By the time the final buzzer sounds on Friday night, we will know the eight teams advancing to the quarterfinals of the NBA Cup, the bracket-style knockout round stage of the tournament.
While we already know a couple of the final eight (the Toronto Raptors and Los Angeles Lakers), the final six spots — four division winners plus one wild card in each conference — will be decided on Friday. Here are four must-watch games that will go a long way to determining who advances and starts playing for the size of their bonus check and a trip to Las Vegas.
Orlando at Detroit
The math is pretty simple here: Win and you’re in. Whichever team wins this game advances to the quarterfinals and wins East Group B. If Detroit loses, it would need a lot of help to advance as the wild card. However, if Orlando loses a close game and doesn’t ding its +61 point differential too much, it very likely would advance to the quarterfinals as a wild card.
Milwaukee at New York
If the Knicks win, they advance as the winners of East Group C, but if they lose, they are out. With a New York victory, both teams would be 3-1, but the Knicks would advance because they won the head-to-head matchup. If Milwaukee wins, Miami wins the group at 3-1 (the Heat do not play Friday), and the Knicks are eliminated — and if Milwaukee wins in a blowout, the Bucks become a long shot to advance as the wild card, but they need a lot of help.
Even if the Knicks win, Miami has a chance to advance as the Wild Card with its +49 point differential. However, the Heat would need some help (depending on the point differential of the other 3-1 teams, the Heat would need Orlando to lose by more than 12 and Cleveland to lose or at least beat Atlanta by less than 16).
Phoenix at Oklahoma City
Another win-and-you’re-in scenario. Whichever team wins this game will be 4-0 in group play and will advance to the quarterfinals. With Oklahoma City entering the game +71 in point differential for NBA Cup games and Phoenix at +35, the loser of this game has a very good chance to advance as the wild card (but if the Suns lose they need it to be close). Also of note, Oklahoma City — which made it to the finals of the NBA Cup in Las Vegas last year — will get Jalen Williams back for this game.
San Antonio at Denver
It’s another win-and-you’re-in scenario, but this game is far more influenced by injuries than the others. No Victor Wembanyama for San Antonio, which makes matching up with Nikola Jokic a challenge and puts a lot on Luke Kornet’s plate. Denver is dealing with injury issues itself, down two starters (Christian Braun and Aaron Gordon), and is now asking a lot more of Peyton Watson. The loser of this game could advance as the wild card if it’s a close game and OKC blows out Phoenix, and Memphis doesn’t blow out the Clippers.
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