2024 Fantasy Baseball Breakout: Michael King

Michael King was always an afterthought. First, going to the Marlins in the 12th round of the 2016 draft out of Boston College. Then, being traded to the Yankees as a throw-in in a deal that was predominantly to acquire international bonus pool money in their pursuit of Shohei Ohtani. Later, as an ascending as a relief pitcher that couldn’t make his way back into the rotation.

Yet, he finally did get back to the rotation full-time and became one of baseball’s best pitchers this past season.

Here, I’m going to talk about the adjustments he made on his way to breaking out, why they worked, and what to expect from him next season.

I’ve been writing breakout pieces like this all offseason. Check out how Tarik Skubal became the best pitcher in baseball, why Hunter Greene is on the path to becoming an ace, what gives Bryce Miller a sky-high ceiling, and why Bailey Ober was hiding in plain sight.

Role Call

Obviously, moving from the bullpen to the rotation was the key reason King broke out. In fact, he did it before it was cool – shoutout Seth Lugo for truly blazing the trail – and likely paved the way for Reynaldo López, Jordan Hicks, Clay Holmes, and possibly Jeff Hoffman to do the same.

Unlike that group, King converted in-season. That was a risk, but it worked and showed the league his lofty potential as a starter. It was such a success the Yankees were able to use him as the centerpiece in their trade for Juan Soto just a few months later.

So, what made this move for King possible? And how did he transition so smoothly?

First off, King, like nearly every reliever, was a starting pitcher first. He logged over 300 innings in the minor leagues as a starter between 2017 and 2018 as a member of the Marlins’ and Yankees’ organizations. Then, he made 10 total starts in 2020 and 2021 before becoming a full-time reliever the following season.

King maintained his starters’ repertoire when he moved to the bullpen. He was one of just 22 relievers who threw a minimum of 50 IP to use four different pitches at least 10% of the time that season. Other current starters Lugo and Nick Martinez were also in that group.

Additionally, King wielded two plus fastballs – his four-seamer and sinker. As a reliever in 2023, they had a 104 and 111 Stuff+, respectively. After moving to the rotation, they held true at 109 and 108.

He was one of just 13 starting pitchers who had both an above average four-seamer and sinker by Stuff+. Of course, he only threw 38 1/3 IP as a starter and sat just under five innings per start in that first stint back in the rotation. That allowed him to maintain his velocity from the bullpen and inflate those stuff numbers some. Still, that sinker is ridiculous.
To go along with the sinker, King’s sweeper has always been a true out-pitch. It darts across the zone from King’s low, cross-body release and had the fourth-most horizontal movement in baseball when he moved to the rotation. This thing is a frisbee.

Those three pitches along with his changeup allowed him to hit the ground running and pitch his way to a 1.88 ERA as a starter in 2023.

Re-Adjust

So, King had the stuff to be a starter, excelled there in a short stint, and had that role clearly defined for him once in San Diego. All systems go, right? Right?

Wrong. King was torched for a 5.00 ERA across six starts through last March and April. He couldn’t get ahead in the count, walked too many batters (5.2 BB/9), and gave up far too many home runs (10 in 36 IP).

All of these issues could be traced back to his fastballs not maintaining their same level of effectiveness as the season before. Each were a few ticks slower and their Stuff+ each dropped below 80! That’s so bad it’s past the danger zone and in the “something might be really wrong” zone.

Results backed up these scary numbers. Opposing batters slugged .726 against them with a .455 xwOBA and smacked nine home runs. For comparison’s sake, Aaron Judge had a .701 SLG and .479 xwOBA last season. Every time King threw a fastball last March or April, it was as if Judge was in the batter’s box.

At this point, King had two similarly sized samples across two seasons as a starter: in one, he was lights-out and in the other, he was awful.

Yet, he and Padres’ pitching coach Ruben Niebla stayed the course. King needed both of his fastballs to be a successful starter, as the rest of his repertoire wasn’t deep enough to ditch one.

They tapered down his four seam usage a tad, especially when ahead in the count. He also located them up in the zone more consistently. Check out the heat maps of his fastball against hitters from each side of the plate. First is March and April, then the rest of the season.

Fewer fastballs down the middle is almost always a good thing. King was able to live there in the past when his fastball had more zip. As its stuff waned, his command became more important and helped pull that fastball from the doldrums.

That was a very logical adjustment. Or, at least something the average pitcher who was struggling with their fastball would try. This was not the case for his sinker.

