More than any other major professional sport, baseball is greatly influenced by luck. One player hits the ball on the screws, and it travels 100 mph straight into the shortstop’s glove. A few minutes later, someone else cues the ball off the end of the bat, and it slowly rolls into empty space for a single.
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Life isn’t fair, and neither is baseball. But over time, the good breaks and the bad breaks tend to even out, and the truly skilled players rise above the rest. Here are a few players who are likely to see their fantasy baseball fortunes turn around, after being especially lucky or unlucky in 2025.
Positive regression candidates
Juan Soto, OF, New York Mets
As good as Soto was during his initial year in Queens, his Statcast data suggests that he could have been even better. Sure, the 27-year-old is unlikely to swipe another 38 bases, but he can make up for that drop by improving on a .263 average that was 19 points below his career mark. He’s rock solid as the No. 4 overall option in fantasy drafts.
Andrés Giménez, 2B/SS, Toronto Blue Jays
Among players with at least 350 plate appearances, only Tommy Edman had a larger gap than Giménez between their batting average (.210) and xBA (.252). Collecting base knocks is essential to the infielder’s fantasy value, as it gives him the necessary opportunity to accumulate steals. A career .253 hitter who logged 30-steal seasons in 2023 and 2024, Giménez is a strong bounceback candidate.
Luis García Jr., 2B, Washington Nationals
The combination of age, experience and positive regression potential makes García one of my favorite draft targets. The infielder logged large gaps between his actual and expected marks in xBA, xSLG and xwOBA. Heading into his age-26 season with six campaigns under his belt, García could post his first 20-20 season and improve on his career .266 average.
Ben Rice, C/1B, New York Yankees
Rice is quickly becoming a popular breakout candidate, as more fantasy managers realize that his 2025 expected stats dwarfed his actual marks. After recording a .499 SLG and a .557 xSLG that ranked eighth in baseball, Rice is especially due for a power uptick. He’s a top-five catcher option.
Salvador Pérez, C, Royals
This is a tough one for me, because I don’t feel great about investing in a soon-to-be 36-year-old catcher when the position is deeper than ever before. Still, it’s eye-popping that during a season in which Pérez produced 30 homers and 100 RBI, he logged the largest gap of any player between his SLG (.525) and xSLG (.608). Add in the fact that the outfield fences are moving in at his home park, and Pérez seems like a great candidate for another 30-homer campaign.
Marcus Semien, 2B, New York Mets
Despite logging a solid 20.2% line drive rate, Semien endured the fifth-lowest BABIP (.251) of any qualified hitter. Such is life for someone who plays half their games at pitcher-friendly Globe Life Field, where Semien produced a .617 OPS last season (.718 OPS on the road). He should enjoy better luck and at least a mild bounce-back season now that he is on the Mets.
Mookie Betts, SS, Los Angeles Dodgers
Despite playing at a hitter-friendly home park and logging a solid 21.1% line drive rate, Betts endured a .258 BABIP that was 41 points lower than his career mark. Add in the details of his early-season illness and weight loss, and the 33-year-old appears to be primed for a bounce-back year.
Negative regression candidates
Nick Kurtz, 1B, Athletics
Just 23 years old, Kurtz could show significant skills improvement in his first full major league season. He will need to make those strides in order to maintain the pace from his rookie year, as there were massive gaps between his real and expected stats. Kurtz is highly unlikely to match his .290 average if he also repeats his 30.9% strikeout rate. And even with a hitter-friendly home park by his side, he likely won’t enjoy another 30.8% HR/FB rate. Kurtz may not be a better option than fellow first basemen Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Pete Alonso, who each have similar ADPs.
Jacob Wilson, SS, Athletics
Wilson is in a similar spot to his teammate Kurtz. The youngster likely has a batting title in his future, but he may not be at that point yet, as last season his .277 xBA was much lower than his actual .311 mark. Wilson is similar to Luis Arráez in that he needs an elite batting average in order to have significant fantasy value. I still like Wilson as a mid-round pick, although I acknowledge the risk due to regression concerns.
Jordan Beck, OF, Colorado Rockies
It’s easy to get excited about Beck. He showed a diverse skill set when he produced 16 homers and 19 steals in his first full season, he plays half his games at Coors Field and playing time is readily available with the rebuilding Rockies. But there’s one problem — Beck may not be very good.
He strikes out often and doesn’t hit the ball especially hard. His .351 BABIP ranked third in baseball last year. Similar to Kurtz, the youngster will need to show improvements this year in order to offset expected regression.
Jeremy Peña, SS, Houston Astros
An improved per-game performance by Peña last season was more due to better luck than improved skill. His strikeout rate and average exit velocity were nearly identical to the previous year. His expected stats were only slightly better. There will be some pullback on his .345 BABIP, which will impact his numbers in most categories. Add in the fact that he is dealing with a broken finger, and Peña is quickly becoming someone whom I will avoid in drafts.
Harrison Bader, OF, San Francisco Giants
Some managers will see Bader as a deep-league sleeper. After all, the 31-year-old has 20-steal potential and is coming off a season in which he set career-best totals in plate appearances (501) and homers (17). Unfortunately, the veteran is squarely on my do-not-draft list. His strikeout rate jumped last season by more than 5% to 27.1%, and his .220 xBA was 57 points lower than his actual mark. There were similar gaps between his SLG and xSLG, and his xOBA and xwOBA. Add in the fact that Bader has joined a team with a home park that suppresses homers, and there are several reasons to expect the worst.
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