It was hard to watch. First Boston’s Jayson Tatum, then, on the NBA’s biggest stage, Tyrese Haliburton of Indiana.
The last two Eastern Conference champions head into this season without their All-NBA stars and anchors of their team’s offense. Tatum tore his Achilles in the second round against the Knicks, and Haliburton famously tore his Achilles early in Game 7 of the NBA Finals. Both are expected to miss this season (although Tatum is leaving the door open to a late-season return).
In the wake of those absences, the preseason focus has been about the East being “wide open,” with discussions about who can step into the void. But what about Indiana and Boston this season? Can this be more than a gap year for them? Let’s break it down.
Boston Celtics
Changes were coming to the Celtics’ roster before Tatum took a wrong step against the Knicks. The dreaded second apron and repeater tax were already coming for them, but the injury opened the door for management to be aggressive in trimming salary: Jrue Holiday is in Portland, Kristaps Porzingis is in Atlanta, Al Horford is in Golden State, and Luke Kornet is in San Antonio. The result is the Celtics’ payroll is below $200 million (but still about $4 million over the first luxury tax apron).
Boston still has plenty of talent: Finals MVP and All-Star Jaylen Brown will become the head of the snake on offense, and they still have Derrick White and Payton Pritchard. White, in particular, is going to have a much larger role and be asked to do more than at any point since he was Mr. Everything for the Colorado Buffaloes. He is going to get a lot of the pick-and-roll opportunities that Tatum has usually absorbed.
The hard questions are in the frontcourt, where the starters are likely to be Sam Hauser and Neemias Queta (who had a great EuroBasket), with Chris Boucher behind them.
Joe Mazzulla is going to have these Celtics playing faster and still launching a historic amount of 3-pointers, and that is going to get them wins. This is not a bad team — Vegas projects a team around .500 — but not a contender. Certainly a step back from where Boston was, as should be expected.
The spin out of Boston will be that this is a year for players to grow and evolve in new roles, and then, when Tatum returns — whether late this season or next — they will be better for the experience. That’s a nice talking point, but the guys getting experience are role players, not stars. New owner Bill Chisholm said he would do what it takes, spend what it takes for this team to win. That test starts next summer when Boston needs to restock the roster to contend.
For now, Boston looks like a play-in team in the East.
Indiana Pacers
Not only is Haliburton out for the season, but ownership decided to try to get Myles Turner to take a discount on his next deal, and now he is in Milwaukee. That’s two of the top three players — including the critical engine that made the Pacers’ up-tempo style work in Haliburton — out for the season.
Anyone who watched the Pacers in their limited time without Haliburton last season grasps what’s coming: Good players, well coached, but not great defensively and without the offensive spark needed to win consistently in the NBA.
Pascal Siakam becomes the focal point of the offense, and he should put up numbers. He is surrounded by guys who were good role players a season ago but will be asked to do a lot more now: Andrew Nembhard at the point, Bennedict Mathurin, Aaron Nesmith, T.J. McConnell, Ben Sheppard, Obi Toppin, Jay Huff and more.
Some guys will step up, and if you told me Nembhard wins Most Improved Player, I wouldn’t be shocked (he looked good as the backup point guard last season). However, it’s a lot to ask across the board. This looks more like a team struggling to make the back end of the play-in — even in this East — more than a nightly threat.
A year from now, when Haliburton returns, the show returns and things get interesting. For now, it’s a season about growth for role players.
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