A detailed breakdown of UNC Baseball ahead of the Chapel Hill Regional

The final postseason of the college athletic season is finally here, and once again, the Diamond Heels of the University of North Carolina will be hosting a regional in the NCAA Tournament. College baseball seems to be drawing more eyes than ever this year, but given that most regular-season games are still on streaming-only platforms and there are a ton fewer places that cover the sport (and especially from an ACC/UNC lens) than for things like football and basketball, I’m certainly not going to judge anybody who’s choosing now to start really paying attention to Scott Forbes’ team. For you, and perhaps for Tennessee/ECU/VCU fans wanting to check out the competition, this will function as the most thorough look at the Diamond Heels that you’ll find on the Internet, at least for free. And hopefully, even if you’ve been following the team and program more committedly than most this season, there will still be some things in here for you to learn and/or talk about ahead of the games in Chapel Hill this weekend.

Overview

For the second straight year, UNC is an arguably under-seeded 5th overall seed after a 45-plus-win season with an elite pitching staff and an offensive lineup that survived a bunch of turnover. They don’t have some of the superlatives of last year’s team; namely, they don’t have a starter as good and consistent as Jake Knapp was nor do they have a big-time power threat like Luke Stevenson provided, but they’re a gritty squad that finds a way to win games — they lost just one series all season, and that was to Virginia to open ACC play. They have probably the best series win in the country after having taken 2 out of 3 against Georgia Tech at home, and in a lot of ways entered the postseason playing their best baseball. They had an up-and-down ACC Tournament — the offense was as live as it has ever been, while starting pitching struggled in their first two games before the entire arm barn ran into the buzzsaw that was Georgia Tech — but still have established themselves as one of the country’s premier squads, as has become tradition for head coach Scott Forbes at this point. Polls have had them at #2 in the country for basically the last month, and Forbes should once again have a team that should be a favorite to make Omaha and a threat to make noise once there.

Lineup

Remember how going into last year, all the talk about UNC was about all the power they were losing and that the Heels were going to have to lean into a different brand of baseball that relied on balls finding grass and guys going station-to-station instead of swinging for the fences? Last year’s team kind of did that, but nowhere near to the extent that it was stated after they took 5 games to hit their first home run. I think this year’s team does it a fair bit more. The slugging percentages are nearly identical; .478 to .487, but the 2025 Heels had 87 home runs in 61 games compared to this year’s 76 in 57. Last year’s team relied a ton on stealing bases to get guys in scoring position; this year, it’s been much more about just making contact and advancing runners with hits — the lineup isn’t as deep with on-base threats as last year’s, but the guys who hit for average do so at significantly higher clips while maintaining similarly high walk rates. This team has the typical discipline of a Scott Forbes club, ranking 13th in the country in total walks and 18th in walk rate, but they’ve cut down some on the high-ish strikeout rates that have annoyed past groups, ranking a respectable 56th in strikeout rate and 20th in K:BB ratio. Here’s an individual rundown:

1. SS Jake Schaffner (L/R, .362/.465/.580): Transferred to UNC from North Dakota State and has been a mainstay at the top of the lineup. Has a fantastic eye at the plate; has recorded 37 walks to 27 strikeouts. Rarely chases out of the zone and has a real knack for 2-strike hitting, where he can kind of just throw his wrists at the ball and flick it over the shortstop’s head. UNC’s best stolen base threat, has 25 on 28 attempts. Great defensive shortstop with plus range and an arm that plays well enough in college, and his speed has also helped him record 7 triples — the 3rd-highest total in the country.

2. 2B Gavin Gallaher (R/R, .275/.367/.488): The lone everyday returner in the lineup and a team captain. Hasn’t had quite the draft season he would have hoped for, but the numbers are pretty much in line with where he was last year before his postseason heroic gene activated. His feel for and control of the zone have been spotty this year and his pole-to-pole power, while clearly there, hasn’t always played this year, though he’s hit 3 home runs in his last 7 games to bring his season total to 12. The two-time Chapel Hill Regional Most Outstanding Player will be aiming to play his best baseball come tournament time once again. He’s moved from playing 3rd the last 2 years to second base this year, and he’s been awesome there — statistically he’s been the best defensive second baseman in the conference.

