It’s a long season that’s just getting underway, but the St. Louis Cardinals are performing in some surprising ways. Jordan Walker…might be a thing? (Crosses fingers, avoids black cats, throws salt over shoulder. Let’s just do everything we can do to manifest it for this kid.) JJ Wetherholt looks to be the player advertised. Matt Svanson thinks he’s a Little League pitcher (that is not something I saw coming), and the bullpen at large seems as though it’ll be raising our blood pressure all year. Through two starts, Michael McGreevy’s baseball card numbers look really nice, but there are more warning signs than redacted portions of the Epstein files. To put it succinctly, he’s dancing on the edge of a knife.
Before we go diving into numbers to back up my claim, I think it’s important that we establish some groundwork. Michael McGreevy was never going to be a top of the rotation arm. He’s a quintessentially a Mozielak era draft and develop story as there ever has been. You’re familiar with the trope: a polished, college righty with pitch-to-contact stuff. Last year he had fans clamoring for more as he bumfuzzled major league lineups while he was riding the Zach Thompson Memorial Bullet Train back and forth to Memphis. He’s destined to be a back-of-the-rotation innings guy. There’s nothing wrong with that, that’s just the ceiling. Long term, I’m afraid McGreevy is going to be swamped by the tidal wave of K punch the organization is developing in the minors.
In fact, if you’re interested in audio/visual content, we talked more about Michael McGreevy with Kevin Wheeler (!) in the latest edition of Cardinals on My Time (™ Scott Plaza!). You can check it out here if that’s of interest to you, Apple and Spotify.
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With that context established, let’s look at the data through three starts for Mr. McGreevy. As I mentioned, the baseball card stats are good. He’s averaging 5.1 innings per start with a 2.16 ERA and a 3.12 FIP. He’s been the most valuable pitcher in this young season thus far. On the surface, this is looking like the very best years of the Miles Mikolas experience. Ok, now while you’re recovering from that name drop, let’s be honest: McGreevy’s profile is quite similar to Mikolas’. Here’s the thing, Miles Mikolas had not one, but two, legitimately all-star caliber seasons for the Cardinals. I know that’s hard to remember through the mists of the hard contact, but it’s true.
There are going to be stretches where Michael McGreevy looks…pretty good. If all things go well, I wouldn’t even rule out a fringe all-star season a la Mikolas. And, honestly, I’m rooting for his success, aren’t you?
This is where the Mike Schildt happy talk ends though. Because McGreevy scares the you know what out of me right now. Those ERA and FIP stats are nice and glittery, but the xERA is like the evil stepmother lurking in the shadows. Michael McGreevy’s expected ERA is 7.80. That is…catastrophic. Miles Mikolas this year is running an 7.85 expected ERA. I know I just kinda sorta praised Mikolas (I took a shower right after, don’t worry), but you do not want to be linked to Miles Mikolas’ pitching performance in 2026.
So, what gives? Expected ERA is one level smarter than ERA. ERA doesn’t care how you got there, xERA does. It factors in the quality of contact against a pitcher to give a better picture of how well they’re actually pitching. And, well, McGreevy is terrifying right now. While you’re reading these next stats, play the crescendo of a horror film in your mind. His barrel percentage is in the 26th percentile. His groundball percentage is below average. He’s not missing any bats at all with a whiff percentage in the fifth percentile and not fooling any batters with a chase percentage in the 28th percentile.
Translation: McGreevy is getting smoked. What’s worse is this damage is occurring in the air at levels we’ve never seen in his career before. Why is air contact worse? How many groundball homeruns and doubles have you ever seen? What’s keeping him afloat? He’s currently running a .204 BABIP – he’s getting crazy lucky.
A deeper look at his arsenal and command reveals the conundrum that looks ready to plague him his whole career. He has a Location+ of 110. That’s amazing and in line with his career averages. McGreevy is one of the best pitchers alive when it comes to placing pitches where he wants them to go. The problem comes when you look at his Stuff+. Right now it’s checking in at an anemic 76. To put it bluntly, that’s not competitive in a major league setting. McGreevy must maintain elite command if he’s going to be a viable pitcher with a long MLB career.
This brings us to the final, and most worrying issue. That Stuff+ rating is directly tied to his fastball. And that fastball is currently dragging him down faster than an Old Testament millstone around the neck. In 2024 and 2025 he averaged exactly 93 mph with the heater. He’s only at 90.7 mph thus far. He’s been literally quoted as saying that the fastball velocity issue keeps him up at night. So, we know they haven’t solved it yet. Unfortunately, there’s only so much pinpoint control will do for you. His “stuff” is in danger of slipping off the earth and into the void where major league hitters are teeing off on him.
Is he injured? There’s no indication of that. Maybe it’s a cold April, early season thing? Perhaps a mechanical issue is at fault? Whatever it is, it’s going to have to be solved if McGreevy is going to survive in this rotation. He’s probably always going to be on the edge of competitiveness because of his stuff. It’s just that right now with the velocity decrease he’s dancing on the edge of a knife. Hopefully, they can solve it – I’ll be rooting for that outcome!
If you’d like #evenmorecoverage, feel free to follow me on twitter @mksmith86. I’m usually watching the game. Honestly, your best bet is to follow our podcast on twitter @redbirdrundown2 – we post a lot more there.
Let me know how you’re feeling about McGreevy in the comments. Thanks for reading!
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