hasn’t finished their investigation. It’s a massive investigation, and they’ve hired a huge, respected law firm to handle it. It’s going to take a while, and the league isn’t going to act until the investigation is completely concluded.
With that said, it wouldn’t surprise me if the league is waiting until after the offseason to do anything, regardless of the investigation. Assuming that they do find Kawhi Leonard and the LA Clippers guilty, it would make sense that they would seek to punish both. But what if Leonard gets traded, as has been rumored? If Leonard stays on the Clippers, the league could punish both parties in one fell swoop by suspending Leonard for a lengthy period (they would, presumably, further punish the Clippers with a fine and/or draft pick penalties).
But let’s say that the Clippers trade Leonard to, oh, I dunno … the Warriors. It’s hardly fair if the NBA then suspends Leonard for 25 games and punishes the Dubs, right? So I suspect sometime after the offseason chaos is over, the league will announce a conclusion to the investigation and some punishments that likely won’t faze Steve Ballmer.
MidcoastPerson:
Kerr emphasized that the Warriors need players who are regularly on the court. Does this mean they move on from both KP and Horford? If so, who would you replace them with?
I don’t think so. I think they very much hope that Al Horford opts into his deal, and they’ll be interested in bringing back Kristaps Porziņģis at the right price. The Dubs can talk all they want about having players regularly on the court, but at the end of the day, they’re an old team, and they’re in need of talent more than availability, so…
That said, I do think they target younger and more available players to round out the bench. They’re not bringing back both Gary Payton II and Seth Curry. But another way to address availability is to just have more players who deserve playing time. Part of why the Warriors have felt like they don’t have enough healthy bodies is because players like Trayce Jackson-Davis, Jonathan Kuminga, Quinten Post, Will Richard, and Buddy Hield fluctuated between being deserving of minutes and being glued to the bench. Get better players and it makes it easier to put up with Horford only playing 55 games.
RIP Thunder the mascot:
Steph Curry has gifted Warrior fans and the entire bay area an unquantifiable amount of sporting success and general philanthropy over the last decade and a half. Unfortunately, but predictably, there has been a diminishing return of success as his growing supermax salary has engulfed a larger % the team’s salary cap. No thanks to injuries nor Father Time, either..It’s rare but we’ve seen players sacrifice a hit on their salary for the greater good of the team. Look no further than Jalen Brunson and the Knicks who are, not coincidentally, in the finals this year. ESPN reported that Steph is eligible to sign a 2-year 136.7 million dollar extension in August. Do you see Steph taking a pay cut via a contract extension? If so, what can we offer this game breaking talent without insulting him… without insulting the players union.. and without stirring up a Kawhi cap circumvention controversy? It’s almost sacrilege to wonder.. but I think we all know how competitive our team will be without.
I wouldn’t expect a pay cut, but you never know with Steph Curry. If someone is willing to do it, it’s him. Though they will be very careful about not circumventing the rules, as you mention.
But here’s why I don’t expect it to happen: it usually doesn’t actually do anything. When players do take discounts, it’s usually when all the pieces are in place and a star is sacrificing a few million to make it easier to retain everyone (you might recall that Kevin Durant did this when he was with the Warriors). But for a team in Golden State’s situation, Curry taking a slight discount on an extension isn’t going to change things. It’s not going to give them the money to chase a free agent this year (where his max contract is already set), and it’s unlikely to make a tangible difference in the books next offseason. In all likelihood, taking a discount really only accomplishes one thing: saving Joe Lacob and Peter Guber, the two people in the organization with more money than Curry, a few million.
Thanks for the questions, everyone!
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