The NFL Draft only spans three days, but the news cycle surrounding the draft runs for 365 days each year.
Mock drafts for the next draft start the day one draft wraps up, if not sooner, and prognosticators work hard to project when and where the top prospects will be drafted all the way until Roger Goodell comes out to the podium on draft night.
The mock drafts don’t always get it right, for one reason or another. Numerous players have lasted far longer in the draft than they expected, whether due to injury concerns, off-field issues, or other red flags that few saw coming.
Here’s a look back at the biggest NFL Draft slides of all time, from Aaron Rodgers to Laremy Tunsil.
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What were biggest NFL Draft slides of all time?
1. Aaron Rodgers (2005)
Rodgers suffered perhaps the most shocking draft night tumble of all time when he entered with hopes of being selected No. 1 overall by his hometown 49ers but instead fell all the way to the Packers at No. 24. Cameras fixated on Rodgers in the green room in New York City. While some prospects try their best to hide their dismay, Rodgers’ frustration seemed palpable until Green Bay finally ended his slide.
“On the inside, there was a lot of disappointment and embarrassment,” Rodgers later said about the long wait to hear his name called, feeling that the players who were taken before him were not on the same level.
After a three-year wait behind Brett Favre, whose presence in Green Bay likely only added confusion to a bizarre night for Rodgers, the Cal product got his chance and ran with it, winning a Super Bowl and four MVP awards with the Packers.
2. Dan Marino (1983)
Marino’s final season at Pittsburgh wasn’t as strong as he had hoped, but a drug rumor ultimately cost him just as much on draft night. The Hall of Famer was the sixth quarterback off the board in the 1983 NFL Draft, falling all the way to the No. 27 pick, where the Dolphins ended his slide.
Unsubstantiated rumors about Marino’s drug use along with his Pitt teammates spread leading up to the draft, and NFL teams didn’t know what to believe at that point.
“It started off with just the idea that he was partying,” reporter Ray Didinger told Bleacher Report. “Then it grew more sinister from that.”
Marino hadn’t even met then-Dolphins coach Don Shula before the draft because Miami didn’t expect to be able to draft him, but his slide ended with the Dolphins selecting him No. 27 overall.
3. Laremy Tunsil (2016)
Tunsil owns the most bizarre draft night slide in NFL history, as he fell from a potential top-five selection in 2016 to the No. 13 pick after a video surfaced of him smoking marijuana with a gas mask minutes before the start of the first round.
The video was actually posted on his hacked Twitter account, and it happened so close to the start of the draft that the uncertainty appeared to scare a few teams off. The Ravens opted for tackle Ronnie Stanley at No. 6 overall, while the Titans took tackle Jack Conklin at No. 8, removing two landing spots for Tunsil. Miami ended his fall at No. 13.
“I was panicking a little bit, and I’m just like ‘Don’t let my mom and my auntie see this,'” Tunsil later told ESPN, explaining that he didn’t have much time to react.
The gas mask video wasn’t all that clouded Tunsil’s stock, as he was involved in a domestic violence incident involving his stepfather while at Ole Miss and served an NCAA suspension for it. Still, he was considered a potential top-five pick entering a whirlwind of a draft night.
4. Brady Quinn (2007)
After a stellar career at Notre Dame, Brady Quinn initially looked like a potential top-three pick in the 2007 NFL Draft. After he heard from the Browns that they would not be taking him No. 3 overall, Quinn believed the Dolphins were his floor at No. 9.
“The consensus from a number of people was that it would be Miami,” Quinn later said. “I had a good workout. It made sense. They needed a quarterback, and someone within the Dolphins organization had sent my college coach a Dolphins hat.”
The Dolphins, however, selected WR Ted Ginn Jr., and Quinn fell all the way to No. 22, where he got the Browns to bite and trade up with the Cowboys to end the slide.
Quinn didn’t come with injury or off-field concerns. Teams simply soured on him, and they turned out to be much more accurate in their evaluations than anyone else as Quinn failed to develop into a long-term starter.
