2026 NBA Championship Odds: Spur of the Moment

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The San Antonio Spurs are peaking at just the right time.

An afterthought when the season began, San Antonio has gone 21-3 since the All-Star break and is now breathing down the neck of the Oklahoma City Thunder, who sit just three games ahead of them in the Western Conference standings.

The Spurs’ steady surge hasn’t just shifted the standings; it’s set the betting markets on fire. Now tied for the second-best odds to win the NBA Championship, the Spurs have the look of a team that’s just getting started.

Let’s break down the latest odds as the league races towards the playoffs.

🏆 2026 NBA Championship odds

Odds courtesy of bet365, one of our best betting sites. Sign up with our bet365 promo code, or get one of our other sportsbook promos.

The Thunder’s odds have moved from +230 before the season began to +115 today. Rounding out the Top 5 are the Boston Celtics (+500), San Antonio Spurs (+500), Denver Nuggets (+1000), and Cleveland Cavaliers (+1400).

NBA Championship odds movement

The San Antonio Spurs have won nine of their last 10 games, possess the second-best net rating in the West, and have beaten the Oklahoma City Thunder four times. Give them their flowers.

San Antonio’s odds have shifted from +650 to +500 over the past two weeks, and there’s a possibility they could even leapfrog the Boston Celtics on the odds board before the regular season wraps up.

One team that saw a major reversal of fortune is the Los Angeles Lakers, who dropped from +3000 to +35000 following devastating injuries to Luka Doncic and Austin Reaves. The two guards could miss up to two months each, bringing an end to what had been a magical stretch for L.A.

📈 2026 NBA Finals odds over time

Here’s a visual representation of how the NBA championship has odds evolved since the offseason.

🔮 NBA Championship prediction

Oklahoma City has the cleanest runway to be the best team in 2026: an MVP-caliber engine in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander entering the heart of his prime, a two-way star wing in Jalen Williams, and a 7-footer in Chet Holmgren whose blend of rim protection, spacing, and feel supercharges modern schemes. That trio already drives elite half-court efficiency and a top-tier defense, and it’s backed by organizational continuity that reliably turns role players into playoff-useful pieces. Holmgren’s strength and timing appear to be fully NBA-hardened, unlocking more switching and fewer help-and-recover compromises, while SGA’s mid-range and foul-drawing remain matchup-proof in May and June.

Depth and optionality push the Thunder over the top. They can win big or small, play five-out without sacrificing rim protection, and toggle between pressure defense and conservative coverages depending on opponent. Crucially, they still have surplus picks and cap flexibility to plug the inevitable holes that show up in a long postseason, whether that’s a second unit scorer, another stretch big, or a specialist wing.

So, why did I decide to sprinkle half a unit on the Spurs in late February? Health. San Antonio was clicking at just the right time while Oklahoma City dealt with injuries to SGA, Holmgren, Jalen Williams, and Ajay Mitchell. That was a lot of star power riding the pine.

I added another half unit at the end of March as the Spurs moved to within 2.5 games of the Thunder on the strength of a dominant 13-1 stretch. Consider San Antonio my insurance policy.

💰 Sportsbook betting splits and insights

Highest ticket percentage
•    Nuggets 8.8%
•    Thunder 8.7%
•    Mavericks 8.2%
 
Highest handle percentage
•    Thunder 17.9%
•    Mavericks 16.3%
•    Lakers 13.3%
 
Biggest liability
•    Mavericks 
•    Lakers
•    Warriors

Data courtesy of BetMGM.

The Nuggets may not have the NBA’s best record, but they do have the ultimate weapon in Nikola Jokic. The three-time MVP is averaging a triple-double for the second consecutive season and gives Denver a puncher’s chance in any series. No other big man can match his skill set and versatility, making the Nuggets one of the league’s toughest outs when they get on a roll.

2026 NBA Championship opening odds

No team has overachieved more this season than the Pistons, who entered the 2025-26 campaign with distant +7000 odds.

Detroit shocked pundits by racing out to a 15-2 record thanks to a deep, athletic roster and the emergence of Cade Cunningham and Jalen Duren, both of whom were named All-Stars. Their growing chemistry is the secret sauce that could power Detroit to a deep postseason run.

NBA Championship trends

• Since the Warriors’ 2018 repeat, the NBA has seen seven different champions in seven years. This is the longest such streak since the late 1970s.

• 22 of the last 25 champions ranked in the Top 10 in Defensive Rating during the regular season.

• 23 of the last 25 champions were Top 5 in either Offensive or Defensive efficiency.

• Since 2019, nearly every champion has been led by a non-U.S. superstar or a team built on international depth.

🏀 NBA Finals winners since 2000

Odds courtesy of Sports Odds History.

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