A year ago at this time, I projected the Indiana Pacers to be the No. 7 seed in the East, in a tier with teams seeded 5-8. Maybe they had an outside chance of making the top four if Philadelphia fell apart (which certainly happened). I projected the Pacers losing in the first round of the playoffs.
Obviously, I was wrong. Indiana finished as the 50-win No. 4 seed and made a playoff run all the way to Game 7 of the NBA Finals.
It begs the question: Which teams can be this season’s Indiana? Here are three.
(Note: All these teams are from the Eastern Conference. I don’t think an “I didn’t see that coming” run can happen in the West. Who is coming out of nowhere in the West? Not championship teams Oklahoma City and Denver, not Houston with superstar Kevin Durant, not the Lakers with superstars (plural) LeBron James and Luka Doncic. Not Anthony Edwards and Minnesota, which has made the conference finals in back-to-back years. Any surprises come from the East.)
Orlando Magic
This is the trendy pick of a team going to make a giant leap. With good reason.
Orlando was the No. 7 seed in the East a season ago despite stars Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner missing considerable time with matching oblique injuries. Banchero is an All-NBA level player who averaged 29.5 points and 7.5 rebounds a game last season, while Wagner averaged 24.2 points and 5.7 rebounds a game and this summer led Germany to the EuroBasket title (alongside the Kings’ Dennis Schroder).
What makes Orlando such a postseason threat is its defense, which was ranked second in the NBA last season and is led by lockdown players such as guard Jalen Suggs and big man Jonathan Isaac. This team plays D on a string. That should not change.
What Orlando needed to take the next step was shooting — to space the floor for Banchero and Wagner — and they got it with the addition of Desmond Bane, a career 41% from 3-point range who also can create his own shot and is a solid defender. The team also needed point guard depth and found that in the form of Tyus Jones. The offense is ready to take the next step.
Defense wins championships, and that cliche is why the Magic are a team that could jump from the No. 7 seed a year ago to the NBA Finals.
Atlanta Hawks
Atlanta has built the best roster it has ever had around Trae Young, entering his eighth NBA season. More importantly, this roster is designed to fit around Young’s skill set.
The Hawks front office didn’t just fill holes this summer, it found great fits. Atlanta needed a defensive rim protector in the paint who also could be a pick-and-pop partner for Young and found one in Kristaps Porzingis. They needed defense and shooting on the wing and got that with Nickeil Alexander-Walker (plus more shooting off the bench with the addition of Luke Kennard).
However, the biggest addition is the return of a healthy Jalen Johnson, who was averaging 18.9 points and 10 rebounds a game last season before an injury ended his season early. Zaccharie Risacher found his footing at the end of last season and is poised to make a leap this season.
All of that not only adds talent to the Hawks, but it also adds talent that fits perfectly with Young’s game, which has matured over the past couple of seasons. There are front office personnel around the league convinced you can’t build a genuine title contender around Trae Young because of his defense and shot selections. Atlanta has a roster that could prove that wrong — on paper. If this team comes together and stays healthy, a run from the No. 8 seed a year ago to the Finals is not out of the question.
Detroit Pistons
Last season, the Pistons more than tripled their win total from two years ago — do they have another leap in them?
Like Indiana heading into last season, Detroit is the team projected by most to finish somewhere between fifth and seventh, but with real potential on the roster to surprise (especially in a down East this season). They showed last season in the playoffs that they are real — they fell to the Knicks in the first round but played respectably in that series.
Cade Cunningham should put together another All-NBA level season — 26.1 points, 9.1 assists, 6.1 rebounds a game — but the talent around him needs to step up. Jaden Ivey was having a breakout year, averaging 17.6 points a game, until a broken fibula on Jan. 1 ended his season after 30 games. Jalen Duren averaged 11.8 points and 10 rebounds a game last season and needs to take a step forward on both ends of the court.
The biggest challenge will be replacing Malik Beasley. That falls to former Michigan teammates Caris LeVert and Duncan Robinson, both of whom signed this summer and will be asked to step into a larger role.
This roster is proven to be good. Is it good enough as is? If the front office makes a bold move during the season — speculation about a Lauri Markkanen trade is out there — it could vault this team into the upper echelon of the East.
Detroit is a longer shot than Orlando or Atlanta to make a deep playoff run, but count them out at your own risk.
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