Coming off of a historic game on Friday night in which he became the first Major League Baseball rookie to hit four home runs, the general public has been introduced to Athletics rookie first baseman Nick Kurtz. This is coming off a week where the 22-year-old Kurtz was named the AL Player of the Week.
The betting market has taken notice as well.
Kurtz opened up far down the odds board to win American League Rookie of the Year at BetMGM with 80-1 odds. New York Yankees outfielder Jasson Dominguez opened as the favorite at +600. It wasn’t all smooth sailing for Kurtz, as Yahoo’s Jordan Shusterman detailed in this article, as he went through and 0-for-21 skid in May before breaking out and becoming the best hitter in baseball in July.
On June 14, Kurtz was down to 14-1 odds (tied for the second-best odds), but still a massive underdog to his Athletics teammate Jacob Wilson, who was -1000 to win the AL ROY. That equates to roughly a 90.9% chance to win the award.
Even five days ago on July 21, Wilson was the +100 favorite at BetMGM and Kurtz was second at +160. Wilson had second-most wagers (11%, behind the Royals’ Jac Caglionone) and by far the most money of any player at 33%. Wilson also represented the sportsbook’s biggest liability on the award.
But after Friday night’s offensive explosion, Kurtz became the odds-on favorite for the first time all season and now has -2000 odds to win, an implied probability of 95% to win the award.
It’s an astonishing baseball — and betting — story, and one we’ll be sure to follow throughout the rest of the season.
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