With the fresh fantasy baseball season approaching, it’s time to get you some tiered rankings from my Shuffle Up series. Use these for salary cap drafts, straight drafts, keeper decisions or merely a view of how the position ebbs and flows. We’ve already handled all the hitters; now, we move to the mound.
Starting pitchers in fantasy baseball are similar to running backs in fantasy football. The position will generally be riddled with injuries. We’ll want to have several speculation plays on our bench, guys who just need one thing to click. And getting this position right — or running lucky at this position — is probably the most important part of your fantasy season.
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In past years, I would often be the last manager to address starting pitching, blanching at the uncertainty. Occasionally, I had success with this concept (one year I won the Yahoo Friends & Family League despite not drafting a starter; I did build a staff later) but I’ve since discarded the idea as a -EV strategy.
I want to proactively build my staff, like most of my competitors, at the draft. And I’ll have to live with the variance like anyone else.
The numbers are unscientific in nature and meant to reflect where talent clusters and drops off. Assume a 5×5 scoring system, as usual, and away we go.
More Tiered Rankings
The Big Tickets
If you’re open to a high-priced ace but would prefer to start with a hitter, pray that Crochet slips to the second part of your draft. He’s in the prime of his career, tied to a team expected to contend for the playoffs and not reliant on a max-velocity fastball. Crochet will also be helped by his defense — the infield might be in flux, but the outfielders are all excellent, and the catching is also above average. Crochet was a little homer-prone at Fenway but still dominant there, and no one touched him on the road (2.25/1.00). The Red Sox were right to go all-in on Chris Sale once upon a time, and history repeated itself when it cleared out the prospect chest for Crochet last year.
Because the Dodgers already have nine toes in the playoffs, I’m going to be careful with workload projections for everyone on staff. Los Angeles will basically run a six-man rotation all year, and anytime a pitcher has the slightest hiccup with their arms and elbows, a rest is to be expected. Yamamoto is the only L.A. pitcher who’s qualified for the ERA title over the last three years (162 innings), and he’s also the only returning Dodger starter who logged more than 91 innings last year.
Webb is 60 innings ahead of the field over the past three years and working in San Francisco mitigates some of his mistakes. With a good-but-not-elite strikeout clip and a ground-ball bias, we have to accept that in some starts, Webb will get crushed by BABIP misfortune. And you have to be okay with his fastball checking in at an ordinary 92.6 mph. But Webb looks like a perfect fourth-round target to me.
DeGrom’s inning count has turned into an unsolvable SAT question. Starting in 2021 and cutting off the partials, this is what we’re looking at: 92, 64, 30, 10, 172. He’s moving into his age-38 season. Maybe it’s a fool’s errand to suppose any pitcher has a legitimate floor, but I know deGrom at this stage doesn’t have one. My heart will always be invested in deGrom, so I’ll avoid doubling down with fantasy investment. You have to decide for yourself.
Legitimate Building Blocks
Rotator cuff problems cost Ragans more than half of his season, but the rest of his results were a cause of bad luck — every reasonable ERA estimator says he should have been in the mid-2s, not the 4.67 number on the back of his card. Ragans gave us a reminder of his upside with 13 return innings in September, striking out 22. There’s no reason why he can’t return to his 2024 level of production (3.14/1.14, fourth in Cy Young voting).
Cease was a frustrating case last year, as he piled up 215 strikeouts but gave us hurtful ratios (4.55/1.33). Toronto’s defense should help him turn more batted events into outs. Maybe he’s not going to challenge for the Cy Young again, but normalized sequencing should give him a mid-threes ERA, and he’s proven to be durable. Don’t let his standard stats scare you off.
Talk Them Up, Talk Them Down
The Brewers have become the new Rays, the low-market team that makes better decisions than just about everyone else and winds up in the tournament every fall. Thus, I want to be proactive with their high-upside arms like Misiorowski and Henderson, while fully understanding that the team will be careful with workloads and pitch counts. If Misiorowski even gets to 24 starts, he probably returns his spring draft cost.
The early market is not bullish on Abbott, which means he can actually be worse than last year and still return a profit. Regress-and-win players are my jam. The strikeouts will play, and fly-ball pitchers are misunderstood — at least they’re showing control of their outcomes.
The Marlins are ready to take the training wheels off with Pérez, and it’s hard to unsee that tidy 0.96 WHIP he had over his final 16 starts. With the Tommy John surgery firmly in the background, Perez is poised for a possible breakout. Hopefully, he doesn’t feel like he needs to strike out the world — the Marlins have a problematic defense.
Some Plausible Upside
Peruse the Boyd splits and you might abandon the case — 12 of his wins were at home but he was a mess on the road, and his breakout stopped in the second half (4.63/1.19). And last season was his first full year starting out of six. But the Cubs have a top-five defense and a top-five lineup to support Boyd, and Yahoo rooms are giving you a reasonable 197.6 ticket. I can sign off.
Ober has always been a curious case, a 6-foot-9 righty with below-average velocity. A hip problem was probably responsible for his messy 2025; his three years prior gave us a 3.66 ERA and 1.03 WHIP. He’s well priced for profit, even if the Minnesota defense is no longer an asset.
Nola routinely comes up short of his expected stats to the point that you have to accept it as part of his profile. And even if that horrible 6.01 ERA was reduced to his 4.58 FIP, it’s not like either stat helps you. His fastball has lost velocity for four straight seasons and homers, always a problem, hit a new low last season. Nola might seem like a tantalizing name pick at a reduced ADP, but I’m not chasing him on the back nine of a slowly-fading career.
Bargain Bin
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$1 *Spencer Schwellenbach
Senga has a wide range of outcomes — you could imagine him being in a playoff rotation come October, but he’s also not guaranteed to make the Mets out of training camp. Maybe Senga’s second-half collapse was mostly about hamstring problems, but keep in mind he’s 33 and we’re three years removed from his last full season.
With someone like Matthews, we follow the strikeout rate and the prospect pedigree and hope he can improve the control. His ultimate success will come down to finding a solution against lefties, who slashed .316/.372/.572 against him last year.
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