One of the biggest minefields to navigate when approaching drafting starting pitchers in fantasy baseball is our injury tolerance. We know that pitching inherently leads to an elevated risk of arm injuries, so some drafters believe that the best course of action is to lean into that risk. If all pitchers are at risk of injury, then drafting pitchers who present that risk early in the season allows you to potentially get value out of a depressed price.
For many years, I was one of those people, but the last few years have led me to change my ways. Even if there is truly no such thing as a “safe” starting pitcher, using an injury to buy a pitcher at a lower cost has also not proven to be a worthwhile strategy in recent seasons. Heading into the 2025 season, we knew that Shane McClanahan, George Kirby, Spencer Strider, Lucas Giolito, Sean Manaea, Yu Darvish, Brayan Bello, Ranger Suarez, Luis Gil, Ryan Weathers, and Clarke Schmidt were all going to be delayed to start the season. Some people saw that as a chance to draft a talented pitcher at a depressed price. However, from that group, only Ranger Suarez finished as a top-50 starting pitcher in 2025, according to FanGraphs Player Rater.
We also had Shane Bieber hope to come back from the All-Star break, but not actually return until August 22nd. We had Brandon Woodruff hope to return in May and not make his season debut until July 6th. We also had Grayson Rodriguez claim that he would come back at some point early in the season and wind up not throwing a single pitch in 2025. All of which is to say that relying on currently injured starting pitchers is a decision that doesn’t often pay off if we’re taking that risk earlier than the final couple of picks in our drafts.
Even though I’ve adjusted my approach slightly, you may not be convinced, so in this article, we can walk through all the fantasy-relevant pitchers who are coming into this season with injury concerns. For each one, I’ll discuss whether I would take the risk on drafting him and in what situations. Hopefully this helps all of us avoid making those draft picks that wind up giving us little or no value during the 2026 fantasy baseball season.
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Missed (essentially) all of 2025 and could return by opening day
Shane McClanahan – SP, Tampa Bay Rays
McClanahan missed the entire 2024 season after undergoing Tommy John surgery and was expected to start the 2025 season in the Rays’ rotation. However, a nerve issue in his final start of spring training led to him being sidelined all year following a surgical procedure with Dr. Steven Shin to “clean up around the nerve” in his left triceps. It’s also key to note that those two injuries are not connected. McClanahan has already been throwing and is “having a really good offseason,” according to manager Kevin Cash. Rays president of baseball operations Erik Neander said that McClanahan has “a day in the rotation,” which means that fantasy managers should expect him to be ready to start the season and also pitch once every five days for Tampa Bay.
Now, Tampa Bay will likely limit him to about five innings per start early in the year, but they did that for Drew Rasmussen last year, and he put up solid fantasy value. McClanahan has a career 3.02 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, and 28% strikeout rate. He is an elite starting pitcher. If we assume that he will be rusty and on a pitch count early on in the season, then McClanahan could be just a decent starter early on and then settle back into a solid arm. To me, that makes him a good target if you’re outside the top 40 starting pitchers and already have a strong rotation foundation.
BUY or SELL: BUY AS LONG AS THE PRICE DOESN’T RISE TOO HIGH
Grayson Rodriguez – SP, Los Angeles Angels
Grayson Rodriguez could not shake the injury bug last season. In March, he was placed on the IL with right elbow inflammation, and it seemed like surgery would be on the table. However, the right-hander was certain he would return, only to suffer a lat strain in April that put him on the IL. Then, in July, he re-injured his right elbow and eventually had debridement surgery in August to clean up bone spurs in his elbow.
The concern for me, aside from the elbow issues, is that Rodriguez has now been on the IL three separate times with right lat strains since 2022. When you add in the fact that the Orioles traded him to the Angels this offseason, when his value was near its lowest, that’s not a glowing endorsement for what the organization thought of his health. He’s now on a worse team with a worse track record of developing pitching, so this is not a situation I want any part of. Sure, I’ll draft a share of Rodriguez if he falls into my lap late in drafts, but I can’t see taking him inside the top 70 starting pitchers right now.
