We are straight smack in the middle of some of the most exciting parts of the offseason: the release of different national prospect writer’s top 100 lists. It lends itself to some excitement because it is a glimpse of what the future may hold, not only for those teams that are contenders for a World Series, but also for teams that are eager for the future to arrive a bit earlier. Once many of these lists start to arrive, a consensus starts to form where we can see who most people believe is leading the pack for the Phillies.
Aidan Miller has become the team’s top prospect. Where Andrew Painter held that title for a few years, his performance last season, one that was frankly disappointing, couple with Miller’s emergence has led to a swap in their positions. Miller is the top dog while Painter is the clear second banana in terms of how they rank in the eyes of prospect writers.
It has led to a little bit of a frothing at the mouth for Miller to join the team as soon as possible from members of the fanbase. The writeups from the authors don’t help. They’re glowing in their reports of the kid, but they are also dangerous in raising the expectations of what Miller might turn out to be (bolding in the reports is mine).
From Keith Law:
Even when he was struggling, he didn’t come out of his approach, with strong swing decisions across the board that will probably lead to a high OBP this year when he’s in Triple A, where walk rates are higher anyway due to ABS. I don’t think he needs a full year at that level before he’s ready for the majors, just needing to refine some of his pitch recognition, and there’s a good chance that by July 1 he’ll be the best choice for shortstop at Citizens Bank Park.
From Baseball Prospectus:
He’s trending towards being average or better at everything, and if one of those “or betters” turns into a real carrying ability—the power is the obvious possibility given his frame and occasional ability to launch one spectacularly—there’s star upside with the stick. With the glove, he continues to fall into the “maybe a shortstop, maybe not” bucket, although every year that he plays exclusively there and does so with minimum competence gives more hope.
From Fangraphs:
The Phillies have only ever played Miller at shortstop since signing him, and it’s the position at which he’d be the most valuable, but with Trea Turner entrenched ahead of him, it might behoove them to expand his defensive horizons in 2026 in case, be it via trade or injury, it turns out he’s needed at either second or third. Should he turn out to be a more comfortable, consistent defender at either of those positions, then a permanent move should be considered. Miller is going to be good enough at shortstop to play there, but only just so. If he can be a plus glove at second or third, that might be a better long-term fit.
It’s the Law article that has me believing we should pump the brakes a bit on Miller. Saying that he’ll be the best choice for shortstop by July 1 for the Phillies, choosing him over Trea Turner is a bit much at this point. Turner had maybe his best season for the Phillies last year, giving them a season where he registered near 7 WAR thanks to a tremendous uptick in defense to go with offense that is 20% better than league average. That is a player that should be getting MVP votes, one that isn’t going to be hard to displace. Suggesting that Miller would be a better choice at that position is a rather bold statement to make.
Placing expectations of those kinds of proportions on Miller are a bit unfair. His breaking camp with the team out of spring training would probably mean a few things, good and bad. The good part would mean that Miller is so impressive in how he is playing during spring that the team would have no choice but to find some kind of starting role for him. It happens with rookies, where their spring training sets them up for their earning a starting job for Opening Day. But with Miller, you’d probably want him to start if he gets to the majors and right now, barring injury, there just is no spot for him.
That brings us to the bad. If Miller were to win a spot, that probably means an injury happens. No matter which player it would be – Alec Bohm, Bryson Stott or Turner – having an injury to a starter is a bad thing. Having Miller up in the majors would be great insurance for that injury, something the Phillies haven’t had in quite a while. Yet no one should be wishing for an injury to befall a starter.
The biggest issue is making sure to temper those expectations for Aidan Miller no matter where he begins the season. He’s definitely close to making an impact on the major league team, possibly as soon as this season. Expecting him to come in and perform at an All-Star level, or maybe even something more, would be putting too much weight on his talents. It’s completely fine to believe that in time he’ll get to that level. All of these positive sounding scouting reports should have the fanbase excited that for the first time in a long time, the player development system will have produced a player that can reach lofty heights. But maybe for 2026, let’s keep those expectations in check, just a little bit.
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