Part of the process of crafting a fantasy basketball team, whether it’s in a snake draft or a salary draft, is finding positive value. Can you unearth a potential “diamond in the rough,” or pay a lower cost for an elite talent than expected? Doing so can make all the difference between winning a league and finishing out of the money.
However, in addition to seeking those players, fantasy managers need to identify players who should probably be left alone based on their average draft positions. Below is a list of ten players who should not be drafted at their current ADPs, beginning with a player who’s led the NBA in rebounding three straight years.
ADP data credit: Hashtag Basketball
NBA: Minnesota Timberwolves-Media Day
Fantasy Basketball Draft Prep Guide: 2025-26 rankings, strategy, sleepers, mock draft results, and more
Your one-stop-shop for Rotoworld’s fantasy basketball draft coverage.
1. C Domantas Sabonis, Sacramento Kings
Yahoo! ADP (as of October 2): 10.9
Sabonis’ production isn’t up for debate. However, his ADP as of October 2 was a bit too high. Last season, he appeared in 70 games, averaging 19.1 points, 13.9 rebounds, 6.0 assists, 0.7 steals and 0.9 three-pointers. While Sabonis’ rebounding and scoring output held steady compared to his 2023-24 production, the assists decreased by more than two per game. The Kings added DeMar DeRozan last offseason, but that wasn’t the most problematic roster change.
Sacramento traded point guard De’Aaron Fox to San Antonio just before the February deadline, adding Zach LaVine as part of the multi-team deal. From February 6 onward, Sabonis averaged 16.0 points, 13.1 rebounds, 5.3 assists, 0.8 steals and 0.5 three-pointers per game. It’s possible that the Kings addressing the point guard position by adding Dennis Schröder helps, but he’s another playmaker who needs to have the ball in his hands. That may negatively impact Sabonis’ assist value and scoring opportunities.
2. PF/C Paolo Banchero, Orlando Magic
Yahoo! ADP: 16.9
Many expect Banchero to be a breakout player this season after recording career-highs in points, rebounds and three-pointers in 46 games played in 2024-25. However, expecting second-round value from the Magic forward may be a bit ambitious, given Banchero’s fantasy history. He’s yet to produce a top-100 season in either per-game value or totals, and the same can be said of his per-36 fantasy numbers according to Basketball Monster. Can Banchero produce a top-100 season? Given his talent and the changes made to the Magic roster, absolutely. However, expecting a top-20 season, which is what his current ADP implies, is a bit much.
3. SF/PF LeBron James, Los Angeles Lakers
Yahoo! ADP: 18.3
There’s no denying James’ greatness, and for him to be as effective as he was last season was nothing short of remarkable. That said, he’ll turn 41 in December, which may result in more injury management measures being taken despite the Western Conference being loaded. James has played at least 70 games each of the last two seasons, the first time he’s done this since his final three seasons in Cleveland. In 2018-19, James was limited to 55 games played. LeBron did finish last season as a top-20 player, exceeding his Yahoo! ADP of 24.5. Expecting similar production, especially with the Lakers entering their “Luka Dončić era,” may prove to be unrealistic.
4. PG/SG De’Aaron Fox, San Antonio Spurs
Yahoo! ADP: 26.8
Fox’s first full season in San Antonio has already gotten off to an inauspicious start, as he’ll likely miss the beginning of the regular season with a hamstring injury. Also of concern is the potential production, especially with a healthy Victor Wembanyama set to command touches after missing the post-All-Star break portion of last season due to injury. In 17 games for the Spurs last season, Fox averaged 19.7 points, 4.3 rebounds, 6.8 assists, 1.5 steals and 1.5 three-pointers. While the rebounds took a slight hit and the assists increased compared to his pre-trade numbers in Sacramento, Fox’s scoring decreased by more than five points per game. To approach top-25 value as some expect him to, Fox will need to boost those numbers as part of a lineup that will be more talented (and healthier) than it was last season.
5. SG/SF Jaylen Brown, Boston Celtics
Yahoo! ADP: 30.5
Brown’s preseason fantasy value has been boosted by Jayson Tatum being sidelined by a ruptured Achilles tendon and the Celtics losing multiple rotation players by trade or free agency. The roster changes set Brown up to be a more productive player, but this also means opposing defenses will pay even more attention to him defensively. Brown, who underwent knee surgery during the offseason, has just two top-50 fantasy seasons to his credit. And the early ADP does not take into account the possibility of the occasional rest day, especially if the Celtics aren’t a factor in the East.