3. CF Owen Hull (L/R, .374/.487/.565): Transfer from George Mason and UNC’s batting average leader. Hull is the latest in a pretty legendary run of center fielders at UNC, and after a really slow start to the season, has lived up to the mantle. He’s built like a brick house at 6’4, 215, and while he doesn’t rake like the build suggests (7 home runs on the season), he consistently makes hard ground ball contact up the middle or to the opposite field that creates trouble for infielders. Sometimes he’ll just accidentally hit a rocket because there’s so much latent power in his body. Pairs all that with a decent eye (41:37 K-BB); the strikeouts have gone up as he’s gained more confidence in his swing after he started the season leading the country in walks. Pretty good defender in center field thanks to his athleticism, though he doesn’t have a standout arm or instincts at the position.

4. C/DH Macon Winslow (R/R, .310/.455/.522): Cross-rivalry transfer from Duke after coach Chris Pollard left. Winslow was good at Duke and has leveled up at UNC, improving both his average and power numbers (10 HR, .967 OPS compared to 9 and .881 last year). Pull-heavy swing and a disciplined approach, working a lot of counts deep and leading the team with 43 walks (to go with 38 Ks). Good defensive catcher who doesn’t get run on very often, but he’s now coming back from an injured wrist that might have influenced him not getting in front of 3 run-scoring wild pitches in the ACC Championship game — his rust will be something to monitor.

5. 3B Cooper Nicholson (R/R, .275/.452/.607): Junior college transfer from Iowa Central CC who has become the team’s power leader, with 15 home runs on the season. Swings for the fences on seemingly every pitch he sees in the zone, which leads to a fair bit of swing-and-miss (team-leading 51 Ks) but ends up being worth it as he leads the team in slugging. Power plays to all fields and he isn’t swinging blindly, with 38 walks. Also has a knack for getting hit by pitches, has racked up 21. Plays a pretty dynamic 3rd base but has had his share of errors — granted, it’s a tough position to play with metal bats, and he hasn’t been worse than Gallaher was last year (.909 fielding percentages for both. That’d be atrocious at any other position, but like I said, 3rd base is really tough in college).

6. 1B Erik Paulsen (L/L, .285/.419/.464): Transfer from Stony Brook. Started the season red-hot and looked like he might just replicate Stevenson’s power and average production one-to-one, but cooled off mightily over the course of April and May. When the swing is working, he’s capable of both pulling inside fastballs and poking outside pitches to the opposite field, but there’s a lot more swing-and-miss lately for a guy who once had elite zone control. It’s rare to say this about a first baseman, but Paulsen is a genuinely great defender at first. He won the CAA’s DPOY award last year at a position that’s usually taken for granted, and watching him play the position it’s easy to see why with his quick actions, footwork, and glove.

7. LF Tyler Howe (L/L, .250/.386/.368): A freshman from Huntersville who has settled into an everyday spot after some early-season shuffling at the corner outfield positions. The numbers aren’t fantastic but there’s a lot of promise here; he’s got fast hands and a compact, flat swing that reminds me a little of early-career Casey Cook, albeit without the elite zone control or contact rates that Cook already had. Good athlete on the bases and an okay defender with a big arm — has gunned down 3 runners at home from left field.

8. DH/C Colin Hynek (R/R, .273/.357/.483): The transfer from Georgia Tech has split time with Winslow at catcher, but is usually in the lineup regardless of whether he’s catching or not. Had outstanding power numbers at GSU, but that hasn’t really shown up in Chapel Hill (7 home runs). He has hit 3 triples, though, thanks to a knack for finding gaps in the outfield. Takes his share of noncompetitive at-bats at this level, but when he makes contact, it’s usually very hard. Slightly worse as a defensive catcher and receiver than Hynek — Forbes says his arm is stronger but it doesn’t play as such in-game.

9. RF Carter French (L/L, .231/.383/.288): For the second straight year, French has taken over as an everyday corner outfielder after the other options just weren’t consistent enough in the field or at the plate. It took him a while to get going this year; his average hovered around or just under .200 until near the end of April, since when he’s been closer to his old self. Controls the zone well and puts the ball in play, and is a plus athlete on the bases and in the field.