While it was hit hard in general, that sinker played well against left-handed batters in a limited sample (+1 Run Value). That’s abnormal for a right-handed pitcher as opposite-handed sinkers are sometimes considered taboo for the average pitcher.

King and his sinker are not average, though. It has plus-plus movement and he has fantastic command overall. That allowed him to be more creative and daring with that pitch than most other pitchers can afford to be. Look at the differences in where he located it in March and April versus the rest of the season.

Again, less pitches right down the middle is great. But more specifically, King began locating that sinker on the lefties’ front hip. Few have the ability to weaponize it in that way and he was able to force some outrageous called strikes doing so.

King’s sinker became his second-most thrown pitch against lefties after May 1st and he was using it more regularly as a put-away pitch. He also threw it significantly more often against righties. Here’s Mookie Betts looking silly against one for good measure.

Overall, the results against King’s fastballs improved dramatically from May through the rest of the season.

This helped to usher in what would be a dominant summer for him.

Keep them Guessing

King came out on the other side of those tough early months with one of the most audacious gameplans in baseball. He did things from a command perspective that most other pitchers won’t even try, let alone center their game around it.

Just check out his pitch usage against left-handed batters from May onward.

I already told you about the wicked front-hip sinkers against lefties. Possibly more brazen than that, King’s most commonly thrown first pitch to them was his sweeper. The only way he could get away with that was throwing them back-door, and that’s exactly what he did.

Generally, righty pitchers don’t throw many sweepers to lefty batters because they perform much better against righty hitters.

Rather, King had the gumption to start the bulk of his at-bats against lefties with them. More than trust in one’s stuff, that shows a ton of trust in one’s command.

Lastly, his most thrown pitcher overall to lefties was his changeup – another pitch whose effectiveness is closely tied to command. While that alone was not particularly crazy, King threw that changeup as often when he was behind in the count as he was ahead or had two strikes on a batter. That’s only possibly with pinpoint command and confidence.

King needed to find a way to hide his four seam fastball against lefties and this bizarre, unconventional plan of attack worked like a charm.

With this, he no longer had any holes in his game and ran roughshod through the entire league.

Results

Once all these adjustments coalesced, King became one of the best pitchers in baseball. After May 1st, his 2.42 ERA was third-lowest in the league and he allowed two or fewer runs in 20 of 24 starts.

As one of the best run-suppressors in the league, King was a master at limiting hard contact. After allowing 10 home runs in April alone, he surrendered just seven total the rest of the season. He was in the 99th percentile in exit velocity against, 97th percentile in hard-hit rate against, and had the lowest squared-up rate for any starting pitcher in the league after May 1st.

That last piece of data intuitively makes sense given King’s adjustments after April. Lefties teed off on him early and couldn’t figure him out afterwards. Also, his sinker was devastating against righties and is one of the most difficult pitches to square-up in the league. This is a cool piece of analysis that’s come from new Bat Tracking data.

All in all, he wound up as the 17th most valuable starting pitcher in the league according to FanGraphs’ Player Rater. That was ahead of George Kirby, Aaron Nola, and Luis Castillo.

What’s Next?

The fantasy community is bullish on King at the moment. He’s being drafted as the 16th starting pitcher off the board over the last three weeks in the same glob as Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Gerrit Cole, Pablo Lopez, and Framber Valdez.

Eric Samulski ranked King as the 10th starting pitcher for 2025 a few months back. Pitcher List’s Nick Pollock has him at ninth on his preliminary rankings. Fantasy Pros spotted him at 13th and Yahoo has him 11th on their early rankings. So, the market is technically behind where many of the experts would place him.

Personally, I think that’s fair. Command isn’t as sticky year-to-year as stuff is. Meaning, one’s command is more likely to go through normal inconsistencies than one’s stuff. King’s game plan was so bold from a command standpoint that any minor hiccup could set him off track.

While it was pure poetry last season, I’m worried about how weirdly he attacked lefties and how sustainable it can be for another entire season. Yet, maybe this is just me being stupid in thinking lefty hitters can adequately prepare for first-pitch back-door sweepers,nasty front-hip sinkers, and changeups on the black in every count.

There should also be confidence in his workload with over 170 innings pitched last season and he’ll still pitch his home games in PetCo Park, one of the best pitchers’ parks in the league.

At the end of the day, his sinker, sweeper, and changeup are all plus pitches and his command is exceptional. That should establish a safe enough floor for him to be at least a low-end SP1 with upside for more.