BUY or SELL: SELL
Joe Musgrove – SP, San Diego Padres
Musgrove got hurt in the NL Wild Card round back in 2024 and then had Tommy John surgery. He started throwing bullpens in August and is apparently on track to return at the start of the season and will not be on any kind of strict innings limit in San Diego, which is good news. I have been a Musgrove fan, relative to the market, in recent years because I think he’s just a solid arm who hasn’t really been bad since 2019.
However, part of Musgrove’s value before injury was his floor. Since the start of the 2021 season, Musgrove has pitched to a 3.20 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, and 25.5% strikeout rate in 559.1 innings. That’s helping you in most formats. Given that he didn’t pitch at all last season and is coming off Tommy John surgery at 33 years old, we have to expect regression for Musgrove. Perhaps he’s closer to his 3.73 career ERA. Perhaps he’s more of a 23% strikeout rate arm. His WHIP will likely inch back up towards 1.20. And we have no idea how deep into games he’ll be able to go. If you wanted to take a gamble on that late in 15-team leagues, I can still see the value in his floor, but his profile, coming off an injury, is not as alluring in shallow formats.
BUY or SELL: BUY IN DEEPER FORMATS ONLY
Reynaldo Lopez – SP, Atlanta Braves
Reynaldo Lopez made one start in 2025 before landing on the IL with right shoulder inflammation and eventually undergoing surgery. On a positive note, the surgery revealed no structural damage, only inflammation, and Lopez was back throwing in July. However, by the end of August, it was clear that the Braves weren’t going to contend, so the team decided to shut Lopez down.
Given that Lopez has battled injuries for much of his career and has thrown over 66 innings just once since 2019, it’s fair to question his health. However, he is also coming off his best season ever in 2024 and has a spot in the Braves rotation with AJ Smith-Shawver, Grant Holmes, and Spencer Schwellenbach also hurt. If Lopez is healthy in spring training, I’m more than fine with using one of my last starting pitcher spots on him and just rolling the dice that I’ll get some decent production before he gets hurt again.
BUY or SELL: BUY AS A FLYER
Braxton Garrett – SP, Miami Marlins
Kutter Crawford – SP, Boston Red Sox
Josiah Gray – SP, Washington Nationals
I’m including these guys all together because it’s a really quick “sell” for me.
BUY or SELL: SELL
MLB: Playoffs-Seattle Mariners at Toronto Blue Jays
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Eric Samulski ranks his top 150 starting pitchers for 2026.
Will miss the start of 2026
Gerrit Cole – SP, New York Yankees
I am considerably lower on Cole than many of my Rotoworld colleagues, and I think that’s just me recalibrating from being too willing to draft injured “aces” too early. Cole suffered from right elbow inflammation and a nerve issue in 2024. He was able to pitch most of the year, but then he had elbow soreness in March and underwent Tommy John surgery. Those two issues back-to-back for a pitcher who’s 35 years old doesn’t make me feel great.
Cole is aiming to return in late May or early June, so, assuming everything goes according to plan, he will still miss two months. When he returns, we have to acknowledge that he wasn’t even the same strikeout pitcher before the injury. In 2023, he had a 27% strikeout rate, and that fell to 25.4% in 2024. He’s no longer a 30% strikeout rate arm, and we know that he’s not going to throw more than about 110-130 innings. From 2021 on, Cole has had a 3.15 ERA and 1.03 WHIP in 686 innings, so if we’re assuming some post-injury regression, is he a 3.40-3.50 ERA pitcher with a 25% strikeout rate and plus WHIP? That’s certainly useful, but it’s not a fantasy ace. Add the time missed to that, and I can’t take him inside my top 40 pitchers in drafts, and I likely won’t be drafting him in any leagues where he just has to sit on my bench for two or more months.
