In an attempt to remake a starting rotation expected to lose a two-time All-Star, the Astros traded two prospects from a barren farm system to acquire Mike Burrows from the Pittsburgh Pirates last December.
An 11th round pick by the Pirates in 2018, Burrows finally made his Major League debut in 2024 and put himself on the map by posting a 3.94 ERA with a 24.1 percent strikeout rate and a 7.7 percent walk rate, both better than league average. Burrows emerged as an above-average starting pitcher, and with five years of club control it’s the type of high-ceiling move smart clubs make.
So far, the trade has been a flop.
Burrows is 1-3 with a 6.75 ERA in his first five starts with the Astros. His walk rate has dipped slightly from last season, but his strikeout rate is down to 20.5 percent. He has finished the sixth inning just once and allowed three runs or more in all but one start.
Burrows arrived in Houston regarded as having one of baseball’s best changeups. While it hasn’t been quite as effective this season, opponents are batting just .188 with a 37.1% whiff rate against it. His biggest problem has been his fastball getting crushed.
Lefties are 8 for 16 with three home runs against Burrows’ four-seam fastball, while righties are 8 for 20 with a homer against his two-seam. Burrows didn’t throw the two-seam often with the Pirates, so it’s not surprising he’s experiencing some early growing pains with it, but the four-seam needs to be better. Left-handed hitters batted .270 with two homers against it in 2025.
But there are reasons for optimism.
For 14 batters against the Cardinals on Sunday, Burrows looked like the pitcher the Astros thought they were getting. He retired all 14, seven via strikeouts, before Masyn Winn singled through the left side of the infield. The next four batters also reached, and Burrows couldn’t finish the fifth inning despite starting the game 14 up, 14 down.
“I don’t want to take away from how well he pitched those first four innings,” Astros manager Joe Espada said. “I think the fifth doesn’t speak for how well he threw the ball. He had his stuff working.”
There are two main reasons the Astros should be confident that Burrows can make the first 14 batters from his last start more the norm than the final five.
There is always an adjustment after changing teams. Aside from the obvious change of leaving the only organization you’ve ever known, your new team is going to ask you to tweak certain aspects of your game. The Astros have been no different with Burrows.
The Astros have overhauled Burrows’ pitch usage. His two-seam fastball, which has produced poor results, is now his primary pitch against right-handed hitters after being used less than 10 percent of the time last season. They’ve also lowered his arm slot from 48 degrees to 39.
Burrows has also been somewhat unlucky so far this season. His FIP is nearly two runs lower than his ERA, and his BABIP is almost 90 points higher than league average despite a lack of hard contact. Opponents have a 33.8 percent chase rate against him, more than six percentage points higher than a season ago.
Per Baseball Savant, no pitcher has been hurt more by his defense. Through Sunday’s start, the Astros are at -4 runs prevented with Burrows on the mound and -5 outs above average.
Burrows hasn’t lived up to the high expectations the Astros had for him when he was acquired last winter, but they didn’t make the trade for five starts. The Astros traded for Burrows because they thought he could help lead their rotation for the next five seasons, and there are still reasons to think that could still be the case.
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