Here are five things to watch and predictions as the Mets and Marlins play a three-game series in Miami starting on Friday at 7:10 p.m. on PIX11.
5 things to watch
It all comes down to this
As the Mets won two of three games against the Cubs in Chicago, the Reds dropped two of three to the Pirates and the Diamondbacks lost two of three to the Dodgers.
That means New York enters the final weekend of the regular season with a 1.0 game lead over the Reds and a 2.0 game lead over the D-backs for the third and final Wild Card spot in the National League.
Cincinnati owns the tiebreaker over the Mets by virtue of winning the season series, and Arizona will have the tiebreaker over them as well due to a stronger intradivision record (the teams split the season series).
So this is simple for the Mets: their magic number is three over the Reds and two over the D-backs. If they sweep the Marlins, the Reds and D-backs can't catch them.
The Reds head to Milwaukee this weekend for a three-game series against the Brewers, while the D-backs play three games against the Padres in San Diego.
The biggest start of Brandon Sproat's young career
A lot has been put on the Mets' trio of rookie starters down the stretch, and that will continue on Friday night.
Sproat gets the start in what will be the biggest and most pressure-filled outing of his young career.
His 3.94 ERA does not reflect how well he's pitched over his first three big league starts, since two of the runs he allowed on Sept. 19 against the Nationals should have been unearned due to a misplay by center fielder Jose Siri that was somehow ruled a hit.
Sproat has the stuff to thrive, and has shown poise as well. Following the hiccup he had in the third inning of his last start, he rebounded to throw a shutdown frame in the fourth to complete his night.
Who will start for the Mets on Saturday and Sunday?
Following Sproat's start on Friday, things are up in the air.
It seems likely that Clay Holmes will start on Saturday, but who pitches after him is a mystery. That's because it's been a struggle for Sean Manaea since his strong piggyback performance on Sept. 16, when he allowed one run in 5.0 innings.
Manaea surrendered three runs in 3.0 innings in a start on Sept. 21 against the Nationals, and allowed two runs in 1.0 inning while pitching in relief against the Cubs on Wednesday.
As far as Sunday?
If that game matters for the Mets, it's very hard to envision them handing the ball to David Peterson. The lefty allowed five runs in 1.1 innings on Tuesday in Chicago, and has an 8.42 ERA in 41.2 innings over nine starts dating back to Aug. 6.
So it could be all hands on deck for New York on Sunday afternoon.
Will Mets go defense over offense?
The Mets have vacillated between defensive and offensive lineups lately.
On Thursday night against the Cubs, they went with Tyrone Taylor in center field, Luisangel Acuña at second base, and Luis Torrens behind the plate.
Earlier in the series, they had a lineup that included Brandon Nimmo in center field and Starling Marte in left field.
Perhaps the Mets will split the difference a bit in Miami.
A lineup with Brett Baty at third base, Taylor in center field, Francisco Alvarez behind the plate, and with DH duties split between Marte and Mark Vientos could make the most sense.
Marlins' starting pitching is lined up perfectly
The Marlins' minuscule playoff chances were extinguished on Thursday, but they remain a tough opponent.
That mainly has to do with the three pitchers they'll have toeing the rubber to start these games.
It will be Sandy Alcantara on Friday (the Marlins pushed him back so he can pitch in this series), Eury Perez on Saturday, and Edward Cabrera on Sunday.
Following a tough first half as he worked back into shape following Tommy John surgery, Alcantara has been dominant. In seven starts since Aug. 15, he has a 2.70 ERA in 46.2 innings, allowing just 30 hits.
Perez has been hit and miss (the Mets lit him up for five runs on Aug. 29 as he failed to escape the first inning), but has filthy stuff. The same can be said for Cabrera, who has slowed down a bit lately — New York touched him up for six runs (five earned) in 4.0 innings on Aug. 30.
Predictions
Who will the MVP of the series be?
Francisco Lindor
Lindor has the same look in his eye at the plate that he had during the 2024 NLDS against the Phillies.
Which Mets pitcher will have the best start?
Clay Holmes
Holmes has been strong over his last three appearances.
Which Marlins player will be a thorn in the Mets' side?
Jakob Marsee
The rookie has an .876 OPS over his first 222 big league plate appearances.
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