The White Sox are finally having a shred of success after being absolutely barren for three straight years. What does that mean? It means it’s time to start complaining about the disrespect shown to the South Side by [insert national media apparatus here].
Legal sports gambling is an absolute and utter plague upon humanity and should be burnt to a crisp with fire, but I must admit extremely begrudgingly that the disgustingly ubiquitous integration of odds and gambling lines into every corner of sports are useful to the extent that they provide a solid quantitative litmus test of where public opinion lies on any given topic. If it feels like Davis Martin isn’t quite getting his due despite entering today’s start with a 1.64 ERA good for second-best in the AL, you’re not wrong. The amount of respect being afforded to him might be reflected in his absence from ESPN’s purported Top 10 Cy Young favorites, while his opponent on the hill today, Logan Gilbert, made the list despite a 4.30 ERA that would be his worst mark since his rookie season.
Nonetheless, statistical indicators are a much bigger fan of Martin’s work so far. Tom Tango’s Cy Young prediction algorithm, which tries to reflect voting behavior in terms of which stats are weighted the most heavily, has him in third place based on ERA, and second place based on FIP. The same projection systems also cast a lot of doubt on Martin’s ability to hold anything close to this pace — Tango’s formula has him finishing in 14th and 16th place, respectively. It’ll be on Martin to prove them wrong, and he’ll have another opportunity to do so today. He’s worked into the seventh inning in four of his last five starts, and another such effort today will start to put this run near historic territory for the long-gestating 29-year-old righty.
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After cycling through a few different options early in the season, it might just be possible that Will Venable has found his leadoff hitter of the future in Sam Antonacci, who is 5-for-17 (.294) hitting first, with two walks, two of his trademark hit batsmen, and five runs scored. That bottom half of the lineup still leaves much to be desired, and I might wager that Drew Romo is the only one who will still be on the roster two months from now.
But if Munetaka Murakami, Miguel Vargas and Colson Montgomery do anything like they did in last night’s 5-1 win, that might not even matter today. Despite all his ups and downs, Vargas has quietly become an extra-base hit machine since the start of last season, racking up 64 of them in 177 games, which works out to 59 per 162. Here are the two most recent of them, ICYMI:
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The lackluster bottom of the lineup also might not matter if Martin continues to do what he’s been doing, which is demonstrate outstanding command of a genuine six-pitch arsenal. It is really hard to throw that many different pitches and still manage the sub-5% walk rate that Martin has to this point. He gets ahead in the count and forces hitters to swing at pitches they probably wouldn’t swing at, if they had a choice.
All that being the case, the key indicator for how this game might go will be Martin’s ability to consistently throw first-pitch strikes, which allows him to aggressively go after hitters in the zone who have no idea which of his six pitches might be coming.
This is a free-swinging Mariners team that’s tied with the Sox for fifth in MLB in strikeout rate. They’re a bottom-10 teams in terms of runs scored, but a Top 10 team in rate stats like OPS and wRC+. It’s a lineup that’s probably due to turn around sooner rather than later, so let’s hope they can put that off for one more game before both teams move on to the next series.
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First pitch is scheduled for at 1:10 p.m. CT, live from Rate Field in Armour Square. If you want to join us, broadcasts are available on CHSN (TV) and WMVP AM 1000 (radio) like always!
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