How can McLaren clinch the F1 teams’ title at upcoming Azerbaijan GP?

McLaren has a hefty 617 points in Formula 1’s 2025 constructors’ championship with eight rounds to go. If it maintains that current rate, it can expect to sit on approximately 925 points by the end of the year – which would surpass Red Bull’s record of 860 points in 2023.

There are eight grands prix and three sprint races remaining this season, leaving a maximum of 389 points on the table. Thus, McLaren could feasibly break the 1000-point barrier if it claimed a 1-2 in every one of them over the remainder of the season.

As it stands, McLaren is 337 points clear of Ferrari, and would need to be 389 at this point to have won the title already (since there is no chance Ferrari can win the title on countback, given it has zero grand prix victories in 2025).

To win the championship at the Azerbaijan Grand Prix, McLaren needs to be 346 points ahead of the team in second place. If Oscar Piastri and Lando Norris secure a 1-2 in Baku, this would guarantee a second-successive constructors’ crown for McLaren.

If McLaren does not win in Azerbaijan, it only needs to score nine more points than Ferrari, be outscored by Mercedes by no more than 11 points, and by no more than 32 points by Red Bull, to sew up this year’s championship.

For example, if Ferrari managed a 1-2 in Baku, then McLaren’s title celebrations would have to wait until Singapore. Even if Ferrari manages to win with one car and fails to score with the other, then the swing for McLaren in finishing second and third would not be enough to clinch the championship on the day.

Assuming both McLarens finish well within the points, Mercedes would need to win in Baku. The Brackley squad would also need to finish at least fourth should neither McLaren score, or finish sixth and seventh with both cars, to remain in the battle ahead of Singapore.

If a McLaren wins in Azerbaijan, Mercedes will be out of the championship reckoning whatever happens; furthermore, if neither Mercedes driver stands on the podium, it will require both McLaren drivers to also miss the top three.

There are other permutations, however. Red Bull is not yet mathematically out of the title battle, but it needs to secure at least 33 points and have McLaren not score to remain in the constructors’ championship fight.

This means that it either has to win, or have both cars on the podium in the event of a McLaren non-score. If either McLaren finishes fourth in Baku, or achieves 11 points by any other combination, Red Bull’s unlikely title chances are over.

Permutations in brief:

– McLaren is 337 points clear of Ferrari, 357 clear of Mercedes, 378 clear of Red Bull.

– After the Azerbaijan Grand Prix, there will be a maximum of 346 points available by finishing first and second in every race, including the three sprint rounds.

– McLaren must score nine more points in Baku than Ferrari to win the title directly after the Azerbaijan Grand Prix, while maintaining its current leads over Mercedes and Red Bull.

– In that scenario, McLaren can afford to be outscored by Mercedes by no more than 11 points, or by Red Bull by 32 points, in Baku.

– If McLaren gets at least win and a third place in Azerbaijan, it will win the constructors’ title no matter what.