BUY or SELL: BUY AT DISCOUNT IF I HAVE AN IL SPOT
Carlos Rodon – SP, New York Yankees
Cole’s teammate is in a bit of a better spot health-wise. Rodón had surgery in October to remove bone spurs in his elbow and was initially expected to be back at the end of May. However, at the end of January, Rodón said that he thought he’d be able to make some spring training appearances, even if he still started the year on the IL. That would be a late-April/early May return in the realm of possibility. So we should be all-in, right?
Well, just remember that Rodón also had left shoulder surgery in 2017, Tommy John surgery in 2019, and a forearm strain in 2023, so there are a lot of shoulder/elbow injuries in his past that we can’t ignore. I like Rodón, and I had him ranked inside my top 25 before the elbow surgery. Now, I just can’t see him pitching 175 innings, as he did in three of the last four years. That’s going to cut into a lot of his productivity, but I could see drafting him outside of the top 40 starting pitchers, especially if I had an IL spot for him to begin the year. From January 15th on, he is being drafted as the 60th starting pitcher in NFBC formats, and while I might not draft him there in a format where I need to hold him on my bench, that would be a great spot in a league with an IL spot.
BUY or SELL: BUY AT DISCOUNT IF I HAVE AN IL SPOT
Zack Wheeler – SP, Philadelphia Phillies
The Wheeler situation is confusing. In August, he was diagnosed with venous thoracic outlet syndrome and a shoulder blood clot. He had surgery at the beginning of September and was given an eight-month timeline for return at the time, which would have put him on track for May, but the team had also indicated they would be cautious with him. Now we’re hearing that Wheeler has begun throwing from 75 feet and could be available “near the start of the season.”
The issue here is that “near the start of the season” apparently means anytime between Opening Day and late May. That’s a two-month window where we might see Wheeler back on the mound, and then we have to acknowledge that he’s coming back from thoracic outlet syndrome surgery, which has been tricky for many starting pitchers to do. We know Stephen Strasburg never really made it back to the same pitcher he was, and the best “success” story is Merrill Kelly, who is really an entirely different type of pitcher than Wheeler.
Given the nebulous timeline for Wheeler and the difficult injury to return from, I’m going to be very cautious in approaching him this draft season. Considering his ADP since January 15th has him going as the 36th starting pitcher off the board, inside the top 140 picks, I can’t see myself paying that price.
BUY or SELL: SELL
Spencer Schwellenbach – SP, Atlanta Braves
Schwellenbach looked electric in 2025 before suffering a stress fracture in his elbow. The injury was almost assuredly tied to his velocity increase. That’s obviously a bit concerning, but I don’t think Schwellenbach needs the extra velocity to be an impact starter. He has a deep pitch mix and good command of the zone. I would have also liked to have seen him on the mound at the end of the season, but the Braves made the decision to prioritize rest for him in August when they realized they were too injured to contend for a World Series title. Otherwise, the team had said Schwellenbach would have been able to pitch in September.
I was all set to put Schwellenbach into my top 25, but then word came out the day before pitchers and catchers reported that he was going to be placed on the 60-day IL with elbow inflammation. The Braves stated that they were hoping it was just connected to bone spurs, but he will have surgery and, given last year’s injury, I think I have Schwellenbach totally off my draft board now, which makes me sad.
BUY or SELL: SELL
Corbin Burnes – SP, Arizona Diamondbacks
Burnes was diagnosed with ligament damage in his elbow in June of last year and then had Tommy John surgery in the middle of the month. Over the winter, Burnes himself said that he was “looking at probably sometime in July” for his return. Specifically, he mentioned the All-Star break, which was also Shane Bieber‘s target return date last year. We know that Bieber had one setback, which pushed his return date, and he only pitched 40.1 innings last season. We may get the same thing from Burnes. Even if Burnes does come back after the All-Star break, you’re likely looking at 10 starts for a pitcher who has 444 strikeouts in his last 452.1 innings. This is not a gamble I’m taking in any redraft formats.
