2026 NBA MVP Odds, Favorites & Prediction: No Joking Matter

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Don’t look now, but Nikola Jokic is back in the picture.

An afterthought in January when he missed 16 games with a left ankle sprain, the Serbian big man has risen to second on the NBA MVP Odds board thanks to an impressive 10-game stretch in which he has averaged 26.0 points, 13.7 rebounds, and 9.1 assists per game. His strong play has Denver back in the thick of the playoff hunt and has Jokic within striking distance of his fourth most valuable player trophy.

Jokic’s reemergence has coincided with an injury to reigning MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who has seen his odds move from -380 to -140 while he deals with an abdominal strain that has sidelined him far longer than expected.

Our friends at bet365 have boosted Nickola Jokic’s NBA MVP odds from +275 to +300. Act now while the value lasts.

Let’s take a look at the latest NBA MVP odds below.

🏀2026 NBA MVP odds

Odds from bet365, one of our best betting apps. Sign up with our bet365 promo code, or get one of our other sportsbook promos.

The last week has seen plenty of upheaval as Cade Cunningham has moved from +1400 to +500 and Victor Wembanyama has moved from +3000 to +1800. Conversely, Luka Doncic has dropped from +2000 to +3000 as late game execution issues and a pair of Laker defeats have taken the luster off his MVP campaign.

NBA MVP prediction

With voters increasingly sensitive to both team success and two-way impact, SGA has the cleanest path to an MVP narrative this season. He’s the best player on a top-two team in the West, elite efficiency from all three levels, and offers real defensive bite at the point of attack. His game scales without drama as he can dominate in isolation or flow within movement-heavy actions, and he gets to the line a ton without forcing bad shots. If Oklahoma City’s depth keeps their net ratings gaudy when he sits, while his on/off still pops, he’ll own the “drives winning” storyline that tends to decide close MVP races.

Doncic has put up video-game numbers again, yet the bar for heliocentric guards keeps rising, and defensive skepticism plus any midseason usage management could ding his case.

By contrast, SGA’s steadiness, durability, and two-way credibility give him multiple avenues to “win” the discourse even if raw counting stats are a tick lower, especially if the Thunder post the league’s best record.

My late February wager on Nikola Jokic is a value play as he’s simply too good to ignore at plus odds. The issue with Joker is that he must play at least 65 games to qualify for the award, so any additional missed time could kill his candidacy.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander vs Nikola Jokic head-to-head

It seems only fitting we have a two-horse race given Jokic’s love for all things equine. Voters will have to ask themselves whether they prefer SGA’s scoring and the Thunder’s superior record or Jokic’s overall brilliance and ability to stuff a box score.

📈 NBA odds over time

This year’s MVP chase has been a heavyweight melee. Follow along all season as we update this graphic with contenders rising and falling.

💰2026 NBA MVP opening odds

• Shai Gilgeous-Alexander +150

• Giannis Antetokounmpo +1200

NBA MVP betting data

The following data is courtesy of BetMGM.

• Highest ticket percentage: Cade Cunningham 20.8%

• Highest handle percentage: Nikola Jokic 19.6%

• Biggest liability: Cade Cunningham

• Odds leader: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander -140

Popular NBA awards odds

How is the NBA MVP decided?

The MVP award is one of the most prestigious honors in professional basketball—and one of the most debated. But how is the MVP actually chosen?

🗳️ MVP Voting Process

The MVP is determined by a panel of 100 sportswriters and broadcasters from the U.S. and Canada, as well as a fan vote that counts as one ballot. Each voter selects five players, ranked from first to fifth place. The point system is as follows:

• 1st place vote: 10 points

The player with the highest total point tally at the end of voting is crowned NBA MVP.

📊 What Do Voters Consider?

While there’s no official checklist, MVP voters typically weigh several key factors:

• Individual statistics: Points, assists, rebounds, efficiency, advanced metrics like PER or Win Shares

• Team success: MVPs are rarely chosen from losing teams and Top 3 seeds are the norm

• Narrative and storyline: Voters often reward players overcoming adversity or carrying a franchise

• Consistency and availability: Games played, durability, and clutch performance matter

👀 Voter Biases and Trends

Some unofficial trends also influence MVP outcomes:

• “Voter fatigue”: Players who’ve already won may need to outperform their own past seasons to win again

• New blood bias: Voters sometimes prefer rising stars over repeat winners

• Position favoritism: Guards and forwards tend to dominate MVP voting, although that trend has been changing in recent years

📜NBA MVP betting history

A quick look at recent NBA MVPs and their opening odds.

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