The Orioles have captured a Polar Bear. After missing out on their bid to land free agent slugger Kyle Schwarber on Tuesday, the O’s turned their attention to the next best bopper on the open market on Wednesday — agreeing to a five-year, $155 million contract with former Mets’ first baseman Pete Alonso.
Alonso becomes the second Mets’ star to leave in as many days after Edwin Díaz inked a three-year, $69 million pact with the Dodgers on Tuesday evening.
The agreement — which is still pending a physical — does not include any opt-outs or deferred money according to Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com.
Last offseason, the 31-year-old slugger hit the free agent market for the first time, hoping to land a highly lucrative multi-year deal. He was coming off of a down year though in which he posted a career-worst .788 OPS and was also tied to draft pick compensation after the Mets extended him a qualifying offer. He languished on the free agent market for months before ultimately re-signing with the Mets on a modest two-year, $54 million deal with an opt-out after the 2025 season.
Whether or not that experience gave Alonso any additional motivation heading into the 2025 season can be debated. What can’t be debated is that he was an absolute monster at the dish. He slashed .272/.347/.524 with 38 home runs and 126 RBI in a career-high 709 plate appearances, making his fourth consecutive National League All-Star squad and winning his first Silver Slugger award while finishing 11th in the MVP voting.
Naturally, after a season like that, Alonso opted out of the final year of his contract with the Mets and chose to hit the free agent market once again.
Alonso took his marketing campaign into his own hands this week, choosing to attend the winter meetings himself to meet with interested teams. Apparently, his meeting with the Orioles went well. They had offered a five-year, $150 million contract to Schwarber on Tuesday before he ultimately re-signed with the Phillies. The Orioles then took that money and offered it to Alonso to add some much-needed right-handed thump to the middle of their lineup.
Joel Sherman of the New York Post confirmed afterwards that the Mets never made a formal offer to Alonso this offseason after they heard rumblings of where his market was headed. He notes that they were reluctant to give him a contract of more than three years.
Fantasy Impact
So how is Alonso’s fantasy value impacted by the move from the Mets to the Orioles? Let’s take a look.
Alonso has such prestigious power that no ballpark can hold him. He ranked in the 96th percentile or better in average exit velocity, hard-hit rate and barrel rate in 2025. The change in venue shouldn’t cause any sort of negative impact — especially since the Orioles moved their left field wall back in and lowered its height before the 2025 season.
Citi Field still ranks as a much better park for right-handed power than Oriole Park at Camden Yards does, that doesn’t take into account the natural raw power that Alonso possesses. He slugged 38 home runs during the 2025 season. His expected home runs by ballpark pegged him for just 36 at Citi Field, though he would have had an expected 45 in Baltimore. He should be just fine.
The only place that I’m anticipating a potential change in his projection for the 2026 season is in the RBI department. Alonso has always had a knack for driving in runs, having eclipsed the 100-RBI plateau in four of his six full seasons and never finishing with fewer than 88. There’s something to be said about having Juan Soto and his league-leading .396 on-base percentage hitting ahead of you though — along with Francisco Lindor as a table-setter atop the lineup. Jackson Holliday and Jordan Westburg posted OBP’s of .314 and .313 in 2025 while Gunnar Henderson checked in at .349. There’s always a chance that those young players take major leaps forward in 2026, but it’s not a bold take to say that Alonso is likely to have fewer RBI opportunities presented to him in his first season with the Orioles.
You also never know how a player is going to adjust to new surroundings. Alonso has spent his entire career with the Mets and is coming off of a season in which he had extra motivation to produce at the plate after a miserable experience on the free agent market following the 2024 season. We have seen plenty of players over the years struggle in their first season with a new club or see their production tail off a bit after landing such a massive contract, as the pressure to perform to get that deal has been removed. That’s not to say that I expect either of those things to happen to Alonso in 2026, it’s just something that fantasy managers should keep in mind.
Prior to this news, Alonso was coming off of draft boards on average at pick 28, making him the third first baseman off the board behind only Nick Kurtz and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. I anticipate that his draft stock will stay pretty static, as this move really doesn’t change much for him overall.
I would expect a regression in batting average after hitting a career-best .272 in 2025 partially influenced by a career-high .305 BABIP. You’re not drafting Alonso for his batting average though, you’re drafting him because he’s one of the safest and most secure power options in the game. He should have no problem once again clubbing around 40 home runs and driving in at least 100 runs. He only provides three categories of production, but those three categories are so good and reliable that it makes him worthy of a pick at the end of the second or beginning of the third round in fantasy baseball drafts.
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