We step outside the lab again today to take a look at the argument for an Astros tear down. There are two main reasons why a rebuild makes a ton of sense. So, we should take a look at what that looks like and the whys and what fors for a decision as seemingly rash as this. Isn’t this giving up on the season? Indeed it would be and that is the first thing we should take a look at.
In a previous post, I looked at the Astros current math problem. They sit at 20-30 as I write this. In order to win 85 games they would need to finish 65-47. That’s assuming that 85 wins sneaks you into the playoffs. That’s a 94 win pace over a full season. I don’t think any of my colleagues picked them to win that many games. I had them pegged at 85 wins and that was assuming good health for guys like Hunter Brown. I just don’t see .580 baseball as very likely from here on out.
However, the Astros usual course is to continue trying to win and then adjusting for the next season on the fly. If it means that players depart for free agency then so be it. You get your compensation pick (when you tender them a qualifying offer) and hope that your farm system can pick up the pieces. Framber Valdez took the spot of Gerrit Cole. Jeremy Pena took Carlos Correa’s place. Kyle Tucker replaced George Springer. You get the idea.
Reason One: The farm system is barren
You cannot expect someone to come up and replace the stars. In the span of another year plus, you are on pace to lose Jeremy Pena and possibly Hunter Brown (more on that later). There isn’t anyone in the farm system there to take their spots. So, you are essentially just losing guys for the sake of losing them. This dive bombs us into the real reason why a rebuild is necessary. Simply put, you are on a hamster wheel and there is no good way to get off.
Even if you could re-sign Jeremy Pena or Hunter Brown then you would be committing all of your resources to keeping a team together that is not currently good enough to win. Jose Altuve and Carlos Correa are going to continue to get older and less effective as that nucleus gets older. The younger guys behind them will also continue to get more expensive.
There are only two ways around that hamster wheel. The first is to spend money like the Dodgers. We aren’t even sure what the CBA will look like after the season and if that will even be legal. However, it is nearly impossible to envision Crane spending upwards of 300 million on the roster. The other way to get through it is to fill enough holes with young players that you can compete. Neither of those scenarios seems likely.
Reason two: You aren’t likely re-signing Hunter Brown or Jeremy Pena
It just isn’t likely for any multitude of reasons. For one, both are in line for one of the long-term megadeals that the Astros simply don’t pay. For another, we aren’t even sure that they would deserve that kind of pay day even if we were willing. Given the recent history of the Astros, I seriously doubt they would sign any pitcher to a contract beyond two or three seasons. This could be an industry wide thing.
Pena has the look of a three or four win player moving forward. Fangraphs would peg that as worth between 25 and 30 million a season, but it is hard to see the Astros giving a deal beyond five seasons at that kind of money. I personally would not blame them. If that is a given then playing them until they are free agents is a foolish option. As we saw with Kyle Tucker, you could get as many as three useful players for a player with one year left until they become a free agent.
Imagine having more than a season. Teams that make deals at the deadline can demand a king’s ransom because the acquiring team gets them for two pennant drives. You could then get between six and eight players if you deal them separately, If you dealt them together you could demand multiple top 100 overall prospects and probably some current big league talent.
A roster without Pena and Brown would likely not compete in any circumstance. So, you might as well trade the likes of Paredes, Walker, Abreu, Hader, and Meyers. If you managed to jettison all of them you could be looking at between five to ten additional prospects. That is a total of 10 to 16 prospects between all of those players. The coup de gras would be Yordan Alvarez, If you got a Juan Soto type deal you could see another four or five prime prospects coming. We are talking a total of 20 prospects.
The Cash considerations
If you traded all of the players listed you would be looking at upwards of 120 million in player salary savings. Between 1998 and 2000 the Seattle Mariners dealt or allowed three of their stars to walk. They won 114 games in 2001. Obviously, that is the absolute ceiling of what we are talking about here, but the blueprint is there. You cannot just consider the players you get back for those players. You must also consider the financial savings from cutting their salaries from your roster.
Those Mariners used the money to sign good but not great players that made that roster deeper. No, they did not win the World Series that season and they were never THAT good again, but they were constantly above .500 and in the hunt even though they dealt three Hall of Fame level players. The St. Louis Cardinals dealt all of their expensive players away this past season and they currently sit at 28-19.
The difference between this and a traditional rebuild is that Crane has shown he is willing to spend up to the current tax line. If you couple the right prospects with 120 million worth of free agents then you could return to competitiveness immediately. You also restart the clock on star level players so that you aren’t necessarily churning veterans every year. You could build something.
I’m not sure Dana Brown is up to this task. That is the downside. However, if you couple these moves with another solid draft then your farm system goes from being one of the bottom five to one of the top five. It’s time to start building the next great era of Astros baseball. This one is winding down. It has happened to all dynasties before. The 1990s Braves feels like the most compelling comparison point. Those Braves got old. These Astros are getting old. No one wants to sit around and watch the 2010-2014 Astros again. A teardown would prevent that kind of prolonged pain if handled correctly. What do you think? Is it time to start the teardown?
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