By the technical definition of a “rookie”, as outlined by Major League Baseball’s eligibility requirements, Nolan McLean enters 2026 as a rookie, in so far as he’s thrown fewer than 50 major league innings in his career (48 innings, to be exact). By way of his performance, composure, and talent level, McLean is anything but a rookie.
McLean’s rise from top prospect to top of the 2025 rotation was something to behold. The right-hander entered last season ranked No. 5 on the Amazin’ Avenue top prospects list (No. 6 on MLB Pipeline’s list), but he was ranked behind both Brandon Sproat (the consensus top pick on both lists) and Jonah Tong (No. 4 on Amazin’ Avenue, No. 5 on MLB Pipeline). A combination of injuries and poor performance ravaged the Mets’ rotation and became the clear weak spot on a collapsing club, making starting pitching an obvious area in need of a fix. While the team was clearly desperate for an injection of new talent and some hope, no one could have predicted that McLean would be the first man up at the start of the season.
McLean dominated from the jump, tearing through Double-A Binghamton with a 1.37 ERA and 30 strikeouts in 26 1/3 innings pitched. He was promoted to Triple-A in early May and didn’t skip a beat. In 87 1/3 innings for Syracuse, including 13 starts and three relief outings, he posted a 2.78 ERA with 97 strikeouts. As the season progressed, the calls grew louder for the Mets to bring him up to the majors, including from this site. McLean finally got promoted to make his big league debut in August, taking Frankie Montas’ spot in the rotation—Montas, remember him?
From there, the 24-year-old gave the Mets arguably their most electric start to a career from a starting pitcher this side of Jacob deGrom. For a rotation in need of stabilization, McLean became a force and captivated fans and analysts across the sport. He put forth a terrific debut performance against the Mariners, limiting Seattle to two hits while striking out eight over 5 1/3 frames. He picked up a win in his first four starts, something not even Tom Seaver or Dwight Gooden did with the franchise, and put up numbers few, if any, had put up, and he enjoyed a scintillating 1.37 ERA with 28 strikeouts across his first four starts.. He struck out seven over seven innings of two-run ball against Atlanta, and then followed that up with his most eye-popping start of his young career, hurling eight shutout frames at Citi Field against the Phillies in the middle of the team’s four-game sweep of their bitter rivals—perhaps the last time people would be forgiven for thinking the Mets could make the postseason.
Through six starts, he posted a 1.19 ERA and ended his eight-start run with an 11-strikeout performance in a win against the Cubs. He concluded his not-quite-rookie campaign a 2.06 ERA and a 2.97 FIP, with 57 strikeouts and 16 walks in 48 innings. His ERA was the fourth-best among starting pitchers from his August debut onward, behind Paul Skenes, Tarik Skubal, and Yoshinobu Yamamoto (how’s that for some good company?) His 30.3% K% was the ninth-best among starters during that stretch, his FIP was 11th best, and his 0.75 HR/9 was 12th best.
Across the board, he went toe-to-toe with the best in the sport and quickly took the mantle as the de facto ace. His numbers across his first eight starts compare quite favorably to Skenes, who put up a 2.14 ERA with 61 strikeouts over 46 1/3 innings. If you want to compare him to Matt Harvey’s terrific 10 starts in 2012, Harvey had McLean beat on strikeouts (70 to 57), but McLean bested him in ERA (2.06 to 2.73), ERA+ (196 to 140), K% (30.3 to 28.6), BB% (8.5 to 10.6) and bWAR (1.8 to 1.6). In his season review for McLean, Michael Drago called attention to his sweeper and his curveball, the latter of which generated a 50% whiff rate, along with his sinker as the right-hander’s most lethal weapons, and his overall pitch mix led to him making major league batters look quite foolish.
While McLean, Sproat (who was eventually traded for now-ace Freddy Peralta) and Jonah Tong all enjoyed some action in the majors, McLean was the one who was definitively viewed as a lock for the Mets’ 2026 rotation. His poise on the mound and his fearlessness should help him slot comfortably behind Peralta in the rotation. To add another feather in his cap at a young age, he was selected to represent Team USA in the World Baseball Classic, and he is slated to make the start against Team Italy in the final game of pool play on Tuesday. Because he remains a rookie, he enters the year as the consensus top prospect on the Amazin’ Avenue and MLB Pipeline list, and he is listed as the sixth-best prospect in all of baseball.
Probably because of his youth and his anticipated growing pains (which he never quite experienced last year), as well as teams having a more detailed scouting report on him following his breakout, the projection models are a bit reserved on his season outlook. ZiPS has the righty posting a 3.94 ERA and a 3.95 FIP in 144 innings pitched, with a 22.9% K% and a 9.2 K% in his 26 starts. His projected 1.9 fWAR ranks fourth among Mets’ starters, behind Peralta, David Peterson, and Clay Holmes. PECOTA similarly sees McLean throwing just 150 innings and posting a 100 DRA- with less than a 2 WARP. Baseball Reference, meanwhile, has McLean posting a 3.34 ERA with 88 strikeouts in 84 innings.
Projections aside, the Mets have high hopes for McLean in 2026 and beyond, and there’s every chance he could become the natural successor for the homegrown ace that was vacated with deGrom bolted for Texas back in 2022. Because he retained his rookie status, and because he’s already shown glimpses of greatness in the majors, there’s every possibility McLean could win NL Rookie of the Year and get Cy Young votes. At the very least, he could get votes for both awards, which would be a rare and exciting feat to behold.
There’s every reason to believe last year’s performance was far from an aberration. While it’s not entirely fair to expect that level of performance across a full 162-game schedule, McLean should figure to give the team a strong performance as he acclimates to the majors, and he should help stabilize a rotation that really struggled for large portions of the previous season. For a team with postseason, and even World Series aspirations, McLean remains one of the most exciting players to watch.
Read the full article here