BUY or SELL: SELL
Justin Steele – SP, Chicago Cubs
Steele is another pitcher with an inexact timeline for return. He had internal brace surgery on his elbow back in the middle of April, which should mean he can return to the mound early in the season. In January, we got an update that Steele feels “back to normal,” and is planning to report to spring training with the rest of the pitching staff. While that is good news, we know that he’s also going to use spring training to ramp up and is unlikely to break camp with the team. That could put him back sometime in late April or in May, much like Zack Wheeler.
So we have a pitcher with a 3.18 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, and 24.4% strikeout rate in 450 innings since the start of 2022, potentially returning in May. Even if we bake in some regression there, that’s a 3.50 ERA type of arm with just under one strikeout per inning pitching for one of the better teams in the NL. You’re not rushing to draft that arm early in drafts, but it’s a pretty nice addition to your rotation later in drafts. Yet, since January 15th, Steele has been drafted at pick 361 as the 96th starting pitcher off the board. There is no risk at all in taking him there. Would I do it in a league with no IL spot? That would be tough given his vague timeline for return, but there’s a chance you’re only holding him for more than a month on your bench, which isn’t the worst thing in the world to add back a guy who could be a fantasy SP3 or SP4 in 2026.
BUY or SELL: BUY AT A DISCOUNT
Shane Bieber – SP, Toronto Blue Jays
At the end of the 2025 season, I placed Bieber in my top 25 starting pitchers when looking ahead to 2026. He had returned from Tommy John surgery. We saw him pitch, and pitch well, in MLB games, and he looked good in the postseason. This seemed to be a great opportunity to get a former ace at a reduced cost due to an injury he had recovered from. Then Bieber surprisingly picked up his $18 million player option to remain in Toronto, and it was revealed that he was dealing with a forearm strain at the end of the season. Given all the elbow issues that Bieber had in 2023 and 2024 before having surgery, the fact that he was already experiencing forearm soreness has me a bit concerned. I’d still draft him if he fell far in a draft, but I’m not anticipating a fully healthy season from him, so I’m baking that into the cost I’m willing to pay.
We then got an update on February 10th that the Blue Jays planned to have Bieber start the year on the IL because the forearm fatigue impacted his offseason ramp-up. He’s fully off my draft boards.
BUY or SELL: SELL
Jared Jones – SP, Pittsburgh Pirates
Jones had an internal brace procedure in May and began throwing in December. We know that he started throwing bullpens in January and that he “is targeting a timeline of sometime between March and May.” There has also been a report that Jones could be used out of the bullpen to start the season, if the Pirates wanted to ramp him up without having him pitch in the minors. That’s intriguing because he would still accrue stats for your team if he’s pitching around five innings per week out of the bullpen; although, I’m not sure that’s how the Pirates will handle it.
Jones was pretty good as a rookie in 2024, posting a 4.19 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, and 132 strikeouts in 121 innings. He is predominantly a two-pitch pitcher, and we saw with Spencer Strider last year how hard it can be for pitchers with just two main pitches to return from a procedure like this. Precise command is even more important if you have a limited arsenal, so that could make this a tight needle to thread for Jones. Add in that he saw some velocity inconsistency with his four-seamer fastball in 2024, and it’s hard to expect too much from Jones in 2026. That said, if his ADP remains after pick 400 and you have an IL spot, it’s not the worst use of a late-round pick.
BUY or SELL: BUY IN IL LEAGUES IF ADP REMAINS DEPRESSED
Jackson Jobe – SP, Detroit Tigers
Clarke Schmidt – SP, New York Yankees
DJ Herz – SP, Washington Nationals
Another quick situation where I’m out on all three.
Jobe had Tommy John surgery in the middle of June and could be back at some point in the second half, but he also had just an 18% strikeout rate in 49 MLB innings last year and needs to optimize his arsenal to get more swing and miss. I’m not waiting until July for that.
