2026 NBA Championship Odds: Thunder Still Ahead of Surging Nuggets

The Oklahoma City Thunder brought some order to the wild west on Sunday with a convincing 121-111 win over the surging Denver Nuggets.

It was just the second victory in five games for OKC, but the fact it came against the Nuggets should put bettors minds at ease. Reigning MVP Shai Gilgeous Alexander set the pace with a game-high 34 points and the Thunder led by as many as 18 points before taking their foot off the gas late in the fourth quarter.

The win improved Oklahoma City’s record to 39-11 and the club continues to be on pace to establish the highest net rating in league history. In fact, OKC is considered to be such a prohibitive favorite that bet365 is now offering a Thunder (+115) vs. the Field (-145) market.

Let’s dive into the latest odds as the new year gets underway.

🏆 2026 NBA Championship odds

The Thunder’s odds have moved from +230 before the season began to +115 today. Rounding out the Top 5 are the Denver Nuggets (+500), New York Knicks (+1400), Boston Celtics (+1500), and San Antonio Spurs (+1500).

📈 2026 NBA Finals odds over time

Here’s a visual representation of how the NBA championship has odds evolved since June 2025.

💰 Sportsbook betting splits and insights

Highest ticket percentage
•    Nuggets 8.8%
•    Thunder 8.7%
•    Mavericks 8.2%
 
Highest handle percentage
•    Thunder 17.9%
•    Mavericks 16.3%
•    Lakers 13.3%
 
Biggest liability
•    Mavericks 
•    Lakers
•    Warriors

Data courtesy of BetMGM.

2026 NBA Championship opening odds

🤖 AI NBA Championship prediction

We turned to the enormous computing power of ChatGPT to find out who the large language model believes will be the last team standing this season. Not surprisingly, it stuck with the defending champs.

Oklahoma City has the cleanest runway to be the best team in 2026: an MVP-caliber engine in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander entering the heart of his prime, a two-way star wing in Jalen Williams, and a 7-footer in Chet Holmgren whose blend of rim protection, spacing, and feel supercharges modern schemes. That trio already drives elite half-court efficiency and a top-tier defense, and it’s backed by organizational continuity that reliably turns role players into playoff-useful pieces. Holmgren’s strength and timing appear to be fully NBA-hardened, unlocking more switching and fewer help-and-recover compromises, while SGA’s mid-range and foul-drawing remain matchup-proof in May and June.

Depth and optionality push the Thunder over the top. They can win big or small, play five-out without sacrificing rim protection, and toggle between pressure defense and conservative coverages depending on opponent. Crucially, they still have surplus picks and cap flexibility to plug the inevitable holes that show up in a long postseason, whether that’s a second unit scorer, another stretch big, or a specialist wing.

Expect a rotation stacked with plus length, shooting, and decision-making around the core; enough to outlast the West’s heavyweights and finish the job in the Finals.

This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here