McLaren still sees Verstappen as F1 title threat despite 94-point gap

For months a two-way intra-team title fight between Oscar Piastri and Lando Norris has seemed like a forgone conclusion to the 2025 season, but McLaren team principal has always refused to rule out defending champion Max Verstappen.

He repeated that statement after Verstappen took a second pole position on the bounce, keeping cool amid the Baku qualifying chaos to overhaul Williams’ Carlos Sainz while other frontrunners faltered. That included McLaren’s own Oscar Piastri, who crashed in Turn 4, and Lando Norris, who got out of shape in Turn 15 in a messy final lap, heading out first to avoid falling victim to yet another qualifying stoppage.

With Verstappen on pole, Norris seventh and Piastri as low as ninth on the grid, the Dutchman is the overwhelming favourite to take a second consecutive win, which seemed a remote prospect not all that long ago.

Verstappen’s chances certainly seemed fanciful when Red Bull was in the doldrums after a disastrous Hungarian Grand Prix, but since F1’s modern day hegemon blew away the McLarens on race pace in Monza it feels like the Milton Keynes squad caught a second wind. Red Bull is hopeful Monza did complete a turnaround with a fresh engineering approach and an upgraded floor, with Helmut Marko confident Verstappen could be in the mix on all circuits, especially tracks that don’t emphasise McLaren’s long, medium-speed corner strengths.

McLaren’s conclusion from its post-Monza analysis is that it shares that view. “Well, the takeaway from the Monza race and the way we have reviewed this internally and set our mindset for the final third of the season, was that Red Bull’s performance in Monza should not be considered a one-off because of Monza, or because of low downforce,” Stella argued.

“They have taken a new floor to Monza. They might be setting up their car slightly differently. We hear now Verstappen talking about grounding much more than it was doing before. So they might have unlocked performance, and I would not be surprised at all that Red Bull continues the streak that they have started. Pole position in Monza, victory, pole position here, Red Bull are a very serious contender to win races and a very serious contender for the drivers’ championship.”
 
Motorsport.com pulled Stella up on what appeared to be a throwaway comment generously talking up the opposition. Does the ever rational engineer in Stella really believe that?

“A firm YES. Can you write it in capitals? Because it was quoted in capitals,” he jested.

Even given how far behind Verstappen is at this stage? The four-time world champion’s gap to Piastri currently stands at 94 points with just 224 points remaining.

“Of course, of course,” he continued. “We don’t have to forget that first of all he’s Max Verstappen – world champion for the last four years – in a fast car. Like I said before, there are races where McLaren may not enjoy any advantage from a competitiveness point of view.
 
“And Lando and Oscar are always there, so they won’t necessarily be maximising the points available. Sometimes it will be a little bit more points for Lando and a little bit more for Oscar, so they may take some points away from each other. We are very aware of this aspect, but we let them race because they both deserve to pursue their aspirations. Therefore, yes, Verstappen and Red Bull in contention for the drivers’ championship.”

He couldn’t, could he?

Taking Stella’s comments at face value, making up 94 points in eight race weekends seems a long shot at best, even if Verstappen were to win every race from now on. As Stella points out, Verstappen does not have a team-mate capable of taking points off him while Piastri and Norris are generally nip and tuck.

But even in the edge case of Verstappen winning all eight remaining grands prix as well as the three Saturday sprints in Austin, Brazil and Qatar, then current leader Oscar Piastri would have to score fewer than 131 points for the Dutchman to prevail, which means the Australian could settle for third place on average and still retain a seven-point buffer.

Piastri would need 130 points to draw level, but in case of a tie Verstappen would have amassed more race wins. Norris, who is 63 points ahead of the Red Bull driver, can obviously afford much less wiggle room, but that also applies to his fight with Piastri in the first place.

At this stage of the season such a turnaround would eclipse Vettel clawing back 44 points on Alonso to win in 2010 and Kimi Raikkonen overturning a 20-point deficit in 2007 to Lewis Hamilton – the equivalent of two races wins under the old points system – although Raikkonen’s comeback was more spectacular because he made up 17 points over the last two weekends alone.

But in an era of unprecedented reliability, with Norris’ Zandvoort retirement McLaren’s first technical DNF in two and a half seasons, Verstappen would need Piastri to also start suffering from misfortune, with the Dutchman himself long writing off any title aspiration himself.

A firm ‘Yes’? Barring a spectacular meltdown, according to our maths it’s a firm ‘No’.

Photo by: Andy Hone/ LAT Images via Getty Images