Schmidt had internal brace surgery in July of last year, which means he won’t return to the Yankees’ rotation until around August. Just no way I can draft him in a redraft format with that timeframe.
Herz had a really strong winter season heading into 2025, but then he had a UCL sprain in March and had Tommy John surgery in April. The Nationals are not contending next season, so they are going to prioritize ramping him up and building strength, so he may be out for half the season. His command was also an issue even before the elbow surgery, so that’s going to likely be a big concern in 2026.
BUY or SELL: SELL
Syndication: Detroit Free Press
2026 Fantasy Baseball Top 300 Rankings: Judge and Ohtani at the top; Skenes and Skubal in Top 10
Michael Harris II, Sal Stewart and Luis Robert Jr. are on the rise in our 5×5 player rankings for 2026.
Unclear timeline, but could be healthy in spring training
Pablo Lopez – SP, Minnesota Twins
Pablo Lopez is another pitcher who allegedly could have returned to the mound in September if his team had been in contention. However, unlike some of the others, Lopez wasn’t coming off of surgery. Lopez had a lat strain in June and returned in September before dealing with a forearm strain that sidelined him in September, but he should be healthy at the start of the season. His strikeout numbers were down last season, but he did have a 2.74 ERA and 1.11 WHIP in 75.2 innings. I think he has more swing-and-miss upside than he showed last year, and I’d expect him to pitch at least 150 solid innings in 2026. Even at that innings ceiling, I have him inside my top 25 starting pitchers, but he has been drafted as the 41st starting pitcher at pick 145, so, at this cost, I’m in.
BUY or SELL: BUY
Nathan Eovaldi – SP, Texas Rangers
It’s really two injuries for Eovaldi. The right-hander was shut down in August with a rotator cuff strain, but then also underwent sports hernia surgery during the offseason. Eovaldi has said that he’s fully recovered from the rotator cuff strain and that he’s coming into spring training as healthy as he has in years past. That’s the key part for me. I don’t love drafting pitchers who are coming off a rotator cuff injury; however, Eovaldi has battled arm injuries many times throughout his career. When you draft him, you know that you’re getting good production when he’s on the mound, but not a full season of innings. That’s why his draft cost never gets too high, so I won’t be changing the way I draft him in 2026.
BUY or SELL: BUY
Brandon Woodruff – SP, Milwaukee Brewers
Woodruff was supposed to return from shoulder capsule surgery mid-way through the 2025 season, but then he was hit by a line drive in the elbow while pitching in the minors, and then sprained his ankle on the same rehab process. When he did come back, he looked good, posting a 3.20 ERA in 64.2 innings with a 0.91 WHIP and a 32% strikeout rate. A decent amount of that success, in my opinion, was because of his new cutter, which gives him three fastball variations that attack hitters from similar release points, but with different movement profiles. That can be devastatingly confusing for a hitter.
The downside is that Woodruff suffered a lat strain in September and missed the postseason. The team claims that the lat strain is in no way connected to the previous shoulder capsule surgery, but having so many injuries to the shoulder area is concerning. I’m willing to bet that Woodruff will be good again in 2026. I’m just not willing to count on him for more than around 120-130 innings. Given that he is currently being drafted as the 30th starting pitcher at pick 121, that’s a cost I may not be willing to pay up for.
BUY or SELL: SELL AT CURRENT COST
Kris Bubic – SP, Kansas City Royals
Kris Bubic is in a similar boat, in my mind, to Woodruff. He was really good in 2025, but suffered a rotator cuff strain in July and missed the remainder of the season. He has also dealt with shoulder injuries and Tommy John surgery in previous years, which is why he has never pitched more than 130 innings in an MLB season. I think Bubic is a talented pitcher, and I think he’ll be in the Royals’ rotation to start the season, but I’m not banking on more than 130 innings from him so there will have to be a discount if I’m going to take him, and I’d prefer he not be one of the top four starting pitchers on my team.
