It might be Super Bowl week, but it’s never too soon to start thinking about your fantasy baseball drafts. As you begin to prepare for the 2025 MLB season, the Rotoworld staff recently got together to offer their insight on some early sleeper hitters to keep in mind.
The word “fantasy sleeper” often elicits an eye-roll, but the main goal here is to target a player who is in a good position to outproduce their average draft position (ADP) and/or take advantage of a playing time opportunity.
We’ll drop our early sleeper pitchers on Wednesday, February 5 and then repeat the exercise in the early weeks of spring training.
TOP REMAINING MLB FREE AGENTS: BREGMAN, ALONSO, KERSHAW
FANTASY BASEBALL SLEEPER HITTERS FOR 2025
Josh Lowe OF, Tampa Bay Rays
Remember when everyone loved Lowe last year? He wound up getting hurt and striking out too much, but he continued to hit the ball plenty hard when he made contact and he went 25-for-26 stealing bases in his 106 games. Now he’s getting out of Tropicana Field, where he has a .693 OPS that’s far worse than his career mark of .798 on the road, and going to play for a year in a ballpark that should be quite a bit friendlier to left-handed power hitters. He’ll probably continue to do a fair amount of sitting against lefties, though there doesn’t seem to be a clear platoon partner for him on the Rays roster at the moment. He’ll also continue to strike out a fair amount, though since the Trop was a factor there, too, he should do somewhat better. A 20 HR-20 SB season seems likely, and he probably won’t hurt a team’s batting average in the process. – Matthew Pouliot
Kyle Manzardo, 1B, Cleveland Guardians
Manzardo struggled when first called up to the Guardians over the summer, but he was much better upon his second promotion in September as seen in a slash of .270/.333/.540 with five homers in 69 at-bats. Cleveland was so impressed with Manzardo that he not only was playing against right-handed pitching, but hitting second in the ALCS in multiple games. The 24-year-old’s metrics aren’t terribly impressive, but the fact he was able to barrel the baseball 9.8 percent of the time as a rookie with a solid if unspectacular chase rate of 27.6 percent shows that he’s a patient hitter with impressive left-handed power, and his 40 percent hard-hit percentage is far from an abhorrent number as well. Yes Manzardo is limited to first base and he won’t help you in the steals category, but it’s pretty easy to see a 25-homer, 80-RBI season with an average that helps more than hurts. You can do a lot worse. – Christopher Crawford
Matt Chapman 3B, San Francisco Giants
In 2024, Chapman hit .247 with 27 home runs, 98 runs scored, 78 RBI and 15 stolen bases. He earned a contract extension halfway through his first year with the Giants. The 15 stolen bases were by far a career-high as the 31-year-old third baseman had never topped even four stolen bases in a single-season. THE BAT X has Chapman projected for .244, 30 home runs, 84 runs scored, 88 RBI and seven stolen bases in 2025. That’s essentially repeating his ‘24, yet Chapman’s January NFBC ADP in the Draft Champions format is 137.52. He’s going a good bit later than Mark Vientos, Junior Caminero and Royce Lewis despite offering a very solid floor. He’s only going a few spots ahead of Alex Bregman, whose walk rate cratered last year and is still without a team with spring training approaching. Chapman isn’t a deep sleeper, but is certainly an undervalued option. – Nick Shlain
Fantasy baseball breakout candidates: Vinnie Pasquantino leads hitters entering their prime years in 2025
Eric Samulski breaks down a group of intriguing hitters who are entering their peak years.
