With the fresh fantasy baseball season approaching, it’s time to get you some tiered rankings from my Shuffle Up series. Use these for salary cap drafts, straight drafts, keeper decisions or merely a view of how the position ebbs and flows. Monday, we opened with the catcher position. Today’s assignment is first base.
The numbers are unscientific in nature and meant to reflect where talent clusters and drops off. Assume a 5×5 scoring system, as usual.
Additional positions will follow regularly for the next two weeks. I have removed all catcher-eligible players from the first base shuffle, since those players will be used at catcher for 99% of fantasy teams.
More Tiered Rankings
The Big Tickets
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$33 Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
Guerrero’s production has bounced all over the place through his quirky career, but I have no problem paying up for a three-year average of .293/.374/.485. And this is a guy who comes to play every night, missing just 18 games in the past six seasons. Maybe Guerrero will never become the superstar he was tabbed as a prospect — or the superstar he’s paid to be — but there’s something to be said for a bankable floor.
Kurtz has something to learn about left-handed pitching (.197/.261/.423), but the Athletics will let him play every day and figure it out. His pop was better at the cushy home park, but his average and OBP played on the road, too. Kurtz can probably trim the heavy strikeout rate, given his discerning eye (he rarely swings out of the zone) and lofty walk rate. Sophomore bets generally make you a little nervous, but Kurtz belongs in the second round.
Harper is going to be a plus offensive player until he retires, but staying on the field has become an issue — he’s averaged 129 games over the past five seasons. He’s picked up double-digit steals in four of the last five years, more proof that the SB column is usually about will over skill. Harper is worth considering in the third round but probably fits better in the fourth.
Legitimate Building Blocks
Occam’s Razor applies to the Devers case — he traded Fenway Park’s cozy dimensions for the roominess of Oracle Park, and the slash tells the story. Devers had a .296/.420/.556 line in his 39 games at Fenway, and a .234/.351/.474 downer in the 48 San Francisco games. To be fair, that OBP and slugging with the Giants still make Devers a plus hitter, but it turns him from a second-round fantasy asset to a fourth-round consideration. I’ll probably sit this one out.
It’s no fun to play fantasy baseball like an actuary, but it’s generally a wise idea. Freeman’s bags are gone, his bat speed is in a scary decline and he’s 36. Be realistic. I’d like to trend younger with my roster construction.
The will-over-skill steals theme especially apples to Naylor, who somehow swiped 30 bags in 32 attempts despite a sprint score in the bottom 3%. A ridiculous 19 of those steals came after the move to Seattle, in just 54 games. The Mariners play in a big ballpark and want to run aggressively, so I can sign off on Naylor keeping maybe half of those 30 overall bags. Focus the bid price more on his bat, with a three-year slash of .280/.341/.468.
Talk Them Up, Talk Them Down
Burleson figured out lefties in 2025 and no longer has any worry about being platooned. His contact skills are excellent and he still might grow into a 25-30 homer guy. He’s one of the quiet values I want you to focus on at the table.
The Brewers have become what the Rays used to be, the small-market club that seems to be smarter than everyone else. Thus, when Vaughn joined the Crew last year and immediately stepped up his play, it felt like another Milwaukee steal. I like that betting on Vaughn is betting on pedigree — he was the third overall pick in the 2019 draft. He’ll probably start the year slotted fifth in this lineup, behind a host of OBP machines. Circle this value, too.
Some Plausible Upside
Caglianone made plenty of contact as a rookie; it just wasn’t emphatic contact — his hard-hit profile is depressing to look at. But don’t take his slash line at face value, as the secondary data suggests his batting average was 80 points unlucky and his slugging should have been 136 points higher. The development curve is different for everyone. While we have to accept that Caglianone might not even make the Royals out of camp, there’s still plenty of profit potential here, too.
You need to be in a deeper league to value Clement, whose main value is the safety of his job and the consistent batting average. You’re looking at 8-12 homers and 8-12 steals here, and the Toronto lineup is deep enough to keep Clement in the bottom third. I’ll admit a soft spot for Clement because he’s a throwback, a contact-heavy approach at the plate and a versatile profile in the field. Yahoo managers can use Clement at all four infield spots.
Bargain Bin
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