5. La’el Collins (2015)
Collins’ slide wasn’t exactly a draft night stunner, but he went from a likely first-round pick to undrafted in a matter of days.
Teams learned two days before the draft that the LSU offensive lineman was being questioned in a murder investigation of a pregnant woman. While Collins wasn’t considered a suspect, fresh in the minds of front offices was the conviction two weeks earlier of former Patriots TE Aaron Hernandez on a first-degree murder charge. Initially, reports in 2013 claimed the same about Hernandez, alleging he was not a suspect.
With so little time to clear up the uncertainty, every team stayed away from Collins in the draft. He was not selected, but he was cleared in the days following the draft and signed with the Cowboys to start what would be a successful career.
6. Randy Moss (1998)
Like another future star receiver, Randy Moss slipped all the way out of the top 20 before landing with the Vikings. Unlike Justin Jefferson, who was just underestimated, Moss came with some red flags.
Moss was considered one of the top talents in the draft, but a checkered legal history sank him on draft night. He was denied entry to Notre Dame after he was charged with battery for his involvement in a fight, spent 30 days in jail, and was dismissed from Florida State after a positive marijuana test that sent him back to prison as a probation violation.
After a better stint at Marshall, Moss established himself as a premier prospect, only to fall to No. 21 in the 1998 draft.
Moss’ slide wasn’t overly shocking because his concerns were well-known heading into the event. He even addressed the possibility beforehand, saying every team that passes on him would regret the decision. With the exception of the Colts, who took Peyton Manning with the top pick, he was right.
7. Geno Smith (2013)
The 2013 draft was known to have an exceptionally weak crop of quarterbacks, but Geno Smith was considered the only surefire first-rounder of the bunch. When the first round ended, however, EJ Manuel was the only quarterback off the board.
Smith was passed up 38 times before the Jets ended his slide at No. 39 overall, bringing an awkward 24 hours to a close. The West Virginia star returned to the green room for the second round and got his moment in front of plenty of Jets fans at Radio City Music Hall, where the draft was being held.
“It’s been tough. It’s been hard to gut out,” an emotional Smith told ESPN on stage. “But I’m a man first, and I stand up here today because God has kept me.”
Smith didn’t come with off-field or injury concerns; teams simply didn’t view him as highly as most in the media believed. While his stint with the Jets wasn’t a success, Smith carved out easily the best and longest career of any quarterback taken in 2013.
8. DK Metcalf (2019)
Like Smith, DK Metcalf didn’t come with any off-field concerns, and a neck injury suffered in 2018 wasn’t believed to be a serious issue. A bruising, imposing receiver with shocking speed for his size, Metcalf looked the part of a legitimate first-round prospect, and many fans and media members bought into it.
While Metcalf’s stock slipped to the late first round by the time draft night rolled around, no one expected him to last all the way to the final pick of the second round. The Seahawks were glad to see him fall into their lap not long after the Titans took Metcalf’s teammate A.J. Brown, but how did all of those teams let it happen?
While Metcalf was strong and exceptionally fast, there were concerns about his agility. He could run straight, but could he move left and right? Along with perhaps some lingering uncertainty about his neck injury, Metcalf slid much further than anyone expected.
9. Johnny Manziel (2014)
Manziel was taken No. 22 overall by the Browns in 2014, a spot that sounded about right compared to where the former Heisman Trophy winner’s stock was at the start of the pre-draft process. In a quarterback class without a clear top talent, however, buzz started to build leading up to the draft that he could be a top-10 pick.
Teddy Bridgewater didn’t appear to be sticking as a top-five selection, and few expected Blake Bortles to come off the board as high as No. 3. After the Jaguars drafted Bortles, Manziel continued to slide. The Browns were thought to be a possible landing spot at No. 8, but they took CB Justin Gilbert. Some thought the Cowboys could take Manziel at No. 16, but owner Jerry Jones was overruled by his son, who preferred guard Zack Martin.
