Wait, didn’t I just do one of these? No, seriously. Literally a week ago I was in this space talking about how the Giants were going to see how they measured up against a non-Dodger, non-Padre NL West opponent and a team that had all the scrappiness they’ve craved. So… has anything changed since then?
Nope.
Well, except that Arizona embarrassed the Giants pretty thoroughly, dropping them to 20-30 on the season and compelling Bay Area media to ponder not just on the radio airwaves but in an interview with Buster Posey himself if the team was undergoing a “soft rebuild.” They looked so bad in getting swept by Arizona that people thought it must’ve been intentional.
It turns out that, no, the Giants aren’t doing a “soft rebuild,” they really are bad despite trying.
Oh sure, winning a series against a White Sox team on the upswing is good fun and Rafael Devers’ bat does seem to be swinging back to his career averages, but the hole is pretty deep, and that’s before considering how it’s been endemic within Giants fandom this season to extrapolate a season of success from a win or two. Now, before accusations of simply doing the exact opposite — extrapolating a season of misery from losing streaks — I must point out that the Giants have lost a lot more games than they’ve won and have spent most of this season looking more bad than good, including approximately 117 hours ago against this very team.
In the Giants’ favor is that Arizona did lose 1 of the 4 games they hosted against the Colorado Rockies, so, it’s not like the Giants were gobbled up by a team on a white-hot streak of success. The Dbacks outscored the Rockies 19-9 in those four games compared to 23-8 against the Giants in their three-game series, so, the Giants are kinda-sorta worse than the Rockies at this point.
On May 8, Arizona tied their season low of 3 games below .500 at 17-20 (they started the season 0-3). Since then, they’ve gone 11-4. Ketel Marte (202 wRC+) and Corbin Carroll (198) have led the charge on offense — they combined for 7-for-11 with 5 RBI in today’s 9-1 win over the Rockies, with Marte hitting a pair of doubles and Carroll a pair of triples. So, they’re rolling. The rotation has been strong, with Michael Soroka (1.50 ERA), Eduardo Rodriguez (1.74 ERA), and Merrill Kelly (2.05 ERA) making three strong starts apiece. But, they’ve also played 9 home games during this stretch and are 8-1.
Arizona’s road record on the season (10-14, -16 run differential) might just be how the Giants get some baseball revenge on the snakes. If the Giants keep hitting a little bit more like how they did in the latter two games of the White Sox series, they’ve got a solid shot of winning the series. Here’s a little secret: in the same “Since May 9th” split I used up above to contextualize Marte’s and Carroll’s hot streaks, five Giants have hit above league average (an important note that none of these figures incorporate the latest win):
And, as a team, they have a 113 wRC+ Hey! This is all great news! It certainly is the silver lining in what has been a very thick and steady coverage of storm clouds. The question is can the pitching keep pace? It’s Landen Roupp and a pair of TBDs against those three Arizona starters who’ve helped propel them back into the Wild Card chase. They have a 5.02 ERA over these last 15 (and are just 7-8).
Logan Webb is expected to make his return on Wednesday, but you have permission to wonder if Logan Webb is still LOGAN WEBB. Before he hit the IL, I looked at how a guy like him with so many innings on his arm might already have pitched his best games. Buster Posey and the Giants are certainly hoping that’s not the case, and whatever little success the team has this season will be because he’s making regular starts… but who knows? Arizona’s hot, Webb is not. But, it’s also baseball, and one game can turn around a lot of things. But can three games turn around everything?
Series overview
Who: San Francisco Giants (22-31) vs. Arizona Diamondbacks (28-24)
Where: Oracle Park | San Francisco, California
When: Monday at 2:05pm PT, Tuesday at 6:45pm PT, Wednesday at 12:45pm PT
National broadcasts: None.
Projected starters
Monday: Landen Roupp (RHP 5-4, 3.27 ERA) vs. Merill Kelly (RHP 4-3, 5.71 ERA)
Tuesday: TBD vs. Eduardo Rodriguez (LHP 4-1, 2.24 ERA)
Wednesday: TBD vs. Michael Soroka (RHP 6-2, 3.27 ERA)
Prediction time
The Giants will not get swept.
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