NBA: Atlanta Hawks at Milwaukee Bucks
Fantasy Basketball Forwards 2025-26: Top 50 rankings, season outlooks, key stats
Giannis Antetokounmpo and Anthony Davis lead the way in our forward rankings while phenom rookie Cooper Flagg joins the fold.
6. C Ivica Zubac, LA Clippers
Yahoo! ADP: 36.2
Zubac enjoyed the best season of his NBA career in 2024-25, posting career-best averages in points, rebounds, assists and steals. However, expecting the 7-footer to approach top-30 value for a second straight season is a bit much, especially with the additions the Clippers made during the offseason. The two most impactful moves concerning Zubac were the signings of John Collins, who will likely start at the four, and Brook Lopez to fill the backup center role. Zubac played 32.8 minutes per game, the first time his average as surpassed 30 minutes. It would be unsurprising if his playing time dipped under 30 in 2025-26, thus lowering Zubac’s fantasy ceiling.
7. SG/SF Josh Hart, New York Knicks
Yahoo! ADP: 49.8
Hart was likely a league-winning player for many managers who selected him in drafts ahead of the 2024-25 season, as he was nearly a top-25 player in per-game value and nearly top-10 in totals. However, that was under Tom Thibodeau, who was more than willing to have his best players log heavy minutes. Hart moving to the bench during the Eastern Conference Finals may have been a harbinger of what’s to come, especially with Mitchell Robinson being healthy. Add in a new head coach in Mike Brown, and Hart’s fantasy ceiling may be lower than many managers believe it to be. Also, he underwent surgery on his right index finger in July and aggravated the injury during an offseason workout. Hopefully, that won’t be a serious issue during the regular season, but the finger injury is something else for fantasy managers to consider when evaluating Hart.
8. SG/SF RJ Barrett, Toronto Raptors
Yahoo! ADP: 77.4
Based on his early ADP numbers, there’s no shortage of managers who believe Barrett may have a top-75 season in him. Based on Toronto’s roster and Barrett’s fantasy history, those expectations are unrealistic. Barrett has yet to finish a season ranked inside the top-150 in per-game value, and he has one such season in roto (2020-21). As for the roster, the Raptors also have Immanuel Quickley and Scottie Barnes healthy, not to mention Brandon Ingram, who’s fully recovered from the ankle injury that limited him to 18 games last season (all with the Pelicans). Given the number of players who will command touches within the Raptors system, Barrett’s ADP is too high at this point in the preseason.
9. C Kel’el Ware, Miami Heat
Yahoo! ADP: 83.7
Ware had a productive rookie campaign, finishing sixth in Rookie of the Year voting and averaging 9.3 points, 7.4 rebounds, 0.9 assists, 0.6 steals and 1.1 blocked shots per game. After moving into the starting lineup in January, he averaged 10.7 points, 9.7 rebounds, 1.2 assists, 0.7 steals and 1.2 blocks in 27.8 minutes while shooting 54.4 percent from the field. However, Ware will have to earn the right to remain in the starting lineup, and Miami’s lack of proven bigs behind Bam Adebayo could result in the Heat staggering Ware and Adebayo’s minutes more than they did down the stretch last season. Is a top-100 season possible? Absolutely. But betting on Ware to finish safely within that threshold is a serious roll of the dice.
10. PG/SG Keyonte George, Utah Jazz
Yahoo! ADP: 113.0
George recorded improved averages in points, rebounds, assists, steals and three-pointers last season, which was his second in the NBA. However, he was moved to the bench in favor of then-rookie Isaiah Collier, who offered more as a distributor and defender, in late January. Collier may not have done enough to claim the starting point guard job as his own, as evidenced by Utah’s decision to use one of its first-round picks on former Florida guard Walter Clayton Jr. Unless he’s somehow out of the rotation completely, which should not happen, Expecting George to approach top-100 value with Utah’s current logjam at the point guard position is overly optimistic.
Read the full article here