Manziel lasted all the way until No. 22 when the Browns traded back up to make the pick many expected them to make 14 selections earlier. The buzz surrounding Manziel gave Cleveland some life, but both his off-field concerns and questions about his size turned out to be legitimate; Manziel was out of the NFL within two years.
10. Thurman Thomas (1988)
A future Hall of Famer, Thomas saw his draft experience last much longer than expected due partly to a knee injury he suffered at Oklahoma State. Thomas was the eighth running back off the board in the 1988 draft, slipping to No. 40 overall, where the Bills added him to their offense.
The rest is history, as he went on to have an outstanding career and win four AFC championships in Buffalo, but the draft itself was painful. Thomas had a camera crew in his home on draft night, only for the cameras to capture him falling asleep on the couch as he waited to hear his name called.
Memorable reactions to NFL Draft slides
Browns fans attending the 2014 draft were elated when Cleveland ended Johnny Manziel’s slide, and so was Jon Gruden. An ESPN analyst at the time, Gruden was all-in on Manziel as an NFL franchise quarterback and was thrilled to see the Heisman Trophy winner finally come off the board.
As Aaron Rodgers sat awkwardly in the green room waiting to hear his name called in 2005, ESPN’s panel offered him an important reminder: other players have gone through the same experience and gone on to have Hall of Fame careers. As it turned out, they nailed it.
Geno Smith initially decided not to return to the green room after getting passed up in the first round, but he came back to Radio City Music Hall the following night and appeared glad he did, putting a big smile on his face when the Jets drafted him No. 39 overall in 2013.
Why do NFL Draft slides happen?
The most shocking draft slides in NFL history have largely had one of three common themes: injury concerns, off-field concerns, or simply a misunderstanding of how teams viewed a particular player.
In the cases of Smith and Metcalf, for example, teams just were not as high on them as the fans and media believed. Someone like Da’Quan Bowers, on the other hand, had more serious injury concerns than most understood, while Tunsil and Collins found themselves in concerning off-field situations that ultimately didn’t have much of an impact on their careers.
Sometimes, draft slides are quickly understandable. The public knew about Bowers’ knee concerns in 2011, which caused him to fall to the second round, and the investigation surrounding Collins in 2015, but the impact might not have been fully understood until draft night. In other cases, the news comes out of nowhere. Teams have more access to medical reports about each player than fans or media, so word about a significant injury concern might spread between front offices before it reaches the public.
Financial impact of draft day slides
Since 2011, rookies have not had much room for negotiation in their first NFL contracts. Rookie salaries are determined by their draft position, so an unexpected slide of even a few picks can cost a player millions of dollars.
Tunsil, for example, would have signed a deal for about $23.3 million if he was selected No. 5 overall in 2016. Because he fell to No. 13, he signed a deal totaling $12.46 million.
The Eagles’ selections of Quinyon Mitchell and Cooper DeJean are another cautionary tale of the impact a draft slide can have. Both Mitchell and DeJean were considered mid-to-late first-round prospects, but Mitchell went No. 22 overall while DeJean slid to No. 40 overall. Because of the rookie wage scale, Mitchell slotted in with a $14.8 million contract while DeJean received $9.3 million as the No. 40 pick.
Teams that benefited most from draft day slides
Plenty of the most famous draft slides involve players who went on to prove those draft night concerns wrong.
Regardless of how his tenure in Green Bay ended, Rodgers was a complete coup for the Packers. He allowed the franchise to seamlessly transition from Favre, winning a Super Bowl in his third season as a starter and four MVPs. He kept the Packers consistently near the top of the NFL despite only winning the one Lombardi Trophy.
The Dolphins were transformed by Marino’s surprise availability at No. 27 overall in 1983, while the Vikings picked up a Hall of Famer in Moss in 1996 (and saw history repeat itself when Justin Jefferson was still on the board at No. 22 in 2020).
While not nearly at the Hall of Fame level of some other players who slid, La’el Collins played his first two seasons for the Cowboys on a salary of less than $1 million despite the LSU product being considered a first-round talent. Collins was quite the steal for Dallas, helping solidify an already strong offensive line, but he got his money eventually with long-term contracts.
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