You may also see Rom Kellis V, who has been used as a corner outfielder against lefties and had a breakout game in the ACC Tournament semifinal, as well as guys like Jadyn Nunez, Perry Hargett, Michael Maginnis, and Sawyer Black, who have all seen some time as pinch-hitters or corner outfielders.

Pitching

Once again, these Heels have one of the best staff ERAs in the country, led by an ace starter, a second starter who’s been a little up and down but has certainly had big-time moments, and two stud relievers, supported by a deep staff that’s been inconsistent in comparison but decent in the big picture. The names are going to be familiar, as the Heels didn’t bring in a single transfer to the arm barn despite losing starters in Jake Knapp and Aidan Haugh, and so is the formula: starters who don’t have overwhelming strikeout numbers but limit walks and let their defense work, and relievers who get a little nastier and eat up the back innings.

• SP Jason DeCaro (R, 2.30 ERA): In his third season as a starter in Chapel Hill, DeCaro has put together his best year yet. He’s looked more or less the same as ever, but he’s improved his consistency and pitchability to be the best version of himself he can be. The fastball sits 91-94 with high spin but not much corresponding movement, but he locates it well to keep hitters off him and set up his sweeper, curve, and changeup, the latter of which has been a money pitch of late. He’ll allow more baserunners than you’d expect, but consistently manages to get the outs he needs. You’d like to see him get a little more length in the postseason; even in very good starts against Georgia Tech and N.C. State to close the season he only went 5 innings.

• SP Ryan Lynch (R, 4.44 ERA): Lynch’s transition from relief last year to starting this year has been a little rocky. He’s given the Heels length, leading the team in innings pitched, has the best K-BB of UNC’s high-use arms at 70:29, and has had a few good starts, but opposing offenses have had a lot more success against him as a starter than they did last year — his batting average against of .285 is really worrisome. Features a nasty 94-97 power sinker and a slider that has been off and on this season after being devastating last year, and has added a changeup this year that hasn’t really helped him. The stuff is clearly there to be elite, but it hasn’t been unlocked this season in his draft year — that said, he saved his best for last as a freshman.

• RP Caden Glauber (R, 1.93 ERA): Big-time freshman arm who has maybe one-upped what Lynch did as a relief ace last year en route to winning ACC Freshman of the Year and racking up the country’s 3rd-best ERA. He’s pitched 70 innings in relief and has not yet pitched in a game his team didn’t win. Has a lively 93-96 heater with a lot of armside run, a good changeup to throw to lefties, and a decent sweeper/slider, but the money pitch right now is the fastball, which lets him get ahead in seemingly every count he faces. He’s also got a knack for inducing GIDPs when he needs them thanks to the sink on his heater.

• RP Walker McDuffie (R, 2.82 ERA): Pitched his way into UNC fans’ hearts last year with his baby face and Wild Thing glasses, and has leveled up his game this year after a slow start. His sweeper continues to be one of the best putout pitches in the country and he leads the team in strikeout rate thanks in large part to it (79 in 60.2 IP). His 92-95 sinker continues to be underrated and he’s been locating it better of late, while he’s also added a changeup to the arsenal that’s been effective against lefties. Reliance on getting swing-and-miss on the sweeper means he walks a few more hitters than is optimal, but he gets enough whiffs that it rarely hurts him.

• SP Folger Boaz (L, 7.30 ERA): Has returned to a starting role after pitching out of the pen last year, and results have varied. Got hit around the park in 3 of his last 4 starts, but in fairness those were against Georgia Tech twice and a good N.C. State lineup, and he put together one of his best starts of the season in between those against a dangerous Pitt offense. Throws a 91-93 fastball that’s run as high as 96 in-game as of late, as well as a nasty slider and a sharp cutter, but struggles to get righties out because the changeup lags behind his other offerings.

• RP Jackson Rose (L, 2.82 ERA): Another freshman arm who’s been impressive, especially in relief. Hasn’t done great given midweek starting opportunities, but has thrived out of the pen with an 89-92 fastball that he locates well, to go with a nasty changeup. Has a batting average against under .200 and a WHIP comparable to McDuffie’s, albeit in lower-leverage situations and probably including work against worse lineups.

Other names to know include captain Matthew Matthijs, who has had an up-and-down season but is trusted to get outs late in games, and Cam Padgett, a flamethrowing righty who’s done some of his best work in the last month.