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The New York Yankees finish a three-game series with the Miami Marlins looking to win their fifth straight game.
New York is 7-1, and the Yankees haven’t even hit their stride at the plate yet. Their pitching has been nearly bulletproof, however.
With an ace on the mound in a mismatch, my Marlins vs. Yankees predictions and MLB picks call for the Yankees to finish off the sweep with a cover at home.
Who will win Marlins vs Yankees today: Yankees -1.5 (-125)
Many elements from yesterday’s matchup carry over today. Max Meyer’s average exit velocity last season was among the worst for qualified starters, which is a big problem when you’re headed to Yankee Stadium.
The New York Yankees have been riding their pitching early this season. Miami scored seven runs in Saturday’s loss, which was just one more than the Yankees had given up in their first seven games combined. Even after giving up a seven-spot to the Miami Marlins, the Yankees’ staff ERA is just 1.77.
The Marlins had the same record as the Yankees entering the series, but Miami’s pitching has collapsed. The Marlins walked 11 Yankees on Friday and 10 on Saturday, giving up 17 runs to a NY offense that had scored just 24 in the first six games.
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COVERS INTEL:
Max Fried is throwing his four-seamer almost twice as often as last year and has struck out six batters on the pitch while allowing just one hit — a single— off the four-seamer.
Marlins vs Yankees Over/Under pick: Under 8.5 (-125)
Saturday was the day for the Marlins to get the Yankees. Ryan Weathers has now given up four of the seven runs allowed by Yankee starters this year. Even with his struggles, the starting rotation has turned in a 1.47 ERA.
Sunday’s starter, Max Fried, has not given up a run through two starts this season. He’s strung together 13 1/3 scoreless innings, striking out 10 and allowing just five hits.
Aaron Judge, Trent Grisham, and Austin Wells all reached a .200 batting average on Saturday, meaning that only three starters in the lineup are below the Mendoza line.
Marlins vs Yankees odds
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Moneyline: Miami +235 | New York -290
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Run line: Miami +1.5 (+115) | New York -1.5 (-135)
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Over/Under: Over 8.5 | Under 8.5
Marlins vs Yankees trend
The Marlins are 2-6 against the run line this season, tied for the second-worst record in baseball. Find more MLB betting trends for Marlins vs. Yankees.
How to watch Marlins vs Yankees and game info
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Location |
Yankee Stadium, Bronx, NY |
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Date |
Sunday, April 5, 2026 |
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First pitch |
1:35 p.m. ET |
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TV |
Marlins.TV, YES |
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Marlins starting pitcher |
Chris Paddack |
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Yankees starting pitcher |
Max Fried |
Marlins vs Yankees latest injuries
Marlins vs Yankees weather
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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