Introduction
With just over two weeks left until pitchers and catchers report to spring training and less than a month remaining until the first spring training games, the offseason has entered its final stretch. As such, we’re fully into the projection phase of the offseason, which includes minor league prospects. We just got a pretty significant update on the sport’s young stars last Wednesday when Baseball America released its Top 100 paywalled list of the best prospects and MLB Pipeline followed suit two days later. For the second year in a row, the lone Diamondback on the Pipeline list is Ryan Waldschmidt while Baseball America deigned to include Kayson Cunningham at number 97. While prospect evaluations and rankings are inherently subjective, it’s fascinating to see how external evaluators view Arizona’s minor leaguers and there’s genuine value to be had if any ranked prospect wins end-of-the-year award.
Ryan Waldschmidt
The sole Arizona representative on the MLB Pipeline list for the second straight year, Waldschmidt continues to impress less than two years after being drafted with Corbin Carroll’s prospect promotion incentive (PPI) pick out of Kentucky. Across two minor league levels last year, the native Floridian posted a .289/.419/.473 slash line while walking nearly as often as he struck out (106 strikeouts and 96 walks in 601 plate appearances). For context, an 18% strikeout rate would place Waldschmidt among the likes of Francisco Lindor and Bobby Witt Jr from last season. I sincerely doubt he’d be able to maintain that kind of performance in the majors and FanGraphs specifically calls out his strikeout proclivity as a limit on his ceiling. But even with that caveat, both FanGraphs and MLB Pipeline project him out as a middle-of-the-order batter who could ably hold down a corner outfield position or even center if needed. That kind of profile makes him a dark horse candidate for securing a spot on the Opening Day roster out of Spring Training given the Lourdes Gurriel Jr-sized hole the team currently has in left field.
Kayson Cunningham
A newcomer to the franchise after being selected with the 18th overall pick in last summer’s draft, Cunningham was viewed as a well-developed high schooler who fit the team’s preference for undersized up-the-middle talents. He had a relatively rough introduction to pro ball with a .255/.308/.277 slash line in a couple weeks of play at Low-A Visalia while getting some pretty poor reviews on his fielding where the game seemed to be too quick for him at times. He’ll need to hit since he’s not projected for much power – likely a result from his relatively slight 5’10” frame that might fill out a little as he ages into his 20s but will likely still be somewhat undersized for a big leaguer. As it stands, he’s listed as a shortstop by ESPN and that’s where he spent his time during his first cameo with Visalia, but he’ll need to make some significant strides with his footwork and reads to stick there. Otherwise, he’ll end up at second base where his reads and footwork won’t be nearly as important. Overall, we’re looking at a player that has a much longer developmental road ahead of him than you might expect for a first-rounder, but there’s still an old-fashioned leadoff hitter who could hit .300 and steal 30 bases lurking at the end of that road.
Tommy Troy
I’ll be honest, I was pretty surprised to see Troy drop off MLB Pipeline’s Top 100 after appearing at #74 there just two years ago and still hanging on at #96 for Baseball Prospectus last year. In the interim, all the first-rounder has done is hit: across two levels last year, he combined for a .289/.382/.451 slash line while also swiping 24 bases on the year. Admittedly, some of that damage came while he was with Reno in the inflated offensive environment that the Pacific Coast League can represent and he didn’t hit a ton of homers even in that inflated environment. There are also some questions on where he’ll play too as he spent significant time at second and centerfield raising the possibility of a utility role rather than a single defensive position. Even still, the combination of hit tool and speed means that Troy could easily morph himself into a solid big league contributor even if he doesn’t become a bonafide star.
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