2026 NBA Draft Odds: Latest Lottery Projections & #1 Pick Favorites

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Both the NBA and college basketball seasons are winding down, which means 2026 NBA Draft odds are becoming a major topic of discussion.

The NBA has come under fire for almost one-third of the league seemingly tanking — but with one of the deepest draft classes in years (including the “Big Three” prospects of Darryn Peterson, A.J. Dybansta, and Cam Boozer), the NBA’s cellar dwellers have a lot to gain… by losing.

The NBA Draft Lottery is scheduled for May 10, where we’ll find out which team selects first, but for now, here are the latest odds for which player will go No. 1 (where it’s currently a near-tie between Dybantsa and Peterson) at the NBA Draft on June 24.

2026 NBA Draft odds to go No. 1

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2026 NBA Mock Draft: Top 5 Scouting Reports

The 2026 class is defined by a “Big Three” at the top, followed by high-upside versatile wings. Here is how the top of the board looks as we head toward March Madness.

1. AJ Dybantsa | SF | BYU

2025-26 stats: 24.8 ppg, 6.7 rpg, 52.1 FG%

Dybantsa is the most “pro-ready” scorer in the class. Standing 6-foot-9 with a 7-foot wingspan, he currently leads the nation in scoring — including an absurd 30 ppg in February. He is explosive in driving to the paint, and getting to the free-throw line a lot, and he has a strong mid-range game… plus he has greatly improved as a playmaker and ball handler as the season has progressed.

2. Darryn Peterson | G | Kansas

2025-26 stats: 19.5 ppg, 38.5 3PT%

Bill Self has called Peterson the best recruit he’s ever landed at Kansas, as the 6-foot-5 combo guard has elite body control and a methodical scoring pace. He has dealt with minor hamstring and ankle issues this season, but remains the draft’s best pure scorer as he can bully smaller guards in the post or pull up from 30 feet with ease.

3. Cameron Boozer | PF | Duke

2025-26 stats: 22.6 ppg, 10.0 rpg, 58.3 FG%

The son of former NBA player Carlos Boozer, Cam is the most productive player in college basketball. He’s not as flashy (or may not have quite as high a ceiling) as the flashy wings above him, but Boozer has the highest floor of any player in the draft to turn out as a highly productive player. He is an elite short-roll passer, a solid defender, and can also hit jumpers from a distance.

4. Caleb Wilson | F | North Carolina

2025-26 stats: 19.8 ppg, 9.4 rpg, 57.8 FG%

Possibly the most athletic player in the draft, has major hops and a relentless motor, which combine well with his elite speed at 6-foot-10. He’s a raw player: He struggles to finish at the rim, is not a 3-point threat at all right now, and has issues in off-ball defense, but his potential is as high as any player in the draft.

5. Kingston Flemings | G | Houston

2025-26 stats: 16.6 ppg, 5.3 apg, 84.8 FT%

Flemings has been the biggest draft riser throughout the season. A true point guard, he is a skilled passer, and his incredible speed sees him wreak havoc by getting in the paint and he shines in the open court. His improved jump shot has helped him move from a projected late-lottery pick to the Top-5 conversation over the last few months.

NBA mock draft comparison table

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Current 2026 NBA Draft Lottery odds

The three teams finishing with the worst record in the NBA all have equal odds of winning the first-overall pick. while the fourth and fifth-worst teams also have odds better than 10% to land No. 1.

*New Orleans traded its unprotected 2026 first-round pick to Atlanta for Derik Queen at the 2025 draft.

NBA Draft betting trends

Here are some recent trends you’ll want to keep in mind when betting on NBA Draft odds:

• Positions have been reasonably well-distributed among the No. 1 picks. Over the past 21 NBA Drafts, nine have been forwards, seven guards, and five centers.

• “One-and-done” college freshmen make up the overwhelming majority of recent top picks, being selected No. 1 in 16 of the past 19 seasons since high schoolers were ruled ineligible.

• Among NCAA schools, Duke leads the all-time count with five No. 1-overall picks, including Paolo Banchero in 2022.

Popular NBA futures markets

History of first overall NBA Draft picks

Cooper Flagg’s selection last year ended a two-year stretch of international players taken No. 1 — after just one such player (Andrea Bargnani, 2006) was selected in the previous 17 years.

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