BUY or SELL: BUY IF THERE’S A DISCOUNT
Kodai Senga – SP, New York Mets
I think I’m going to be fully in on Senga this year, especially at his cost. The right-hander suffered a hamstring injury in June, which sidelined him for a month. After he returned, his performance was inconsistent, and the Mets were struggling to hold onto a playoff spot, so the team sent him to the minors in August. However, despite those struggles after his hamstring injury, Senga still posted a 3.02 ERA in 113 innings. Yes, it came with a 1.31 WHIP and a 23% strikeout rate. That’s not bad production when you factor in the second-half struggles. His strikeout rate was only 24% in the first half, before the injury, which isn’t great, but he had a 1.13 WHIP, so there’s a good chance that he’ll still be a solid source of ratios on a strong Mets team. And what happens if he regains the 29% strikeout rate from 2023? He still has that elite Ghost Fork, none of his injuries were to his arm, and we know he has a spot in the rotation. That’s a gamble I’ll take.
BUY or SELL: BUY
Grant Holmes – SP, Atlanta Braves
In August, Holmes was diagnosed with a partial UCL tear. Instead of opting for surgery, Holmes decided on a non-surgical rest or rehab path. Atlanta is claiming that Holmes is fully healthy and will be full-go for Spring Training. I know that Holmes has said he feels better than he did last year, but this feels like a grenade that could go off at any time, with an upside that’s not high enough for the risk.
BUY or SELL: SELL
Spencer Arrighetti – SP, Houston Astros
Much like with Shane Bieber, I was in on Arrighetti when the 2025 season immediately ended. This was a pitcher who impressed us in 2024 and was going as a top 50 starting pitcher heading into 2025. Then he fractured the thumb on his pitching hand when he was hit with a ball during batting practice. That sidelined him for four months, and he didn’t look like the same pitcher when he returned. Yet, that’s to be expected since the thumb is so crucial to grip and spin for pitchers. I was ready to throw all of 2025 out the window and jump back on the Arrighetti train.
Then I saw a note that reminded me that Arrighetti ended the season on the IL with an elbow strain. It was something he didn’t have to get surgery for, and he was back throwing bullpens by January. He claims he’ll be ready for the start of spring training, but he also isn’t guaranteed a spot in the rotation after the Astros signed Tatsuya Imai, Mike Burrows, and Ryan Weiss to add to a group that also includes Hunter Brown, Cristian Javier, and Lance McCullers Jr. If we add Arrighetti, that’s seven arms competing for five spots. Considering Arrighetti doesn’t have a long MLB track record, and our enthusiasm for him in 2025 was based on perceived growth, a full year lost to an injury and an offseason spent rehabbing instead of developing new skills, is likely to put me off Arrighetti in 2026.
BUY or SELL: SELL
Zach Eflin – SP, Baltimore Orioles
It was a tough season for Eflin, who suffered a lat strain in April and then landed on the IL again in June with a lower back injury. He returned after a month but only pitched in two games before landing on the IL with a back injury again. He would eventually undergo a lumbar microdiscectomy to fix a nerve-related disc issue in his back over the offseason. On one hand, he wasn’t dealing with an arm issue. On the other hand, back injuries for a 32-year-old are a bit concerning. Still, it was a disc issue that was corrected via surgery, so I don’t imagine he’ll have many residual issues in 2026. Over his two healthy seasons in the AL East, he’s essentially been a 3.50 ERA pitcher with a 22% strikeout rate and 1.10 WHIP. That will play in most formats, and that’s why I expect him to get back to that level in 2026.
BUY or SELL: BUY
Other Injured Starting Pitchers
Max Meyer – Miami Marlins: SELL
Hunter Dobbins – St. Louis Cardinals: BUY IN DEEPER FORMATS
Richard Fitts – St. Louis Cardinals: BUY IN DEEPER FORMATS
Sawyer Gipson-Long – Detroit Tigers: SELL
Jacob Lopez – Athletics: SELL
Patrick Sandoval – Boston Red Sox: SELL
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