NBA Championship Predictions: Outright Winner and Sleeper Picks Post All-Star Break

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The NBA All-Star Break is deceptive.

This is not midseason, but rather there is only a third of the season remaining. The playoff picture is very much in focus.

NBA championship odds already reflect that, but they may overvalue the Oklahoma City Thunder. My NBA picks tell you why the Celtics and the Timberwolves are viable alternatives.

NBA Championship odds

The post-All-Star break schedule can yield a genuine amount of absurdity as tanking takes hold and other teams coast into the postseason.

In a genuine way, the most telling stretch of the regular season is the six weeks following December 1. Everyone in the NBA is still playing competitively, and the season’s fatigue has not yet grabbed total hold.

Looking at the net ratings in those six weeks, two teams are well ahead of the pack: The Oklahoma City Thunder at +10.8 and the Boston Celtics at +10.0.

Betting on the Thunder is obviously the safe play, but those odds of just +130 are not rewarding enough for this thought process, especially since taking Oklahoma City’s series price in four straight rounds would likely create a rollover approach close to that +130.

But the Celtics are worth considering at +1200.

The talk of Jayson Tatum’s possible return should be ignored in this moment. Perhaps he does make a risky return, but making this bet because of that raises your risk profile. Instead, look at the Boston roster as it is known.

At his best, Jaylen Brown can match up with anyone over a series. Derrick White is one of the most all-around clutch players in the NBA. Adding Nikola Vucevic should help both on defense in the post and on the glass.

That may seem like a shorthanded group when facing deeper Eastern Conference teams like the Detroit Pistons, the New York Knicks or the Cleveland Cavaliers, but the Celtics’ net rating was 2.4 points better per 100 possessions than the Pistons’ in that six-week stretch following December 1. Some faith should be put into that.

NBA Championship prediction: Boston Celtics to win (+1200 at bet365)

NBA Championship sleeper pick

Full disclosure: Yours truly has Minnesota Timberwolves season tickets. No one would be more delighted by the Timberwolves winning the Western Conference (+1800). If they did, they would likely be favorites in the NBA Finals.

Look back at that same six-week stretch beginning on December 1. The three-highest net ratings are the Thunder (+10.8), the Celtics (+10.0) and the Pistons (+7.6). Detroit has the longest title odds of that group at +1400.

Only two other teams had net ratings higher than +4.5. The San Antonio Spurs (+5.5) are still as short as +1400 to win the Larry O’Brien Trophy.

But the Timberwolves (+5.8) are a lofty +3500. There is a disconnect there.

Minnesota has been better at season’s end than at the All-Star Break in each year of Chris Finch’s tenure, particularly the last two seasons. There is a reason the Timberwolves made the Western Conference Finals in each of the last two years.

Adding Ayo Dosunmu at the trade deadline may seem like a low-impact move, but Minnesota added a quality contributor to its bench without sacrificing any present pieces. Simply put, the Timberwolves got better.

Just know, if Minnesota goes on such a run for a third straight spring, yours truly will be telling you he told you so from inside Target Center.

NBA sleeper prediction: Minnesota Timberwolves to win (+3500 at bet365)

Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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