Parker Meadows, OF, Detroit Tigers
Meadows got off to an ice-cold start last year leading to a demotion to Triple-A Toledo where he made a mechanical adjustment to his swing to be more direct to the ball. The results were almost immediate upon returning to the majors as he tore the cover off the ball for the final two months, posting a stratospheric .296/.340/.500 triple-slash line with five homers and five steals over his final 47 contests. He’s poised to lead off every day against right-handed pitching as the primary table-setter for Detroit’s rapidly improving offensive nucleus that also features Gleyber Torres, Riley Greene and Kerry Carpenter. The 25-year-old former prospect appears on the precipice of a potential 20-homer, 30-steal breakthrough campaign if last year’s swing adjustment was the missing ingredient to unlocking his vast potential. He’s the ideal relatively low-risk boom-or-bust target in the middle rounds of fantasy drafts this spring. – George Bissell
Trevor Larnach OF, Minnesota Twins
Having Trevor Larnarch as a sleeper is about opportunity and draft cost. Larnach’s ADP in NFBC drafts began to fall a bit in January, but then steadily rose again, and he’s going off the board around pick 440 heading into February. That surprises me considering Larnach is now the starting DH in Minnesota with Max Kepler signing with the Phillies and Alex Kirilloff retiring. The Twins are the most platoon-heavy team in baseball, so Larnach won’t play against lefties, but in 2024 he slashed .261/.342/.441 with 15 home runs, a 9.9% barrel rate, an 85.8% zone contact rate, and a 12.2% swinging strike rate in 377 plate appearances against right-handed pitchers. Plus, as the season went on, Larnach increased his fly ball rate which led to six home runs in 182 plate appearances in the second half and his OPS jumping from .738 in the first half to .811 to go along with a .272 batting average. The lack of competition for his role means Larnach should see around 500 plate appearances with a .260 average, 20 home runs, and some chip-in steals while hitting in the middle of the batting order. He’ll be more valuable in daily moves leagues, but I think he’s going over 150 picks too late right now. – Eric Samulski
José Tena 3B, Washington Nationals
One of the most obvious sleepers to me on offense is Nationals’ presumptive third baseman José Tena. The 23-year-old more than held his own in his first prolonged action in the big leagues, slashing .274/.305/.363 with three long balls, 15 RBI and six swipes in only164 plate appearances I his strong rookie campaign. He possesses that dynamic blend of power and speed that all fantasy managers dream of and he should have an everyday role in a much improved Nationals’ lineup that has added Nathaniel Lowe and Josh Bell over the winter. He’ll contribute in power and speed and will do so without being a liability in batting average or with his counting stats. That type of skillset is incredibly difficult to find – especially after pick-400 which is where Tena currently resides. He’s the rare late-round gem that can become an integral piece of your everyday lineup. – David Shovein
Ryan Mountcastle 1B, Baltimore Orioles
Mountcastle hasn’t been able to replicate the 30-homer power he displayed in 2021. However, it appears to be mostly due to a change in approach that coincides with the team’s adjustments to the left field wall after the 2021 season. In 2021, Camden Yards ranked as the second-best park for right-handed hitters, according to Statcast Park Factors. Since then, it’s 18th. With the left-field wall pushed back, we’ve seen Mountcastle’s power dwindle despite steady hard-hit metrics as he’s lowered his pull rate to hit to all parts of the field. Well, the team is moving the walls back in for 2025. With that shift, we could see Mountcastle pull more fly balls and unlock more power, making him a potential value where he’s going late in drafts. – Jorge Montanez
Jordan Walker OF, St. Louis Cardinals
Not sure where, when, how, or why the industry made Walker an afterthought. He was a mega-prospect with all-world power and plus speed who debuted at 20 years old and had a 116 wRC+ in 465 plate appearances as a rookie all while learning a brand new position on the fly. Many predicted the big breakout before last season, but he was hastily sent back to triple-A after 67 (horrible) PAs when the struggling Cardinals needed to shake things up. Oddly enough, he made two fly ball outs during that stretch that traveled at least 398 feet. Imagine if those left the yard? His whole season could’ve been different. Alas, now he has the runway for a full-season without the fear of demotion as the Cardinals seem committed to giving him everyday at-bats. Whole he’ll have to rediscover some of his 2023 plate discipline and figure out how to either lift or pull the ball consistently – ideally both – to hit his lofty ceiling, he’s an oddly safe bet for 20 home runs, 10 stolen bases, and a .250 batting average while being drafted around pick 300. – James Schiano
Read the full article here
