With the All-Star game taking place Tuesday night, it’s the perfect time to break down the NL CY Young race between the 23-year-old Paul Skenes versus 35-year-old Zack Wheeler and why one player is the better bet than the other.
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NL CY Young: Paul Skenes (-105) vs Zack Wheeler (-125)
Wheeler’s calling card to voters is simple — he’s never won a CY Young. At age 35, this could be Wheeler’s final shot at the elusive award, but is what he’s done enough or more impressive than Skenes?
understand the logic of betting Wheeler, but if you’ve watched the two pitch this season, I think Skenes is the better of the two and arguably the best in all of baseball (Tarik Skubal says hi). However, if you look at basic stats and their consistency, you would say Wheeler has the slight edge, right?
Pre All-Star Break Stats and NL Ranks
|
Paul Skenes |
Zach Wheeler |
|
2.01 ERA (1st) |
2.36 ERA (6th) |
| 121.0 innings pitched (5th) |
122.0 innings pitched (T-3rd) |
|
.189 opponent batting average (T-3rd) |
.181 opponent batting average (1st) |
|
0.93 WHIP (5th) |
0.86 WHIP (2nd) |
|
131 strikeouts (8th) |
154 strikeouts (2nd) |
|
12 starts with 0 or 1 ER allowed |
11 starts with 0 or 1 ER allowed |
|
3 games of 3 ER or more |
4 games of 3 ER or more |
|
4 wins (T-104th) |
9 wins (T-8th) |
|
8 losses (tied-20th most) |
3 losses (T-4th best) |
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There isn’t much that differentiates the two besides the wins, losses, and strikeouts, which all favor Wheeler. Skenes does have 26 more ground-balls than Wheeler and seven fewer homers allowed (13 to 6), which may bother some. Skenes clearly isn’t trying to be that high-rate strikeout guy like early in his rookie season, but get more efficient outs and pitch longer into games — which he’s done exceptionally well.
However, while wins and losses historically are a common driving factor for voters, it’s becoming not as detrimental since the offense is out of the pitchers control, more so than ever with the universal DH — meaning Skenes could have the upper hand.
If you haven’t seen or heard about that stat by now here it is — If the Pirates would have scored four runs in each of Skenes’ 42 career starts, his win-loss record would be 28-1 rather than 15-10.
Insanity at its finest! While four runs is a lot for any pitcher to get, that stat is supposed to provide clarity on how poor the Pirates offense and bullpen is and why that shouldn’t hold Skenes back in CY Young voting.
In his career wins, Skenes has a 1.19 ERA compared to a 2.39 ERA in losses or non-decisions, so either way, he hasn’t been the Buccos’ problem since he arrived. This year alone, Skenes has allowed 27 runs over 20 starts and the Pirates have lost 11 of those 20 games!
Pittsburgh’s offense has scored the fewest runs in not just the NL, but all of baseball — even the Rockies and White Sox. For more context, the Phillies have scored 112 more runs than the Pirates in one less game.
Both Skenes and Wheeler will be dominant in the second-half, I have no doubts, but Skenes could post a sub 2.00 ERA this season (was doing so through 19 starts), sub .200 OBA, and still have a losing record, which on surface level makes no sense.
Despite how it looks or sounds, I think what Skenes is doing weighs more impressive, challenging, and deserving than what Wheeler is doing. Pitching under the pressure of allowing two earned runs and being almost guaranteed a loss is not common and that’s what Skenes goes through every start.
I played and tweeted Skenes out at +115 to win NL CY Young and would go out to -115 odds prior to his first start for the second half of the year. I already played him at +300 on Opening Day to win CY Young, so I am double-dipping.
Pick: Paul Skenes to win NL CY Young (1u)
Vaughn Dalzell’s MLB Futures Card
2 units: Aaron Judge to lead MLB in home runs (+130)
2 units: Cam Smith to win AL Rookie of the Year (+150)
2 units: Jacob Misiorowski to win NL Rookie of the Year (-110)
1 unit: Shohei Ohtani to win NL MVP (-110)
1 unit: Bobby Witt to win AL MVP (+450)
1 unit: Elly De La Cruz to win NL MVP (+2000)
1 unit: Garrett Crochet to win AL CY Young (+450)
1 unit: Paul Skenes to win NL CY Young (+115)
1 unit: Paul Skenes to win NL CY Young (+300)
1 unit: Jacob Misiorowski to win NL Rookie of the Year (+100)
1 unit: Byron Buxton to win AL Comeback Player of the Year (+430)
1 unit: New York Yankees to win AL East (-115)
0.5 unit: Dodgers to win 117-plus games (+650)
0.5 unit: Paul Skenes to lead MLB in wins (+1400)
0.5 unit: Garrett Crochet to lead MLB in wins (+2200)
0.5 unit: Juan Soto to lead the MLB in homers (+2800)
0.5 unit: Yordan Alvarez to lead the MLB in homers (+2000)
0.5 unit: Roman Anthony to win AL Rookie of the Year (+1200)
0.5 unit: Jacob Misiorowski to win NL Rookie of the Year (+1100)
0.25 unit: Drew Pomeranz to win NL Reliever of the Year (+1500)
0.25 unit: Aaron Judge to bat .400 by the All-Star break (+800)
0.25 unit: Aaron Judge to bat .400 for the season (+5500)
0.25 unit: Oneil Cruz to lead MLB in stolen bases (+15000)
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