Royals return favor and walk off Tigers, 4-3

Royals broadcast Ryan LeFebvre has a handful of topics he likes to bring up as often as he can. Leadoff walks late in the game, pitchers catching popups, whether a catcher has an advantage when facing a pitcher he’s caught before. But one of the things he brings up a lot that I actually kind of appreciate is the idea of a “circle your scorecard” moment. This comes from Ryan’s own practice of circling what he believes are key plate appearances in a game where the outcome helps define the winner of the game.

You can go ahead and put a big old circle around May 8 on your 2026 calendars. If the Royals play into October this year, this game will be a big part of the reason why.

That’s enough of me pontificating; let’s talk about how the game went.

Kris Bubic was fighting his control for most of this game. Ultimately, he only gave up 3 runs in 5.2 innings, which is the next best thing to a quality start. But he walked 4 and only struck out 5. His fastballs, in particular, were all over the place.

That’s way too many in the middle of the zone and way too many nowhere near the zone. But still, he did his job.

Nick Mears came in, allowed the inherited runner to score, and then escaped. He almost escaped without allowing the runner to score thanks to some slick defense by Isbel – more to come – and Bobby Witt Jr., but Carter Jensen was unable to hang on to Bobby’s relay. The throw beat Dillon Dingler to the plate fairly easily, but you can’t tag a runner out if you don’t have the ball. And that felt like the ballgame.

Luinder Avila followed him out of the bullpen and had a clean inning, John Schreiber pitched the eighth, and, thanks to Kyle Isbel – who we will talk about more in a bit – running all over the dang place, escaped unharmed.

Lucas Erceg’s first pitch was a middle-middle fastball that got launched into right-center for a leadoff double, but he caught a break when Zack Short popped up a sacrifice bunt attempt. Scarily, the break almost ended up being his knee as he and catcher Elias Díaz collided while both sliding to attempt to catch the ball – Díaz made the play anyway, but Erceg stayed on the ground for a few minutes and ultimately stayed in the game.

Erceg’s fastball velocity was down around 95 tonight – even before the collision – so things were pretty touch and go. He got Kerry Carpenter to fly out for the second out, but he ended up walking Kevin McGonigle to face Colt Keith, who had hit the walk-off single against Erceg and the Royals in the heartbreaker in Detroit. This time, though, Erceg coerced him to hit a pop-up on the infield, and the Royals’ bats had a chance in the ninth.

So, yeah, I guess we need to talk about the offense. Keider Montero got the start tonight, and the Royals tagged him for four runs in six innings last time they saw him. They’ve been hitting better, so you might have hoped they’d get to him even more tonight. Sadly, it was not to be. Montero ended up pitching six innings of one-run ball.

The Royals had three barrelled balls, only one turned into a hit. Of the 17 balls the Royals put in play, 7 were considered hard hit and turned into outs. The Royals only got three hits, and all were .800 xBA or better. The Royals couldn’t get anything to fall. Then, in the seventh, AJ Hinch caused Ryan to cite one of Denny’s favorite things to pick on. He summoned a reliever despite the fact that Montero, outside back-to-back smash hits from Jac Caglianone and Isaac Collins with two outs in the second inning, had been absolutely dominant. Denny’s point – which is a point you’ll hear anyone who has watched baseball for very long make – is that every time you bring in a fresh reliever, even if he’s been good all year, you risk that this time he just doesn’t have it. Denny and Ryan compare it to spinning a roulette wheel. I’ve compared it to making a parlay bet.

Now, at first, it seemed Hinch was doing just fine. Tyler Holton came on to face Carter Jensen, Caglianone, and Collins, and he got them 1-2-3. But then, just as I was beginning to whine on social media about how much I hate the Tigers, he called upon his second closer out of three, Kyle Finnegan, who had a 0.51 ERA entering the night. When he left, it was 1.53, and the wheels fell off fast.

Michael Massey, leading off, took a splitter that didn’t quite dive out of the zone and drove it into left-center for a leadoff double. Kyle Isbel – we’re still not done talking about him – drove him in with a single. Wencéel Perez, who had driven in the go-ahead run back in the sixth inning, let it go under his glove, and Isbel managed to go all the way to third. We didn’t even have time to start arguing about whether Kyle should have tried to score before Maikel Garcia smashed a line drive right back at the centerfield camera to single Isbel home and tie the game.

Bobby Witt Jr. walked after he finally challenged a fastball just off the outside edge that had been frustratingly called a strike against KC most of the night, and that they had let go unremarked. The Royals had runners at first and second, no one out, for Vinnie and Salvy.

Now, Vinnie and Salvy have been doing better lately. Vinnie, in particular, had a couple of really good swings earlier in the game against Montero. One of them would have been a home run in 14 parks, but was a flyout at Kauffman. But the Tigers called in another lefthander, Brant Hurter, and Vinnie had a 3 wRC+ against lefties coming into tonight. As Matthew Lamar pointed out on social media, this is what Lane Thomas is in KC for.

Salvy, even at his hottest, doesn’t belong in the middle of a big league lineup anymore. We’ve talked about this ad nauseam, so I don’t need to reiterate it. But Vinnie grounded into a double play, and Salvy did everything he could to make an out but was ultimately forced to take a walk. Finally, Lane Thomas was called upon to pinch hit for catcher Carter Jensen – that’s why Díaz was in in the ninth – and he grounded out to end the threat. The game felt over again. Especially after the previously described first pitch from Erceg in the ninth.

In the bottom of the ninth, things continued to go poorly. Hurter was left in to face Caglianone, Collins, and Massey. Cags got a hittable pitch, but one he needed to go the other way with; instead, he hit a soft liner to right for an out. Collins struck out looking. Then Nick Loftin pinch-hit for Massey.

Now, I wasn’t a fan of this move. There were already two outs and we were surely going to want Massey’s glove in the tenth. Even if Loftin got on, Kyle Isbel – almost there! – was next up and against a lefty, that didn’t seem worth bothering with. Loftin had a really good at-bat that ended with him smashing a double into the left-center gap. Great, here comes Izzy to face the lefty.

Isbel did exactly what he should do with that pitch when facing that pitcher, and it was jsut enough to walk off the game.

The Royals now only need to win one of the next two games to be able to claim a successful homestand. No one in Kansas City would complain if they replicated each of their past two weekends and swept the dang thing. But, either way, it will all start again tomorrow night.

Michael Wacha (3.05 ERA) will take the mound for Kansas City. The Tigers started the day with TBA as their starter, changed it to Ty Madden at some point this evening, and now it shows old friend Burch Smith (1.59 ERA in 11.1 innings of relief in only his second big league season since 2021) taking the ball first. Regardless of who starts the game, it – like Sunday’s contest – is likely to be a bullpen affair. Lots of opportunities for AJ Hinch to come up snake eyes in his roulette parlay. The Royals just need to be ready to leap on it at least as well as they were tonight.