Max Verstappen predicted in Hungary that he wouldn’t win another Formula 1 race this season, but in the three grands prix after his proclamation, he has won two and whispers of a title fight have returned.
Following convincing victories in Monza and Baku, one of the most asked questions now is – can Verstappen actually challenge McLaren for the 2025 drivers’ title?
The PACETEQ graph at the bottom of this article shows that Verstappen has been the fastest driver, race pace-wise, twice in recent weeks – something that had only happened at Suzuka, Imola and Jeddah before, although Verstappen failed to win in Saudi Arabia due to a penalty.
The recent resurgence is attributed by team members to several factors. First, Red Bull’s approach has changed somewhat, with less blind reliance on data and more emphasis on driver feedback. Second, Verstappen says knowledge about the RB21 can now be used more effectively to find the car’s ideal set-up window – however small it may be.
A third factor which should not be underestimated is the new floor. At Monza, Red Bull introduced an upgrade which, according to Helmut Marko, not only delivered pure performance but also improved the car’s balance and slightly expanded its operating window.
After the win in Monza, the key question was to what extent that performance was track-specific, a topic Laurent Mekies addressed again after the Azerbaijan Grand Prix.
Max Verstappen, Red Bull Racing
Photo by: Federico Manoni / NurPhoto via Getty Images
“I think we probably feel today that some of the good stuff we have seen in Monza, we found here again,” Mekies said. “In Baku, there are only slow-speed corners, and it’s very low downforce. That combination worked very well for us. It’s a different equation compared to Monza, so that’s the good news for us.”
The graph below shows the average race pace per lap in Baku and confirms Verstappen had a comfortable advantage. The gap to George Russell was more than three tenths per lap, though it should be noted that not all figures are fully representative. Based on Friday’s data, McLaren and Ferrari should be a bit faster than this graph suggests. Both teams endured disappointing qualifying sessions and spent most of the race stuck in dirty air, unable to show their true pace.
“Compared to George Russell, I think it’s relatively possible to read,” Mekies confirmed. “I think the gap was probably a couple of tenths [per lap], but nothing more than that.
“McLaren is much more difficult to judge, because they were not finding any free air. We have seen them extremely fast at some points on Friday morning, Friday afternoon and Saturday morning. We’ll probably never know what their real pace is in the race, but there’s certainly no room to relax for us.”
Heat and high downforce on a street circuit – the Singapore challenge
The “no room to relax” part of Mekies’ comments is mostly true, because the real test is coming next weekend: the Singapore GP. On paper, it combines several elements that don’t suit Red Bull – a bumpy street track and a layout requiring a high-downforce set-up.
Marko even added with a smile: “It’s not only high downforce, it’s also bloody hot there, which our car doesn’t seem to like so much. So it will be the real benchmark to see where we are.”
Heat is indeed an important factor, since Red Bull’s rear tyres tend to overheat relatively quickly, whereas McLaren excels in that area. In Monza and Baku this wasn’t an issue due to lower degradation, but in Singapore it will be back on the surface.
“You go to Singapore, you move a bit your equations,” Mekies also acknowledged. “You keep the slow-speed corners, but you go to maximum downforce. We have been struggling quite a lot in Budapest, and even before Budapest. Also, a much hotter track, and we know how sensitive we are to this aspect, but not only us, almost the whole field.”
No repeat of Budapest?
Since Mekies mentioned Budapest, it’s worth looking at the data below – particularly the blue Red Bull line. The graph shows that in Hungary, Red Bull lost more than a second per lap (1.09s) to McLaren on a relatively short circuit. It was an enormous gap, the biggest deficit in pure race pace apart from Austria and Great Britain – but Austria wasn’t representative, since the figures are based on Yuki Tsunoda, with Verstappen taken out of the race early by Andrea Kimi Antonelli.
Budapest was one of the low points of Red Bull’s season, and the Hungaroring was the last high-downforce track before Singapore. It underlines how big the challenge is for Red Bull next week, and why it would be premature to draw conclusions about a title fight after two wins on low-downforce circuits. Singapore will be the real test in every respect, especially with Budapest’s figures in mind.
Max Verstappen, Red Bull Racing RB20
Photo by: Mark Sutton / Motorsport Images
It makes the upcoming Grand Prix a question mark, though Mekies is confident the disastrous scenario of Budapest will not repeat itself.
“I guess it’s probably fair to say that we have unlocked a bit of performance out of the car after Budapest, regardless of our issues there,” the Frenchman said. “I don’t think that Singapore will be a repeat of Budapest, so I’m more confident than that. Is it going to be enough to fight for the win? Honestly, it’s impossible to say. But it won’t be like Budapest.”
Marko had already said that Red Bull knew what had gone wrong in Hungary, but the team couldn’t make any tweaks under parc ferme conditions.
“We take the challenge of Singapore, it’s a track that’s been challenging for the team many, many years,” Mekies said, pointing out that Verstappen has never won there. “In the context of what we are trying to see, it’s very important to see what suddenly doesn’t work anymore there, and what still does.”
The Singapore GP will not only be an interesting test for the outside world to judge whether Verstappen can still play a role in this year’s title fight – it will also be a crucial benchmark for Red Bull itself, a weekend that should normally provide answers.
Last year, Lando Norris dominated under the floodlights, though Verstappen still finished second, 20 seconds behind the Briton.
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