CLEVELAND — The Cleveland Cavaliers are a vastly different team now than they were three years ago. Yet, here they are in a similar spot they were then: Losing to the New York Knicks in the playoffs in humiliating fashion. Just this time, it’s in the Eastern Conference Finals instead of the first round.
And somehow, the gap feels wider now. Or at least it has through three games.
The Knicks outclassed the Cavs in nearly every area, as they came away with a 121-108 Game 3 victory in a contest they never trailed in. They now have a 3-0 lead with a chance of ending Cleveland’s season on Monday.
It’s clear who’s been better through three games. The Knicks are just a complete basketball team in a way that the Cavs aren’t.
Offensively, they have a better understanding of how they want to attack their opponent. They’re lethal at all three levels. That variety means they aren’t overly reliant on the three-ball or getting to the free-throw line.
Each starter can pass, dribble, and shoot at an average level or better. If you sell out to stop one, there’s someone behind them capable of making you pay for it.
They aren’t without deficiencies defensively. Jalen Brunson and Karl-Anthony Towns are both below-average defenders for their position, but the team compensates for that well.
The Knicks know how to keep both from being on an island defensively. The player they’re trying to hide is comfortable hedging and then recovering back to his man, while the more adept defender fights through the screen. That’s something you need to be proficient at if you know your opponent is going to try to single someone out.
But more than that, they have principles that guide them defensively. They’ve relentlessly tagged the roller and have sold out to stop interior passes and easy looks around the rim. That can make them susceptible to outside shots, but hasn’t thus far this postseason.
This stands in stark contrast with the Cavs.
Cleveland doesn’t have those same guiding principles on either end. They’re too willing to take the path of least resistance. That has allowed the Knicks to bait the Cavs into taking the shots they want them to offensively (threes) and attacking the guys they want to defensively (James Harden).
The Knicks are surrendering open threes, and the Cavs still can’t make them pay.
Before the game, both coaches talked about the open three-point looks the Cavs generated through the first two games.
Cavs head coach Kenny Atkinson preached wanting his team to stick to the process. “Keep taking them,” Atkinson said after mentioning the three-point looks his team took in Game 2 were in the 93rd percentile.
Meanwhile, Knicks head coach Mike Brown said that his team needed to “do a better job” of contesting open looks. “We’ve gotten a little lucky. They’ve missed some shots.”
That luck continued. The Cavs overall went just 12-41 (29.3%) from three. On the series, they’ve now missed 89 triples and are shooting below 30%.
It’d be one thing if this were a normal defensive game plan, but the Knicks are simply daring the Cavs best shooters to beat them, and they inexplicably aren’t. That includes Harden and Donovan Mitchell who combined to go 4-17 from beyond the arc.
“We gotta make shots,” Harden said. “We haven’t really made a shot since the first quarters in Game 1.”
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Fatigue may have something to do with the missed shots. The Cavs haven’t had consecutive off days for three-and-a-half weeks now. Tired legs inevitably make it more difficult to shoot. But that isn’t an excuse that you could really use, considering what came before.
Cleveland had golden opportunities to win Games 4 and 6 against the Toronto Raptors, and didn’t come out with the force needed in Game 6 against the Detroit Pistons. Taking care of a few of those winnable games would’ve given them more rest, so this wouldn’t have been an issue.
“We did it to ourselves, we can’t be mad now,” Mitchell said.
You pay for every mistake that you make in the playoffs, either in the moment or in the future. Cleveland’s previous errors are catching up to them now against a team they need to be playing at or near the top of their game to beat.
You aren’t going to win many playoff games when your best player has the worst plus/minus in the game.
The Cavs lost the minutes Mitchell played by 22. This is the fourth time he’s been a -10 or worse this postseason, and they’ve lost each of those games.
The holes in Mitchell’s games are showing through in this postseason, but particularly in this series. When the outside shot isn’t falling, his only counter is to get to the basket. That has allowed him to still put up respectable scoring numbers. Although the impact on the game isn’t what it needs to be.
There’s more to basketball than just scoring. He hasn’t made consistent enough efforts at defending, rebounding, or playmaking for others to be a positive contributor in those areas. That’s part of why he hasn’t been able to carry lineups without Harden (-7.3 net rating, 23rd percentile).
Mitchell is being outplayed by Brunson for the third time in the postseason dating back to their time in the Western Conference. Both are similar from a talent perspective as undersized scoring guards. But Brunson is better at all the little things that show through in the postseason.
Brunson’s ability to set up his teammates (14 assists in Game 2), compete defensively, and attack in the midrange are all things that Mitchell doesn’t consistently have in his game. That versatility has allowed him to elevate his groups on days he doesn’t have it going as a scorer.
It was easy to see where the Cavs went wrong when they fell on their face three years ago. That group was inexperienced and didn’t have enough outside shooting to be functional in the postseason.
This team is considerably better. You don’t luck your way into being a conference finalist. However, figuring out the next step forward is more difficult, especially for the most expensive roster in the league that doesn’t have many additional levers to pull.
There’s no simple solution to this. LeBron James deciding to come back home and signing for far below market value would help, but it doesn’t necessarily fix everything given he’ll be 42 at this time next year. There would still be holes defensively, and the offense wouldn’t be smooth with multiple ball-dominant players.
Pivoting further by moving more integral pieces is easier said than done. Would you really want to trade Evan Mobley, one of the few Cavaliers who’s elevated his game in the playoffs? Does it make sense to further break up the nucleus of one of the most successful eras in franchise?
At the same time, it’s dangerous to continue betting on a group that has shown the same flaws in multiple postseason runs. That includes deciding whether or not to give Mitchell a further extension this summer.
Firing Atkinson would be the simplist solution. It’s easier to get rid of the coach than it is the team. But I’m not sure this is a coaching issue when we saw this group go seven games with the previous fall guy.
The gap between who the Cavs are and who they want to be is wider than it’s been since Mitchell was traded over. And there’s no easy answer for any of this.
The Cavaliers are one loss away from what could be an unpredictable summer.
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