The start of March Madness is always exciting, not only because it signals the season of bracket busting, but because it also means the NBA Playoffs are almost here.
With the Milwaukee Bucks fizzling out, we now know with almost absolute certainty the 20 teams that will be participating in the play-in/playoffs this year. Still, there is a lot in flux as far as seeding goes. So, there is still plenty to keep an eye on as we enter the final stretch of the regular season.
I’m here to try and make sense of where every team ranks in the league hierarchy with four weeks remaining.
The Tankers
30. Indiana Pacers
29. Washington Wizards
28. Brooklyn Nets
27. Sacramento Kings
26. Utah Jazz
25. Chicago Bulls
24. Memphis Grizzlies
23. Dallas Mavericks
22. Milwaukee Bucks
Listen, when it comes to the bond between the reader and the writer, honesty is paramount. For you to truly believe what I’m putting on paper, you have to feel like I’m keeping it a buck with you. With this said, you can take this portion of the rankings with a grain of salt. Think the Utah Jazz are a tougher out than the Chicago Bulls? Or that the Sacramento Kings are the worst team in the NBA? That’s fine. I won’t argue with you there. The point is that all of these teams are not in the business of winning games and are basically a free win for whoever they are playing – that is, unless they are playing each other.
The Spunkiest Team In Basketball
21. New Orleans Pelicans
Unlike the other nine teams that are out of the play-in/playoff mix, the New Orleans Pelicans don’t own their first round pick in the 2026 NBA Draft. So, they have no incentive to tank. The Pelicans have used this opportunity to start building a winning culture – hence their place in their own special tier. Since January 22, the Pelicans are 14-10 with the 10th best offense and 14th best net rating. A lot of this is them taking advantage of The Tankers, but the Pelicans have also mustered impressive wins over the Los Angeles Clippers, San Antonio Spurs, Minnesota Timberwolves, and Toronto Raptors. Their front office is still as aimless and dysfunctional as they come, but you have to admit that they are playing some respectable ball of late.
A Playoff Berth Is A Win
20. Portland Trail Blazers
19. Philadelphia 76ers
18. Golden State Warriors
17. Charlotte Hornets
16. Phoenix Suns
15. Toronto Raptors
14. Los Angeles Clippers
Unfortunately, with only 16 playoff spots, four of these seven teams are going to go home disappointed. But for all these groups, even getting a chance to compete in the game’s second season should be a win for them. Injuries have made the Portland Trail Blazers, Philadelphia 76ers, and Golden State Warriors obvious members of this group (I personally trust Stephen Curry to be healthy during the playoffs more than Joel Embiid). The Charlotte Hornets and Phoenix Suns have been two of the best stories in the league this year, but both of them have started to lose steam in recent weeks (plus, the Hornets are going to need to win two play-in games to even make the postseason). The Toronto Raptors are the only team in this group who isn’t currently slated to appear in a play-in game. However, their below average offense (18th in offensive rating) and good, but not great, defense (seventh) isn’t exactly a recipe for postseason success. After failing to make the postseason in each of the last three seasons, Toronto should consider a playoff berth a step in the right direction. And while the Los Angeles Clippers have been spiraling (losers of their last three contests), they still have the most high-end firepower of any team in this group. Since their infamous 6-21 start, the Clippers have been 28-14 with the fourth best offense and eighth best net rating. They also have the best player of any team in this group (Kawhi Leonard, 5th in the NBA in Estimated Plus-Minus).
Solid Playoff Teams Without Real Title Equity
13. Houston Rockets
12. Miami Heat
11. Orlando Magic
10. Atlanta Hawks
This group is filled with teams that should be playing in a first round series, but don’t have the juice to do anything more than maybe win a playoff series. The Houston Rockets may have the most wins of any team in this group, but they play in the tougher conference and just have not been the same since Steven Adams went down with a season-ending ankle injury. The Miami Heat continue to win games in Heat ways (running more zone than any team in the league!). However, they don’t have enough offense or size/physicality to be a true threat, as we saw in their recent loss to the Orlando Magic. What will surprise a lot of people is the decision to put the Atlanta Hawks over the Orlando Magic in our power rankings, despite the latter being higher than the former in the standings. The Hawks are winners of eleven straight games (!!). That is tied for the third-longest streak of the year (all the other teams ahead of them are still yet to be listed on these power rankings). Most of these wins are against The Tankers, but they did just put the hurting on the Magic in a key home victory. What makes them so dangerous is how good their starting lineup is. When CJ McCollum, Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Dyson Daniels, Jalen Johnson, and Onyeka Okongwu share the floor together (456 non-garbage time possessions), the Hawks are outscoring teams by 31.1 points per 100 possessions. That is the highest mark of any five-man combination that has played at least 300 possessions this season (per Cleaning the Glass).
Puncher’s Chance At The Championship
9. Los Angeles Lakers
8. New York Knicks
7. Minnesota Timberwolves
6. Detroit Pistons
5. Denver Nuggets
These teams all have flaws, but they also have enough strengths to make a deep playoff run if everything breaks their way. Recently, I did a deep dive on the history of five-man lineups. Long story short, to win an NBA Championship, you need a regular season lineup featuring most/all of your best players that have played at least 300 possessions together and posted a +9 per 100. As of writing this, none of the Los Angeles Lakers, New York Knicks, or Minnesota Timberwolves have a lineup that fits this description. That’s why they are in the back half of this tier. But they still need to be in this group because Luka Doncic (LAL), Jalen Brunson (NYK), and Anthony Edwards (MIN) have all shown the ability to take over a series on their lonesome, and all of them have been to the conference finals as recently as the past two seasons. The Detroit Pistons have been faltering of late (5-5 in their last ten), but they still have a distinct identity, homecourt advantage through the first three rounds, and a five-man lineup they can count on (Cade Cunningham, Ausar Thompson, Duncan Robinson, Tobias Harris, and Jalen Duren are a +12.8 per 100).* The Denver Nuggets cannot seem to find a groove. Just yesterday, they dropped an unnecessary game to one of The Tankers (the Memphis Grizzlies). Still, they have the best player on the planet (Nikola Jokic), and when you have that, you always have the chance.
*The recent injury news regarding Cunningham has the chance to seriously derail the Pistons’ season. But until we know whether he will be missing any postseason basketball, we are going to keep them in this tier for now.
True Championship Contenders
4. Cleveland Cavaliers
3. San Antonio Spurs
2. Boston Celtics
1. Oklahoma City Thunder
Finally, the cream of the crop. Ricky O’Donnell has framed this season as “the Thunder vs. the field.” It’s still that way, but like he said during his midseason edition, the field is definitely catching up. The Cleveland Cavaliers haven’t really done anything to deserve their place in this tier, but they do have the second-most talented/well-balanced roster of any team in the East. Plus, they haven’t been able to have their core four healthy for very long. According to PBP Stats, when James Harden, Donovan Mitchell, Evan Mobley, and Jarrett Allen share the floor (35 minutes), Cleveland has +35.2 net rating. Pretty darn promising. Also, since they are in the weaker conference, their chances of making it to the NBA Finals are just inherently higher than teams like Denver and Minnesota. The San Antonio Spurs have incredible indicators, especially when their prodigious big man is on the floor. The only thing keeping them from being higher is the relative unknown with how their young core will perform in the playoffs (typical cop out, I know). The Boston Celtics have completely re-invented themselves, and now, they are doing a fantastic job of integrating Jayson Tatum back into the mix. They are 5-1 with Tatum in the lineup, and man, does he look way better than any human ten months removed from a torn Achilles ever should. The Thunder will remain the top dog until proven otherwise.
Read the full article here